Scattered thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours ahead of a low pressure system moving through the region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours ahead of a low pressure system moving through the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 24, 12:42 PM EST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 142 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley today. Drier weather is expected for Wednesday through Thursday before a tropical system provides a chance of precipitation late this week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Morning update... Primary line of showers and thunderstorms is moving through the lower Scioto Valley including northeast Kentucky. Behind the line, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have formed primarily across the greater Cincinnati area including Wilmington. This scattered development is forming within a belt of modest southwesterly low-level flow which is allowing for moist ascent over the area. Highest PoPs have been adjusted to the east for the near term, with 30-40 PoP through the next few hours across the moist ascent region. No major changes to the afternoon expectations. The area is split on two specific severe threat factors: 1. A surface low to the northwest will supply more favorable low-level wind shear across portions of west-central Ohio later this afternoon, perhaps modifying low-level turning of the winds. Can't rule out a few organized storms in this location with a tornado possible. 2. Across the south (SPC Day 1 Slight Risk) and north of the Ohio River, stronger deep-layer shear supports a better chance for a few organized storms with large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two possible. The SPC tornado threat (2%) continues north of the Slight Risk, roughly along and south of the I-71 corridor. Shear decreases north of this area, but it will still be strong enough to support organized storms. Timing: While ongoing new development may gradually become strong, the primary window for severe weather potential is between 1pm and 7pm. After the thunderstorms this afternoon, PoPs trend down into the evening and overnight, except for locations across the far southeast. Moisture advection and an approaching upper level low will aid in continued shower or light rain development through Wednesday morning. Previous discussion... A swath of showers will decrease later this morning as a mid- level impulse continues off to the east. Behind this energy, a lull in the precipitation and perhaps thinning of the clouds will likely allow for some destabilization to occur. The degree of instability we achieve brings some uncertainty to the forecast for this afternoon, with models ranging from 1000J/kg to nearly 2500J/kg. A wave of surface low pressure accompanying the parent mid-level shortwave will offer an increased vertical shear profile. The 00Z HRRR has 40-50 knots of effective shear this afternoon during our peak in diurnal instability. Bottom line for this afternoon will be the threat for a few storms containing damaging winds. Also can't rule out a tornado or two if storm-scale backing of the surface winds occurs. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The surface low will move away to the north this evening leaving a trailing surface boundary laid out in the vicinity of our northeast Kentucky counties. Have held onto PoPs in this area closest to the boundary. Otherwise, tonight and Wednesday will generally be drier than today with the lack of a stronger forcing mechanism. Temperatures will range from near 80 along and southeast of Interstate 71 with cooler highs in the 70s to the northwest. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models continue to show tropical moisture lifting northward toward our area Thursday into Friday. There remains some uncertainty as to how far north it will actually make it before it begins to get wrapped into the deeper upper level low situated over the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. Nonetheless, it does look like a decent chance for showers to make it at least up into our southern forecast area per the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. Will therefore go with likely pops across the south, trimming back to chance in our north, with the highest QPF expected along and south of the Ohio River. The upper level low will slowly weaken and open up into a trough as it lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes through the weekend and into early next week. With moisture continuing to rotate around the low, will hang to occasional chances for showers through the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures will be fairly seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s through the weekend. Somewhat cooler temperatures are expected on Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thunderstorm activity lull early this afternoon, but development is already beginning again across southern & western Indiana as well as western Kentucky. This activity will quickly move northeast, impacting CVG/LUK first, then ILN. DAY may see additional development moving east out of Indiana in the next few hours. Maintained TEMPOs for all sites, including CMH/LCK with a later arrival time there. This thunderstorm activity decreases in coverage quickly this evening, with a few remnant showers around after 00Z. During the overnight, low level clouds are forecast to develop, as well as pocket of fog. IFR/MVFR forecast as all sites, with timing adjusted slight faster (~07 to 08Z) from previous forecast. Conditions gradually improve between 14Z and 18Z Wednesday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday night. Wind gusts between 30 to 35 mph possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 302 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-251000- Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland- Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken- Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan- Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-Montgomery- Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking- Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 302 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana, southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging winds. In addition, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
227 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
INZ080-KYZ089-090-094-241900-
Switzerland IN-Carroll KY-Owen KY-Gallatin KY-
227 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
SWITZERLAND...CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN OWEN AND WESTERN GALLATIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 226 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bedford, moving
northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
vegetation.
Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Vevay, Owenton, Kentucky Speedway, Ghent, Sanders,
Sparta, Worthville, Prestonville, Gratz, Braytown, Interstate 71 at
Mile Marker 52, Wheatley, Langstaff, New Liberty, Elmer Davis Lake,
Interstate 71 at State Route 227, Interstate 71 at Mile Marker 40,
Long Ridge, and English.
This includes I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 39 and 59.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern Indiana...and northern Kentucky.
To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3871 8523 3869 8520 3873 8520 3878 8514
3872 8486 3851 8476 3847 8495 3849 8499
3852 8498 3850 8502 3851 8503 3855 8500
3856 8501 3857 8504 3856 8506 3860 8508
3858 8521 3863 8523 3867 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 238DEG 36KT 3852 8526
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ClarkThe Louisville radar (KLVX), 104 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:44 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees and power lines were downed.
A tree was downed.
A few trees were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1205393, 1205394, 1205395.