Scattered afternoon convection became more numerous for the mid-afternoon hours in the northern Pennyrile. MLCAPE was around 1000 J/kg while shear was limited.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Scattered afternoon convection became more numerous for the mid-afternoon hours in the northern Pennyrile. MLCAPE was around 1000 J/kg while shear was limited. Many of these showers had high rain rates due to PW of 1.5-1.75 inch, particularly along a west-east boundary that slowly drifted northward. Storm progression to the ENE brought extended periods of heavier rainfall from 1200-1600CST, with Hopkins and Daviess County experiencing some flash flooding as a result.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 23, 1:10 PM CST, 50 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 210 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms possible each day through Monday. Some could be strong to severe, particularly Sunday. - Confidence in details such as the timing and intensity of storms is fairly low. - Drying out Tuesday onward with sfc high pressure. Highs will be at or just below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 This afternoon there is some ongoing scattered convection moving through southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Mid/upper level shortwave ridging is moving overhead this evening and tonight. This should help to keep us dry overnight. Expect overnight lows in the mid 60s. An upper level trof swings through the northern Plains and into MN tomorrow with a vertically stacked sfc low and cold front running to the south. Some sporadic convection may develop along our southern border in the morning hours, but otherwise we should remain dry till the afternoon. Then in the afternoon, the main convection is expected to be a line of storms that forms along the front and moves through the area. With regards to severe potential, there is weak 0- 6 km shear at around 20 kts, 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and mid level lapse rates are around 6.5-7 degC/km. Damaging winds would likely be the main threat. The front then stalls over the area and there is some discrepancy as to whether convection continues into the overnight hours. Saturday weak midlevel ridging builds in and should keep us mostly dry with the exception of a few storms possible south of the front with day time heating. On Sunday a trof over the Plains pushes into the upper Midwest. The sfc low looks to move through northern MO and southern IA. Mainly scattered convection is expected across the area at this time, some of which may be strong to severe. The severe threat looks pretty good with about 50 kts of 0-6 km shear, 2,500- 3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE, mid level lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 degC/km, and even 20-30 kts of 0-1 km shear. This means all modes of severe would be possible. CSU MLP still has us in a 60% hatched area for severe potential Sunday. This is the same as it was for May 8th, and the MLP has been performing well recently. There is some model discrepancy on Monday with an embedded shortwave aloft. The GFS swings this shortwave through Monday afternoon and generates some convection over the area. The EC however, swings it through Monday night and keeps us dry. Right now NBM has some slight chance PoPs for Monday afternoon, but this could change. Conditions shift to dry for Tuesday onward with northwest flow aloft and ridging building over the Rockies through midweek. Highs will be at or slightly below normal. Then there is major model discrepancy with the progression of the ridge to end the week. The EC keeps the ridge and moves it east over us, where as the GFS breaks down the ridge before it can reach us. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Cigs will gradually start lifting through this afternoon. We could see some clearing overnight with scattered mid and high clouds around. MVFR cigs come back around morning. Winds will continue to be light and variable and then out of the south tomorrow. Scattered convection is possible through this evening, some may affect the terminals. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY AVIATION...SHAWKEY
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 220 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-241200- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 220 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 /320 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered storms will continue to move through this afternoon and should begin to diminish this evening. A few strong storms could produce some small hail and gusty winds along with locally heavy rainfall and lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Daily chances of thunderstorms are forecast through Monday. Severe storms cannot be ruled out any day, but the best chance of severe storms is still on Sunday. Friday afternoon may also see organized severe storms. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible Sunday and Friday. Heavy rainfall and lightning will accompany all thunderstorms through the period, and flash flooding may eventually develop in areas that experience multiple strong storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Friday afternoon and Sunday.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1126 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024
ILZ080-231700-
Perry IL-
1126 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY THROUGH
NOON CDT...
At 1126 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coulterville, or 7 miles southeast of Sparta, moving northeast at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Pinckneyville, Tamaroa, and Cutler.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3821 8915 3817 8915 3803 8959 3804 8960
3821 8959 3822 8958
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 238DEG 25KT 3810 8958
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CNThe Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 68 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:59 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding at a business with water almost up to the building. A radar estimated 1.5-3 inches of rainfall fell in Madisonville from 1200CST-1500CST.
Multiple roads flooded in St Joseph and surrounding areas of Southwestern Daviess County including locations which have not flooded for a long time. Areas in this part of Daviess County received 1-2 inches of rain in 2 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1184229, 1184095.