As a shortwave trough moved into Kansas, thunderstorms developed along the dryline over western Kansas. These were training cells in two clusters.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.
As a shortwave trough moved into Kansas, thunderstorms developed along the dryline over western Kansas. These were training cells in two clusters. The northern storms dropped large hail (2.25 IN) and large quantities of rain in Trego county. The southern storm generated strong winds (63 MPH) in Gray county and thunderstorm wind damage in Finney county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 16, 5:24 PM CST, 2 hours 1 minute earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 624 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms this evening with the highest confidence across west central Kansas - A better chance (~40 to 60%) of storms tomorrow, with the highest confidence west of Dodge City - Next shot at storms on Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A weak dryline has formed along the Highway 83 corridor this afternoon. Dewpoints east of this boundary are in the 60s. This dryline is associated with lower surface pressure across eastern Colorado in the form of a sfc trof. Satellite water vapor channel shows a large UL low located across central California. The combination of a weak wave moving upstream of the main low and boundary layer moisture will lead to 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE developing across western Kansas this afternoon and evening. As a result of the weak wave and low level instability, still expect isolated storms to develop this afternoon and evening. Have the highest of confidence of storms in closer proximity near the sfc trof across west central Kansas. There might be enough convergence along the dryline farther south to spark off an isolated storm as well. Unfortunately, the rest of the FA is likely to remain storm free through this evening. The large upper level low will continue to move east Tuesday and should be near the Idaho/Utah region during the day. Low level moisture upstream of this low will continue across the FA with dewpoints remaining in the 50s and 60s. With the approaching upper level low, enough CAPE, and convergence along the dryline/sfc trof, storms looks likely to develop along and west of Highway 83 Tuesday afternoon and evening. Several CAMs show this line of convective evolution. From a probabilistic messaging source, the grand ensemble has increasing probabilities (40 to 80%) of QPF > 0.10" during this time across western Kansas, which matches well with deterministic sources. As such, will keep the highest pops along and west of Dodge City Tuesday. It is uncertain though how far east this activity will make it across the eastern FA Tuesday evening. This matches well with decreasing probabilities of higher QPF from the grand ensemble farther east. With the boundary layer forecast to be mixed, there might be a strong/severe wind threat with the storms. It looks like we will be in between weather systems Wednesday and Thursday. This deterministic flow pattern matches well with GEFS and EPS QPF, which shows very little during these two days. Attention then turns to the Friday time frame. Both GEFS and EPS shows the potential for more storms during this data. This matches up with the probabilistic messaging source from the grand ensemble, which has increasing probabilities of QPF > 0.10" during this period. Beyond Friday, confidence drops off quickly on how the synoptic pattern will evolve over the weekend. EPS ensembles are giving a very unclear signal on storm potential. GEFS ensembles as pretty unclear as well. As a result of the increasing uncertainty, will continue with the blended pops over the weekend for now. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1111 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR is expected through TAF pd. -TSRA/CB will be possible this evening for KHYS and have included this in the TAF. There is a slight chance of -TSRA at KDDC as well, however, confidence is low enough to not include in the TAF for now. Will continue to monitor an adjust as necessary. Otherwise, the rest of the terminals should see little aviation impacts through the morning. SE/S winds 15-20 kt will decrease slightly 12-15 kt this evening. Winds will increase once again 15-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt tomorrow with continued lee troughing. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Numerous showers are across parts of the region – particularly west of Garden City and south of the Liberal terminal. These showers are associates with a surface trough extending from northeast NM into sw NE. Much of the activity will cease with the loss of daytime heating. Lightning is very isolated. Expect VFR ceilings but locally brief moderate rain is the more isolated thunderstorms. Gusty south winds should remain ongoing though the evening, before gusts decouple according to local mos guidance by the overnight hours. && DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Russell
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Dodge City KS 516 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171030- Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman- Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa- Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber- 516 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 /416 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas, south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop this afternoon across far southwest and far west central Kansas, generally west of Highway 83 as relative humidity falls to 20 to 25 percent and south-southeast winds increase to 20 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to move east across western Kansas Tuesday Night. At this time, the severe weather risk is very low across southwest and much of west central Kansas. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday into Saturday as another strong storm system approaches western Kansas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today and tonight.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
717 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
KSZ030-170115-
Trego KS-
717 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TREGO COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM
CDT...
At 717 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles south of Morland to
near Pendennis. Movement was east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Collyer around 720 PM CDT.
Voda around 730 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Wakeeney and
Trego Center.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3870 9960 3871 10015 3913 10015 3913 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 258DEG 19KT 3921 10014 3870 10025
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
RUSSELLThe Dodge City radar (KDDC), 73 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:22 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Pictures on social media of minor roof damage and mention of damage to signs and poles. Time estimated via radar. Radar interrogation showed microburst potential.
Social media reports included multiple pictures of 2-2.25 inch hail stones.
From 8 miles south of Collyer, social media reports of multiple roads flooded including 4 feet of water over the Trego County road O near the Trego/Gove County line road.
A public weather station measured a 63 mph wind gust at 10:17 PM from a thunderstorm that passed through.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1212048, 1212032, 1212029, 1212049.