Persistent and efficient rainfall across parts of east-central Kansas resulted in 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals and isolated flooding in Anderson County. Occurred late evening on the 30th into the 31st.
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The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
Persistent and efficient rainfall across parts of east-central Kansas resulted in 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals and isolated flooding in Anderson County. Occurred late evening on the 30th into the 31st.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 30, 8:24 PM CST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 924 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding and flash flooding tonight. - Off and on rain chances remain in the forecast through Tuesday mostly with nocturnal convection working east into the area. - A warm up may occur into the end of next work week into next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 924 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Locally heavy rainfall from thunderstorms overnight is the main concern across northeast and east central Kansas. Rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches per hour are likely. Theta-e axis extends north to south across eastern Kansas. A MCV continues to slowly move across eastern Kansas with locally heavy rainfall noted to the north and east of the circulation. Some areas of Brown County have already exceeded 3 inches of rain with localized flooding as well. The threat for heavy rainfall will gradually diminish later tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A deep positively tilted trough is in place through the New England region into the mid-Atlantic states. A sharp ridge is in place over the western Great Lakes into the Hudson Bay region with a neutral to slightly negatively tilted trough over central Canada into the northern Rockies. The Westerlies remain along a northerly track off into the northern Pacific. Subtropical energy is well south of the region. The Central Plains is under the influence of weak quasi- zonal flow in between the Westerlies and subtropical influences. Southerly to southeasterly flow is set up across the area near the surface on the western flank of a broad surface ridge expanding from the Upper MS Valley into the Tennessee Valley region. A weak MCV paired with a weak and very subtle shortwave aloft continues to work across the forecast area at this hour. A couple more fairly disorganized convective systems remain south of the area with another north into eastern Nebraska which is also fairly disorganized a this hour but closer to the southeastern flank of better forcing aloft associated with the base of the western trough poised to move into the northern Plains. This afternoon, expect a the window for a marginally severe storm to last through the afternoon into early this evening as weak upper level energy transitions across the area. A few instances of lightning have been more common at least over the past hour or so. Deeper moisture is to the south of the area with upper 60 dewpoints into OK/TX region. Shear profiles are generally weak and disorganized across the area. With a few breaks in the clouds today, could still see enough instability become realized for a couple of updrafts to go severe with mostly a hail threat into early this evening. Overall PWATs are lower than one would likely need to see rainfall rates intense enough to pose a flooding concern. Additionally, pulse type storms are what is expected in this type of environment. With flash flood guidance generally close to 2-3 inches from 1-3hrs across the area, not expecting any widespread concerns overall even through brief heavy downpours could result. Most likely time frames for mostly nocturnal type storms to move into the area from the west comes into Saturday night and Sunday morning. However, it appears that any line or complex of storms may be moving into a generally less favorable environment both shear and instability wise. Looking for any convection to lose momentum into north central and parts of northeastern KS. Right now a couple more time frames appear to focus on Monday morning and again into Tuesday night when storms may stand a better chance at moving into the area with northerly flow energy digging down into the area slightly. A deeper and better organized system is forecast to enter the northern Plains for the late Tuesday period. This may provide the best opportunity to see associated baroclinicity along a developing cold front that could move into the area and provide chances for more active weather across the area. Late into the week, a broader ridge is forecast to set up over the west. However, there is larger spread amongst cluster analysis and deterministic solutions at this time. Should such a ridge become established it could provide an opportunity for typically June heat to set up across the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Scattered SHRA will affect the terminals through 03Z with isold tsra also possible. Coverage wanes through the night and hard to pick any particular time period so stayed with vcsh for now. Cigs look to vary from vfr to mvfr through the period. Winds southeast around 10kts becoming east 10kts or less after 03Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && UPDATE...53 DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...53
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 916 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-010230- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 916 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Locally heavy rainfall from thunderstorms across northeast and east central Kansas may lead to flash flooding as well as rises on creeks and streams tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER MESSAGE Weather spotters are encouraged to relay reports of hail, damaging wind, tornadoes and flooding. && More detailed information can be found at: www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1035 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1034 PM Rain 3 SSE Harris 38.27N 95.42W
05/30/2024 M2.25 Inch Anderson KS Trained Spotter
Total since around 5 PM. Rain was ongoing at
the time of the report.
&&
STThe Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 104 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Roads remained closed south of Garnett as of 1:48 AM cdt. Campground near cedar creek reservoir was closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1180316.