Winter Weather in Kansas, March 25, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
222 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong weather system will bring strong winds, fire weather,
  and severe thunderstorms to our area today.

- Light snow will filter into our area behind a strong cold
  front early Monday, lasting through much of the day.

- Hard freezes Tuesday and Wednesday morning with lows in the
  teens to low 20s.

&&

.Mesoscale Discussion...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Satellite imagery continues to show high base storms forming along
and behind a dryline, which currently is located across far
southwest Kansas.  Clearing and heating is occurring ahead of this
dryline which will help destabilize the atmosphere as we head into
the late afternoon hours.  Cape values of around 1000 Kg/J are
expected in this area.  However, limited moisture will only allow
surface dewpoints to rise into the 40s to lower 50s. As the dry line
continues to slide east through the area, a northwest to southeast
line of storms are forecasted to form. Strong shear (+30 knot 0-6
km) and deep lapse rates will allow a few of these storms to become
strong to severe this afternoon into this evening. An isolated
tornado can not be ruled out at this time. These storms then move
out of the area this evening and into Wichita's CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
indicates a large, deep, longwave trough is in place over the
western CONUS, with an embedded shortwave trough rounding its
base over NM. Ahead of this wave, a sub-990-mb surface trough
has taken shape over eastern CO, with strong cyclonic flow
around it bringing 25-30 mph southerly winds with gusts of
35-40 mph to southwest KS. As the shortwave impulse ejects
northeastward towards the central plains, the surface low will
deepen further to near 980-mb, fostering increasing winds into
the 30-35 mph range with gusts of 45-50. Surface observations
show a dryline is extending south from the surface low near the
KS/CO border, which will mix east during the day today. Behind
this feature, plummeting dewpoints along with strong southwest
winds will support critical fire weather conditions, and a Red
Flag Warning remains in effect for all of far southwest KS until
01Z Monday. Ahead of the dryline, strong moisture advection via
southerly winds will draw low/mid 50s dewpoints poleward,
likely maintaining mostly cloudy skies over the warm sector,
resulting in a range of afternoon highs from the low 70s west to
low 60s east.

Focus now shifts to the potential for severe convection across
our area this afternoon and evening. Increasing forcing for
ascent ahead of the ejecting shortwave will aid in triggering
thunderstorms along the dryline around 20-21Z, which the latest
CAMs suggest will be near the US-83 corridor. Thermodynamic
profiles will be less than ideal given the aforementioned cloud
cover and meager moisture across the warm sector, but very cold
mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates will support
MLCAPE on the order of 750-1250 J/Kg. On the other hand, wind
profiles will be more than sufficient for severe convection, as
35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will exist east of the dryline.
Current thinking is supercells and line segments will be the
primary storm mode, posing hazards of large hail up to 2" in
diameter, and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph as storms race to
the northeast. A weak, isolated tornado cannot be ruled out,
but poor theta-e will be very difficult to overcome.
Sunday evening, thunderstorms will exit our area to the
northeast by around midnight.

Tonight, the upper level shortwave trough and attendant surface
cyclone will begin to pull away to the northeast, dragging a
cold front in its wake that will pass through the central
plains. Winds will flip to northerly behind the front, and
strong cold advection will transport much colder air into
southwest KS. Additionally, light wrap-around precipitation
will pour into our area early Monday, and swing across our area
through much of the day affecting roughly the northwest three
quarters of the DDC FA. Nearly all of this precipitation will
fall as snow, but accumulations are expected to be minimal as
HREF probability of snowfall exceeding 2" is less than 50% for
all areas except for a few small pockets over the west/northwest
zones. That said, with light snow and strong northerly winds,
blowing snow will be a factor, and winter weather headlines may
be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Light snow may be ongoing at the beginning of the long term
period across the northeast zones, but this should clear out
fairly quickly leaving southwest KS precipitation free by or
shortly after midnight Tuesday morning. Medium range ensembles
suggest the upper level trough axis will cross the High Plains
overnight, and DNVA will begin to erode the cloud cover from
west to east across southwest KS. This along with weakening
northwest winds as the surface low drifts further away and fresh
snowpack will optimize radiational cooling, and a hard freeze
is expected Tuesday morning as temperatures nosedive into the
mid teens northwest to low 20s southeast.

Daytime Tuesday through the end of the period, ensembles
indicate weak upper level ridging will build across the western
CONUS through the end of the long term period, resulting in
generally quiet weather for southwest KS other than one more
hard freeze Wednesday morning. Expect afternoon highs to
increase from the 40s on Tuesday into the low 70s Friday, and
the mid/upper 70s by the weekend with no appreciable opportunity
for widespread precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Visible satellite imagery reveals the morning stratus that
brought MVFR cigs to all terminals this morning has eroded over
GCK and LBL, leading to VFR returning. Over the next couple
hours, short range guidance indicates DDC and HYS will join the
other terminals in VFR as solar insolation helps raise cloud
bases. Regarding winds, strong southerly winds will persist
through the afternoon and into the overnight period, sustained
in the 20-30 kt range with gusts of 40+ kts. Later this
afternoon, thunderstorm development is expected along a dryline
located near the US-83 corridor. Confidence in terminal impact
is reasonably high, bringing MVFR/IFR cigs and vis, but exact
timing is not, limiting TAF mention to just VCTS. Once the
convection clears southwest KS, a strong cold front will begin
to move through southwest KS, passing through all terminals
early Monday morning. Behind this front, and abrupt wind shift
to the north-northwest along with light snow will be present.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ046-065-
066-079-081.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ061-062-074>076-084>087.

&&

UPDATE...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Springer