Flooding and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 18 to 20, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
144 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty south winds expected through this evening.

- Storms are expected to develop along a cold front mainly after
  4 pm this afternoon and will become more widespread this
  evening as they track slowly southeastward. Large hail,
  damaging winds and heavy rain will be the main threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A mid/upper trough remains situated over the Northern Rockies and
Northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front was nosing into
northwest Kansas. This front appeared slightly faster or further
south and east when compared to some of the 12Z guidance. We are
still anticipating scattered storms developing within the frontal
zone, especially after 21Z or 4 PM. This activity is expected to
become more numerous after 00Z when the LLJ cranks up again. We
continue to see plenty of buoyancy with 2000-3000 j/kg progged
within a marginally sheared airmass. Steep lapse rates and high
PWATs/deep warm layer clouds depths continue to support the
ongoing forecast this evening with some damaging winds, large
hail (especially with the initial updrafts) and locally heavy
rainfall. Storms may train along the frontal zone leading to
some excessive water as a persistent LLJ noses into parts of
south central/central Kansas keeping a buoyant airmass in place
supporting training of cells into the frontal zone with
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall possible. Storms may begin to
struggle with southeastward extent as they encounter more cinh
across southern Kansas and confidence in where the axis heaviest
precipitation falls remains fairly low.

Showers and storms may linger into the morning hours Wednesday with
clouds and rain cooled air over central KS keeping temperatures much
cooler compared to recent days. Some locations may struggle to reach
the mid 70s.

Thu-Sat...The mid/upper ridge over the Mid-Atlantic area is progged
to retrograde exerting a greater impact on the Central Plains area.
This will lead to mostly dry weather conditions and rising
temperatures through the period. Highs on Sat are expected to climb
into the mid and upper 90s for many locations.

A shortwave trough racing eastward across the Northern Plains on
Saturday will allow another frontal boundary to move across Kansas.
This front may provide a focus for deep moist convection late in the
period. For Sunday through Tuesday, mid/upper ridging will bring
rising heights and increasing thickness supporting rising
temperatures across the area. A hot stretch is anticipated with
highs around or above the century mark through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The primary aviation concern today remains to be strong southerly
winds gusting to 30-40kts at all sites through the remainder of the
afternoon.

A frontal system currently making its way through northwest Kansas
is expected to touch off showers and storms in the late afternoon
and early evening hours. Right now, highest confidence is that these
will impact terminals in central Kansas. Not as confident in these
reaching KICT, so PROB30 is introduced to reflect this uncertainty.
Additionally, cigs lowered to near-IFR levels are expected to follow
in the wake of these storms beginning in the early morning hours on
Wednesday in central and south central Kansas. Stay tuned to later
forecasts for greater confidence in the timing and coverage of these
impacts.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067>069-082-
083-091>093.

&&

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
545 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-191845-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
545 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

Storms developing along a cold front in central Kansas will
gradually build eastward this evening and tonight. The stronger
storms will be capable of producing quarter sized hail, 65 mph winds
and heavy rain. Training of storms along the slow moving frontal
zone may lead to localized flash flooding. Locations generally west
of a line from Salina to Hutchinson to Kingman will have the best
chance to see strong or severe storms this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Storms are expected to linger across the area on Wednesday,
especially during the morning hours. A few strong storms will be
possible along with additional heavy rainfall.

Storms will also be possible Saturday evening through Sunday morning
as a weak cold front moves through. Strong storms appear possible
with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict