Drought conditions continued to be in the D2 Severe Drought category for Graham County, with a small area of D3 Extreme Drought in eastern Graham County. The D2 status extended into small parts of Sheridan, Decatur, and Norton counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
Drought conditions continued to be in the D2 Severe Drought category for Graham County, with a small area of D3 Extreme Drought in eastern Graham County. The D2 status extended into small parts of Sheridan, Decatur, and Norton counties. Precipitation for the month ranged from an inch to an inch and a half.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 11:05 PM CST, 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1005 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 210 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 At the start of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis shows an upper air ridge currently over the CWA this afternoon. Current satellite imagery and surface observations report dry conditions across the region with some low clouds moving into the northeastern portions of the CWA and high clouds residing over the southwestern half of the CWA. Models show the CWA staying underneath the upper air ridge going through the rest of Sunday. At the surface, models have a surface high moving into central NE by the evening and then progressing southward into central KS overnight. With this feature passing the CWA at the surface, winds across the region look to be mostly light through the rest of the day. Models are also showing potential for some patchy fog to develop this evening in areas along and north of I-70 that may last into tomorrow morning. Better chances look to be east of the CO border though not enough confidence to put out a Dense Fog Advisory due to uncertainty seen between models in fog location and intensity. Will monitor conditions to see if this thinking changes. Overnight low temperatures tonight look to range between the middle and upper teens. For New Year's Day, the models show the axis of the upper air ridge making its way east of the CWA allowing for a generally westerly flow over the CWA by the late afternoon hours. Models also forecast an upper air trough moving into the southwestern CONUS behind the ridge during the day. At the surface, low pressure looks develop in CO early in the day allowing for a southerly surface flow across the CWA. Warmer temperatures expect to be ushered into the CWA with daytime highs in lower to upper 40s range. The fog also is expected to lift by the mid-morning hours. The CWA looks to see low chances for precipitation on Monday as well. Low temperatures on Monday night are forecast to be in upper teens to lower 20s range. On Tuesday, forecast guidance shows the axis of the aforementioned trough passing over the CWA in the afternoon as the base of trough travels along the southern U.S. border. An upper air ridge trails the trough with the front portion reaching over the CWA overnight and causing the CWA's upper air flow to turn north-northeasterly. At the surface, models show a possible weak cold front pushing through the CWA early in the day causing northerly surface winds behind it. Dry conditions are also expected to continue for another day within the region. Daytime highs for Tuesday look to be in the lower to middle 40s followed by overnight lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1240 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 Ridging looks to be present to start the extended period. A surface high will also be in place helping to keep skies mainly clear. The clear skies will be short lived as a progressive trough moves towards the central Plains through the day Thursday and into Friday. Deterministic guidance is still struggling with the track of the system. Ensemble clustering though is however picking up on qpf mainly south of Interstate 70 which is similar to what the latest runs of the EPS and GEFS suggest so will continue following ensembles for this forecast. Confidence is continuing to increase in precipitation across the area especially for Friday mainly in the form of light snow, although some rain may be able to mix in as well. NBM pops have increased to around 40% for the south and eastern portions of the area which is the area that the ensemble clustering was picking up on so the trend of better precipitation chances does seem reasonable. Overall light snow accumulation currently does look like the most likely solution at this time based on the current track which is across the OK Panhandle, however a little bit more north, then multiple inches of snow may be possible.. so will need to continue watching trends. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a wet snow does seem likely with the system. So despite winds being around 15-20 mph, the overall wetness of the snow should help limit blowing snow concerns. As mentioned above, the system will be fairly quick moving. Guidance continues to be in relatively good agreement in another, potentially stronger system developing towards the latter portion of next weekend into the early week. This system will also have a better tie to colder Canadian air as well, bringing in perhaps some of the coldest air of the season thus far. Being a week out from this system, it's way to early to start getting into specifics but there is potential that it may be impactful for portions of the Plains. As for temperatures, near normal temperatures are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the low to mid 40s. A decline in temperatures then begins Friday as highs are forecast in the 30s, but may be even colder if more precipitation can occur with the further north track of the system. Some brief moderation Saturday before the potential for much colder air starts to move into the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1003 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 At GLD, VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the 06Z TAF period despite some slight reductions to visibility possible in mist through ~10Z. Winds will be out of the south-southwest at around 5-10 knots. At MCK, VFR conditions to begin with are expected to deteriorate to IFR/LIFR with low stratus and reductions to visibility in mist by ~08Z. Improvement in conditions towards VFR anticipated by ~16Z. Light south-southwesterly winds continue through the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...076 LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...CC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 740 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-020245- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas- Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock- Red Willow- 740 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 /840 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... Fog, possibly dense, is expected to develop across portions of the Tri-State Area tonight, generally for locations near and east of the Colorado/Kansas border. Possible quarter mile or less visibility in fog in conjunction with melted snow refreezing on roadways may result in hazardous driving conditions within the region. Motorists and those with New Year's Eve plans are advised to use caution when traveling tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Fog continues through the morning hours Monday for locations along and east of Highway 25, anticipated to dissipate between approximately 9 to 11 AM CST. There is the potential for light accumulating snow on Friday within the Tri-State Area. Please watch for forecast updates as they become available. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
914 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0905 PM Fog 4 S Burlington 39.24N 102.28W
12/31/2023 M0.25 mi Kit Carson CO ASOS
KITR reporting dense fog with visibility of
1/4 mile.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Precipitation for the month ranged from one to one and a half inches. This was half an inch to one inch above normal. The normal precipitation for the month is a quarter to one inch.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, January 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1158227.