Long-standing abnormally dry conditions from April 2023 through January 2024 resulted in no changes to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought for northeast Iowa in January. From initial severe drought (D2) issuance in June 2023 to the onset of January 2024, 10 to 20 of total rainfall was 8 to 14 below normal.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Long-standing abnormally dry conditions from April 2023 through January 2024 resulted in no changes to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought for northeast Iowa in January. From initial severe drought (D2) issuance in June 2023 to the onset of January 2024, 10 to 20 of total rainfall was 8 to 14 below normal. Multiple storms grazed northeast Iowa counties and resulted in highly variable monthly precipitation totals. Highest monthly snowfall totals near 40 with a liquid equivalent of 4 fell along the Mississippi River and were 2 above normal. Lowest monthly snowfall totals of 5 to 10 and total liquid equivalent of 0.5 to 1.5 were near to below normal in counties west of the Mississippi River. Besides one week of well below normal temperatures, overall monthly temperatures were well above normal, including multiple days of 10 degrees or more above normal. These warm conditions quickly melted the snowpack and perpetuated ongoing soil moisture concerns.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 10:50 PM CST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1050 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures for the start of the New Year, but below average confidence in the cloud forecast which would affect temperatures. - Slight chance (15-20%) for light snow for the northern portions of our region Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Overview: Water vapor satellite imagery/heights showed the closed low over. southern Lake Michigan. A ridge aloft was noted across the Rockies with a closed low over the state of Washington and full latitude troughing off the West Coast. The latest metars and WSR-88D radar show a few lingering flurries locally, some UP over central MN and some snow showers pushing across parts of Lake Superior. Overnight and early this morning, many locations experienced bouts of light freezing drizzle/mist. Even small amounts on untreated surfaces created a light glaze and slippery conditions. Snowfall amounts were light as expected and ranged from a trace to 1.1" Here at the NWS La Crosse, we had 0.2" of snow with a trace of icing. RST had a trace of snow and light icing. LSE had 0.2" with a trace of ice. 4WNW of Ettrick reported 1.1" of snow, Black River Falls had 1", 4NNW of La Crescent 0.7" and Onalaska had 0.3". See our latest PNS for more reports. The most recent visible satellite imagery showed mostly cloudy skies across the region with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Above normal temperatures to start the New Year: Through Monday, the storm system that brought the freezing drizzle and light snow to the area will exit the region with mid- tropospheric ridging building in for Monday. The short term models are keen on clearing the low clouds out, however the western edge of the stratus is not budging. Some breaks are occurring across parts of central Wisconsin. The RAP low level moisture hangs around through early Monday afternoon compared to clearing out this evening. Thus went with the more pessimistic guidance of holding on to clouds longer, although some breaks could develop across parts of the forecast area overnight. We currently have lows in the mid teens to lower 20s, however if the clouds break up more, they could be colder. For Monday, have highs from 28 to 33 and those readings are a few degrees above the normal highs of 24 (RST) and 29 (LSE). Temperatures remain near to above average this week with slight chances for snow Wednesday: Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of the week with an upper-level ridge sliding into our region Late Monday. As a result, can expect highs mostly in the lower to middle 30s for Tuesday with the ridge axis firmly over our region and building surface high pressure to the south. The next feature that warrants watching is a small shortwave trough ejecting out of the Canadian Plains late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Currently, the latest NBM continues to keep precipitation chances almost zero due to its limited QPF signal. However, there is a couple subtle indications of precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday that will need some monitoring. The 31.12z NAM soundings shows some low-level saturation with a stratus deck that pushes into the region ahead of the wave. With the lack of ice nucleation present in this sounding, there would be some question of freezing drizzle/mist if there is enough lift. With questions remaining as to how large the saturated layer would be and with the NAM being the only solution showing this, opted to keep out any mention of precipitation Tuesday morning. Additionally, with the 31.12z deterministic NAM and GFS forecast soundings showing some potential for saturation in the dendritic growth zone with some weak lift Wednesday morning, decided to nudge precipitation chances to 15- 20% north of I-90 with snow being the main ptype. After the passage of this shortwave, some cold advection will work its way in allowing highs to fall down to near average but will warm slightly once again as guidance shows another ridge building in late Thursday into Friday. Looking to the Weekend and beyond: Long range guidance does show some interesting trends going into the first weekend of 2024 and beyond. However, it is important to note that predictability at this stage in the forecast remains low. Deterministic guidance shows a fairly robust upper-level trough digging down into the southern rockies Saturday morning that ejects into the southern Plains. Intensity of this trough as it will be key in determining its position as it moves eastbound with the current consensus mostly keeping this system south of our region. Consequently, probabilistic guidance, namely the 31.12z GEFS and EC ensemble, does not have high confidence in measurable precipitation with only medium probabilities (30-50% chance). Guidance then depicts a secondary system early the subsequent week that ejects into the Great Plains as well. There seems to be some indication that there could be a more northward trajectory with this system as it moves eastbound. As a result, probabilistics in the 31.00z grand ensemble (EC ens/GEFS/Canadian ens) already show very high confidence (70-90% chance) of seeing measurable precipitation during this period. However, due to this being pretty far into the extended forecast predictability remains very low. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Widespread MVFR ceilings persist through much of the period, with an increasing probability (50 to 70%) of IFR ceilings west of the Mississippi River after 06Z tonight. The cloud deck across the region may begin to scatter out Monday afternoon and evening, but timing specifics are tough to pin down at this time. Current northwest winds of 5-10 kts back to the west Monday morning and the southwest Monday afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && DISCUSSION...Naylor/Zapotocny AVIATION...Skow
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1257 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061-012300- Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette- Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston- Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau- Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant- 1257 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... No action needed. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... No webinar is scheduled. nofwd
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought persisted across Allamakee County through January. While 1.5 to 3 of monthly total liquid precipitation was up to 2 above normal, the long-standing abnormally dry conditions, near 10 below normal since June 1st, 2023, resulted in severe (D2) drought persisting.
Extreme (D3) drought persisted across Chickasaw County through January. While 1 to 1.5 of monthly total liquid precipitation was slightly above normal, the long-standing abnormally dry conditions, 8 to 12 below normal since June 1st, 2023, resulted in extreme (D3) drought persisting.
Severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought persisted across Clayton County through January. While 2 to 3 of liquid precipitation fell, the long-standing abnormally dry conditions persisted. The area remained 8-10 below normal since June 1st, 2023.
Extreme (D3) drought persisted across Fayette County through January. While near 2 of monthly total liquid precipitation was up to 1 above normal, the long-standing abnormally dry conditions persisted. The area remained 8-12 below normal since June 1st, 2023.
Extreme (D3) drought persisted across Floyd County through January. While up to 1.5 of monthly total liquid precipitation was near normal, the long-standing abnormally dry conditions persisted. The area remained 8-14 below normal since June 1st, 2023.
Extreme (D3) drought persisted across Howard County through January. While up to 1.5 of monthly total liquid precipitation was near normal, the long-standing abnormally dry conditions persisted. The area was still 10-12 below normal since June 1st, 2023.
Extreme (D3) drought persisted across Mitchell County through January as slightly below normal monthly total liquid precipitation near 0.5 was slightly below normal.
Severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought persisted across Winneshiek County through January. While 1 to 2 of monthly total liquid precipitation was up to 1 above normal, the long-standing abnormally dry conditions continued, remaining 8 to 12 below normal since June 1st, 2023.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, January 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1157285, 1157286, 1157287, 1157288, 1157289, 1157290, 1157291, 1157292.