Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours as an upper level disturbance moved through the Ohio Valley.
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The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours as an upper level disturbance moved through the Ohio Valley.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 22, 9:09 AM EST, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1009 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance moving through the Ohio Valley will bring occasional chances for showers and a few thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday. Warm conditions are expected again today before more seasonable temperatures overspread the region for the start of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mostly clear skies this morning will soon be replaced by expansive cloud cover moving in from the W as a midlevel S/W approaches this afternoon into this evening. The drier air currently entrenched across the region will be shunted to the E into the afternoon, with a fairly pronounced dewpoint gradient expected to go along with it as some richer LL moisture advects in from the W through the daytime. But it will take some effort to truly moisten the profile, with an expectation that an approaching band of SHRA, with embedded TS, will erode with eastward extent. The SHRA may initially be falling from a deck at about 8-10kft, with quite a bit of dry air to overcome in the LL. This is shown well even on the typically more moisture- robust guidance, with a rather deep layer of dry air in the bottom 8-10kft to overcome, especially during the onset. So while there will most certainly be some virga and perhaps some sprinkles, the prospect of appreciable measurable rainfall drops off rather abruptly near/E of I-75 through at least midday. As we progress into early evening, enough saturation should occur that coverage of SHRA, with even some TS, should gradually increase toward sunset and beyond. But even then, rainfall amounts should be rather light (<0.1") in most spots E of I-75. The best chance for more appreciable rainfall will likely be after sunset W of I-75 as broken clusters of SHRA/TSRA attempt to move W before eroding again with eastward extent. Highs should again reach into the lower 90s in central/south- central OH and NE KY as the clouds and pcpn will be much more delayed in these areas. Further to the W, expect temps to top out in the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... West to southwest flow will continue aloft tonight into Tuesday with additional areas of mid level energy advecting across our area. This will help drag a frontal boundary slowly east into the region tonight and as we perhaps moisten up a bit more, we should see a somewhat better chance for showers and few thunderstorms to continue across the area tonight. Again though, given the overall dry pattern, will continue to limit pops to chance category for tonight. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. It looks like the frontal boundary may stall out across our area through the day on Monday. With additional waves of mid level energy moving through the Ohio Valley, a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through the day. The best chance for pcpn will be along and southeast of the boundary, generally across our southern forecast area. Temperatures will be more seasonable with highs on Monday ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the lower 80s in the southeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Shortwave energy continues to dig into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to start the extended period Monday night and Tuesday. With an associated cold front just to our west, southwesterly flow will provide deep moisture, allowing for a good chance of widespread showers and storms. The latest guidance calls for a wave of surface low pressure to lift toward the Ohio Valley late Monday night, with showers increasing from southwest to northeast by morning. The cold front will then make it way through the area later on Tuesday. Guidance varies a bit, but QPF amounts appear to average half inch to an inch during this time. The low moves away on Wednesday... at which time uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly as a tropical system may be moving into the southeast United States. In general, we appear to be headed into more of a blocky pattern once again, with the northern stream retreating well north into Canada. This would make rainfall in our area depend upon the development and movement of the tropical system late in the week. For now, have a low chance of PoPs to allow for the uncertainty during this time. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fairly widespread river valley fog will slowly improve through mid morning. This will likely result in some IFR to locally VLIFR conditions at KLUK for the first hour or so of the TAF period. Otherwise, expect high and mid level clouds to increase through the day ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. This will eventually lead to a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight. However, given the dry airmass in place across the region, there is some uncertainty as to how widespread these will actually be. Will therefore just include a VCSH in the TAFs heading into this evening. Cigs will drop into MVFR category later tonight into Monday morning. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...KC/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 341 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-231000- Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland- Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken- Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan- Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-Preble-Montgomery- Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking- Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 341 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana, southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
102 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
INZ050-OHZ042-221730-
Wayne IN-Darke OH-
102 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WAYNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN DARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...
At 102 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hagerstown,
moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning
is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Centerville, Hagerstown, Fountain City, Franklin, Greens Fork,
Bethel, Hollansburg, Palestine, Economy, Whitewater, Jacksonburg,
Interstate 70 at Exit 145, and Williamsburg.
This includes I-70 in Indiana between mile markers 138 and 147.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.
Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.
To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 4001 8520 4000 8481 4012 8481 4000 8467
3980 8509 3992 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 237DEG 39KT 3989 8507
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
NovakThe Cincinnati radar (KILN), 113 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:17 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A few trees and wires were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1204302.