Upper-level ridging peaked over the forecast area on the 21st. Scattered storms developed in the northeastern part of the Quad State closer to the warm front near a residual boundary.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Upper-level ridging peaked over the forecast area on the 21st. Scattered storms developed in the northeastern part of the Quad State closer to the warm front near a residual boundary. CAPE values near 2000 J/kg and DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg allowed for downdraft development. Effective bulk shear of 25 kts was sufficient for storms, but somewhat limited. Tree damage was observed in White County just west of the bridge over the Wabash River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 21, 12:48 PM CST, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 148 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will slowly push through the region Sunday into Monday, bringing periods of showers and storms. The risk for severe storms is marginal Monday, with gusty winds and hail the main hazards of concern during peak heating. Rainfall totals should broadly range from one half to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, especially along the I-64 corridor. - Cooler and less humid conditions arrive behind the cold front for the rest of the week with highs only ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Rain chances linger into Tuesday, with additional low rain chances possible towards the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 An increasingly active and unsettled weather pattern will evolve across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys through the first half of the new week. An upper level ridge will be suppressed into the southern U.S. as ripples of shortwave energy stream through the southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, a cold front will slowly approach and eventually pass through the region by Tuesday. The forcing accompanying each wave of energy will act upon the humid and unstable air mass across the region to yield periods of showers and thunderstorms through Monday night and Tuesday. In the near term, convective activity is likely to be more hit or miss through Sunday until better forcing arrives on Monday. Better rain chances appear to be focused across the northern half of the forecast area on Sunday before expanding south to encompass the entire area by Monday. Even so, isolated to widely scattered activity cannot be ruled out practically anywhere through the period. SPC has much of the area outlooked in a marginal risk for severe weather on Monday, when locally strong storms may be capable of producing strong wind gusts and/or hail. However, much of that is contingent on how much the atmosphere is able to destabilize amidst the presence of what appears likely to be an abundance of cloud cover. Rainfall totals through Monday night and Tuesday are forecast to range from less than an inch across southern portions of western Kentucky up to 2 inches or more across northern portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana. That said, there will likely be a wide range in outcomes given the scattered nature of the activity, with some locations receiving very little rain while other locations receive potentially in excess of 3 inches with repeat heavy downpours. Beyond Tuesday, a trend towards mainly dry weather and cooler weather is anticipated in the wake of the cold frontal passage. That said, model agreement isn't the best during the middle to latter half of the week, which lends to lower than average forecast confidence. A number of model solutions suggest a cut-off low may develop over the south central U.S., and this could potentially interact with a tropical system forecast to impact the Gulf Coast later in the week. Given the rather complicated low confidence forecast, substantial changes are possible as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through tonight and Sunday. The potential for isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms is greatest this afternoon near KCGI/KPAH, and Sunday morning from KMVN to KEVV. However, much of the overnight period should be dry. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out late tonight, in particular at KCGI. Winds will be light from the south/southwest. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...RJP AVIATION...RJP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-221000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 /325 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight. A strong gusty storm or two cannot be ruled out, but the main concerns are heavy downpours and lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday A slow-moving cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region Sunday and Monday. There is a marginal risk of severe storms on Monday, when isolated damaging winds and hail will be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation cannot be ruled out on Monday.
The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 46 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:28 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree debris brought down by thunderstorm downdraft winds was observed on IL-141 west of the Wabash River bridge.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1215325.