Wildfire in Idaho, July 11 to 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
250 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Friday.
Temperatures continue to warm as high pressure amplifies over the
western U.S. Daytime temperatures across Southeast Idaho will
continue to run 10 to 15 degrees above climatological norms with
more high temperature records at stake over the next several days.
Our low elevations will observe highs in the high 90s to a few
degrees over 100 and widespread overnight lows reaching into the
upper 60s and warmer. Increasingly warm overnight temperatures will
limit overnight recovery potential which will exacerbate heat
associated risk. Considering highs ranging 95 to 105 degrees and
above average lows, the EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS for locations south
of the Snake Plain and west of the Bear River Range and HEAT
ADVISORIES for all remaining valley locations remain in effect
through the weekend.

The combination of extreme temperatures, elevated winds, and low
humidity has resulted in critical fire conditions across the eastern
Magic Valley, Snake Plain, and select areas further north due to
widespread minimum humidities ranging 7 to 15 percent and wind gusts
ranging 20 to 35 mph. Breezy wind gusts each subsequent afternoon
this week will support near critical fire conditions, especially
across the Snake River Plain. Chances for dry thunderstorms remain
around 5 percent or less today and 5 to 10 percent Friday, generally
over the central mountains, along the Montana divide, and in the
South Hills region. Cropp

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.
Upper ridge axis migrates east slightly, allowing moisture to
pull north through the Great Basin. Although temperatures remain
hot through the extended period, this should be the last day of
the widespread triple digit high temperatures for lower
elevations. That said, the incoming moisture will help to hold min
temps up slightly, so there is potential for heat related
headlines to continue into Sunday. We start to see thunder chances
increase across higher elevations Saturday into Sunday, peaking
Monday as a weak shortwave system passes to the north, flattening
the ridge. Precipitable water values increase, so storms should
trend from dry on Saturday to a mix of wet/dry by Monday. Ridge
rebounds through the remainder of the extended, with a lessening
threat of thunderstorms into midweek. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...Gusty afternoon winds today, otherwise VFR conditions
with minimal cloud cover. We are still watching the potential for
smoke impacts due to wildfires to the west, but the smoke is not
expected to impact terminal VSBY at this time. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The warming and drying trend continues to turn fuels
critical across more of the region. Critical fire conditions are
forecast today with widespread minimum humidities ranging 7 to 15
percent and wind gusts ranging 20 to 35 mph. RED FLAG WARNINGS are
in effect this afternoon and evening for Fire Weather Zones 410,
422, 425, and 427. Breezy wind gusts each subsequent afternoon this
week will support near critical fire conditions, especially
across FWZ 410. There is up to a 5 percent chance of dry
thunderstorms this afternoon in Fire Weather Zones 475 and 476, as
well as Zone 411 and the northern extent of Zone 410. For Friday,
there is a 5 to 10 percent chance in the same areas, as well as
Zone 427. Chances for dry thunderstorms increase throughout the
weekend timeframe as a trough moves onshore and monsoonal moisture
is lifted north. Cropp

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Saturday night for IDZ051>055-
061-062-065>068-070-075.

Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ425.

Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ410.

Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ422-427.

Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT Saturday night for
IDZ056>059.

&&