Drought in Hawaii, August 1 to 31, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
809 PM HST Wed Jul 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will trend weaker through Friday, then gradually
strengthen through the weekend to become moderate to breezy by
early next week. Limited low clouds and showers will favor
windward and mauka areas with the potential exceptions being on
Friday when winds may be light enough to allow for sea breeze
development and on Friday night into Saturday as a plume of
slightly enhanced moisture moves through the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast remains on track and no changes were made. A low
pressure system is situated about 1000 miles northeast of the
state as of this afternoon. This low is weakening the ridge that
is extending across the Eastern and Central Pacific, which in turn
is reducing the pressure gradient across the state. Winds will
trend weaker through Friday as the low pressure system broadens to
our north. With a fairly dry and stable airmass over the state,
limited clouds and showers will remain concentrated over windward
and mauka areas through the end of the week, with a few more
clouds over leeward interior areas possible on Friday as winds may
be light enough to support sea breeze development. For Kona
slopes of the Big Island, clouds will increase in coverage during
the daytime hours as sea breezes develop and then clear/push
offshore overnight as land breezes kick in.

Global models show a subtle plume of enhanced moisture moving
across the state Friday night through Saturday, which may bring
an uptick in low clouds and showers to windward and mauka areas
through that period.

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will then gradually return
over the weekend into early next week as the low lifts further
northeastward, allowing the ridge to strengthen northeast of the
state.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trade winds are expected to continue during the rest of
the work week. A mostly dry and stable airmass overhead will limit
cloud and showers, with VFR conditions expected to prevail.

No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

Trade winds will gradually ease through Friday as a broad area of
low pressure deepens far northeast of the state. Wind speeds will
restrengthen to moderate to locally strong levels over the
weekend as the ridge to the north builds back over the islands.

A compact storm force low tracked eastward along 25S to 30S
between 170W and 150W this past weekend. This storm should produce
a moderate south swell with long period forerunners building
slowly Thursday, peaking Friday night, then slowly declining over
the weekend. Surf heights at the peak of the swell should remain
below High Surf Advisory criteria.

Surf along east facing shores will slowly decline by the end of
the week as trade winds decline. Surf along north facing shores
will remain tiny through the end of the week. In the long range,
a small out of season north- northwest swell is possible around
Monday of next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Shigesato