A very hot and unstable airmass under steep mid level lapse rates of 7-8 degC/km and bulk shear of near 40-50 kts produced clusters of strong to severe storms in the late afternoon and evening as a short wave trough overhead.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A very hot and unstable airmass under steep mid level lapse rates of 7-8 degC/km and bulk shear of near 40-50 kts produced clusters of strong to severe storms in the late afternoon and evening as a short wave trough overhead.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 1:12 PM EST, 4 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 212 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... ...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF US-82 IN SE GA THIS EVENING... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Stagnant pattern over the last few day has started to break down with the mean low layer high shifting off to the southeast while the upper ridge flattens and an upstream trough carves its way into the Deep South. Strengthening southwesterly (offshore) flow has pinned the Atlantic sea breeze to the immediate coast this afternoon. With the breezy offshore winds holding off the sea breeze, hot conditions have ensued this afternoon as temps soar to the low to mid 90s all the way to the coast, with heat index into the upper 90s to near 100 once again. Significant subsidence capping in the low levels will inhibit storm chances through most of the day until a prefrontal trough enters SE GA early this evening from the northwest. While the latest RAOB verifies the strong low-level cap, there is also very steep lapse rates aloft which will foster a surplus of elevated instability (MLCAPE of 2,000+ j/kg) through tonight. These competing factors, along with weakening dynamic, have kept confidence in storm coverage on the low side. That said, isolated strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out, with primary threats being hail and downburst/outflow winds, mainly north US-82 in SE GA. Through the overnight hours the weakening frontal zone will push into NE FL and may trigger widely scattered showers along it but with the loss of considerable dynamics the thunderstorms are likely to be isolated at best until after daybreak Tuesday. Layers of clouds and light southwesterly winds will deter fog development and keep lows in the low 70s in land and mid/upper 70s along the ocean/river front. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Scattered showers and storms forming ahead of the advancing frontal boundary will gradually push out of the forecast area and diminish by Tuesday evening with drier and more stable conditions building in on Wednesday as high pressure following the frontal passage settles across the forecast area. Strong to severe storms are not anticipated for Tuesday with convective developments expected to be more inhibited on Wednesday due to the influence of high pressure, however scattered to isolated formations cannot be ruled out at this time. High temperatures through midweek will rise into the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s over inland areas and in the lower 70s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Chances for convection will increase by the end of the week and into the weekend as prevailing flow shifts to become more out of the north and northeast as high pressure to the north moves eastward and brings in a more moist onshore flow for the forecast area. Daily high temperatures will drop below the seasonal average through the end of the week with overnight low temperatures remaining at near normal levels. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR cumulus and a west to southwesterly wind prevails at all sites with a wind shift to an ESE to SE direction at KSSI, KSGJ, and KCRG over the next couple of hours as the pinned sea breeze attempts to push inland. A cool front moving in from the northwest tonight will bring potential for t'storms, mainly at KSSI after 00z. Weakening of the front and the supporting disturbance will lower t'storm chances across most of NE FL through the overnight hours with VCSH more likely. No concern for fog or low stratus given the continuation of light westerly winds around 4-8 kts and mostly cloudy skies overnight. The front will slowly track south toward central FL through Tuesday with skies clearing and winds turning WNW in its wake. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A weak cool front will slide into the waters from the north Tuesday morning with showers and isolated storms developing ahead of it overnight tonight. That front will stall south of the waters Tuesday night and remain there through Thursday as high pressure builds to the north. Onshore flow will increase toward the end of the week as high pressure builds northeast and another front pushes across the water this upcoming weekend. Strengthening flow should result in rising seas offshore by Sunday. Rip currents: Low risk is expected Tuesday with low-end Moderate risk possible with sea breeze development Wednesday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Moderate river flooding is forecast end of the week on the Santa Fe at Three Rivers Estates, just touching the moderate category. The Satilla River basin remains in Minor Flood stage at Atkinson (but coming down) and portions of the Suwannee are expected near Minor Flood stage this week. Minor flooding will be possible towards mid to late for the lower Santa Fe River near the gauge at Hildreth. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 92 67 91 / 50 10 10 10 SSI 73 91 72 90 / 40 20 10 10 JAX 73 94 69 94 / 30 20 10 10 SGJ 73 93 72 91 / 20 30 10 10 GNV 72 93 67 95 / 30 30 10 20 OCF 72 93 70 95 / 20 40 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
602 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024
GAZ132-272315-
Coffee GA-
602 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COFFEE COUNTY AFTER 645 PM EDT...
At 600 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a severe thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Mystic, or 11 miles east of Ashburn, moving east
at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of at least 45 to 55 mph and at least nickel
size hail possible after 645 PM EDT.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Broxton, Ambrose, and Pridgen.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Jacksonville.
&&
LAT...LON 3180 8284 3144 8286 3151 8308 3156 8306
3161 8306 3163 8303 3163 8301 3166 8301
3166 8300 3178 8300 3179 8298 3178 8292
3179 8290 3178 8289 3178 8287 3180 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 284DEG 30KT 3174 8347
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
NELSONThe Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 58 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:08 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A storm survey by the county EM showed numerous large softwood trees blown down along Bridgetown Road, just south of Countryside Road. The time of damage was based on radar. Radar velocity showed 70-80 mph winds with this storm.
A tree was blown down onto a home off of Bostwick Street. The time of damage was based on radar.
The county EM reported a large tree was blown along Bostwick Street and destroyed a home. Two inhabitants were transported with injuries to the hospital. Four people in total were displaced. The time of the event was based on radar.
Widespread trees and power lines blown down including along Mora Road and Bridgetown Road. The time of damage was based on radar.
Trees and powerlines were blown down by Bridgetown Road and Old Columbus Road. The time of damage was based on radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1170711, 1169318, 1170714, 1169323, 1169325.