Cold in Georgia, January 20 to 21, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
350 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest flow will continue through this morning, bringing breezing
winds and snow to the mountains. An Arctic air mass will filter into
the region over the weekend, bringing bitterly cold temperatures and
frigid wind chills. Temperatures will gradually warm Sunday through
the end of next week, as a rainy and unsettled pattern sets in for
most of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 am Saturday: Regional radar imagery and web cams continue
to indicate flurries and light snow showers persist near the TN/NC
border early this morning. Showers are mostly light, but there
remain isolated specks of enhanced reflectivity, suggesting bursts
of moderate snow remain possible. Despite steadily depleting/
increasingly shallow moisture that is expected through the morning
hours, very cold temps at the top of the mixed layer ensure that the
atmosphere will continue to "overperform" in terms of flurries and
snow showers production, as the dendritic ice crystal zone remains
activated. As winds continue to gust, areas of blowing snow may be
seen at times. Additional accums will be light, but some locations
could pick up an additional inch or so, especially north of I-40
along the TN/NC border. Meanwhile, any additional accums will be
very light and primarily confined to the high elevations of the
Smokies for areas southwest of I-40, and will cancel the Winter Wx
Advisory there. Since Wind Chill Advisory wording was being wrapped
into that product, we will add a new Wind Chill Advisory for the TN
border counties from Haywood southwest to the existing Advisory for
the remainder of the mountains. Some areas across the higher
elevations (mainly above 4000') will likely not warm above Wind
Chill Advisory criteria this afternoon.

Snow showers slowly taper off through the day, with PoPs not
actually dropping to less than 20% until about midnight, but
anything more than a dusting is unlikely after noon or so.
Otherwise, very cold conditions are expected through the period,
with temps expected to be around 20 degrees below normal. Temps will
struggle to warm above the teens across the mountains valleys today,
while only areas southeast of I-85 are expected to warm above
freezing. Wind chill values are expected to reach Advisory criteria
once again tonight/early Sunday, but will postpone any decisions for
a new Advisory until the current one expires later this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Saturday: The arctic high pressure center will
remain overhead Sunday into Monday keeping below climo temps around.
We will start out bitterly cold again Sunday morning with temps
ranging from the single digits (NC mountains) to the teens (east of
the NC mountains). Lingering low-end wind gusts across the NC
mountains will lead to below zero wind chills again early Sunday
morning. The majority of the NC mountains will see wind chills from
-5 to -15 degrees, so another Wind Chill Advisory will most likely
be needed. Wind chills will be much quicker to recover compared to
Saturday, rising above 0 degrees across the mountains by the mid to
late morning hours. Despite below climo temps lingering through the
much of short term, temps will gradually warm through the period as
upper ridging tracks across the eastern US. Highs on Sunday will be
noticeably warmer, ending up well above freezing across most of the
forecast area thanks to sunny skies. However, higher elevations in
the NC mountains will likely remain near or below freezing. Clear
skies will linger Sunday night into daybreak Monday allowing for
excellent radiational cooling conditions. Lows will drop into the
teens and lower 20s across the forecast area (much warmer compared
to the last two nights, but still cold!). The higher elevations in
the NC mountains should finally rise above freezing Monday
afternoon, with highs reaching into the mid to upper 30s. Highs
elsewhere will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cloud cover will
gradually increase from SW to NE Monday into Monday night as
moisture increases ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This
will limit radiational cooling overnight, allowing lows to end up a
few degrees above climo. Despite the clouds, temps should still end
up near or below freezing across the region. Monday night should be
our last round of freezing temps for the foreseeable future as the
warming trend continues into the extended forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Saturday: Well, you better take advantage of the
dry, albeit cold, and sunny weather this weekend as it will be
cloudy and unsettled most of next week. A quasi-stationary frontal
boundary will creep in from the west throughout the workweek before
stalling across the Southeast next weekend. We will remain in the
warm sector throughout the front's progression thanks to persistent
S/SW'ly 850 mb flow. Thus, all liquid precip is expected with this
system. The influx of gulf moisture ahead of the front will allow
for multiple rounds of rain from Tuesday onwards. Some slight timing
differences remain between the deterministic guidance sources
regarding the onset of precip on Tuesday, so capped PoPs to chance
for now. Have likely to categorical PoPs from Wednesday onwards as
global models all generally agree regarding the potential for
widespread rain each day. Embedded thunderstorms may be possible
towards the end of the workweek and into the weekend as the GEFS
plumes show a few hundred J/kg of instability. However, confidence
on this is low with this being towards the end of the period. Temps
will gradually warm through the period, trending well above climo
starting Wednesday. Well above climo temps will stick around through
the end of the extended. Highs should reach into the 60s for most
locations Thursday into Saturday, with a few areas climbing into the
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere. VFR/SKC conditions are expected through this
TAF period, except at KAVL, where increasingly shallow moisture
moving up the French Broad Valley will result in continued potential
for cigs in the 025-035 range through about daybreak. Otherwise,
gusty NW winds (10-15 G 20-25kt) will persist at KAVL through much
of the period. Winds will generally favor N/NW at around 10 kts
(give or take) at other sites through the period. Some periodic
15-20 kt gusts are expected at these sites, esp during the
afternoon.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions continue through Monday. Precipitation
and restrictions may develop by late Tuesday, possibly continuing
through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for GAZ010.
NC...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ051>053-058-
     059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ033-
     048>050.
SC...Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for SCZ101>103.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1025 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ008>014-019-104>109-210330-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-
Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
1025 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The arctic air mass will linger through the weekend. Cold
temperatures and bitter wind chills are likely across the area
Saturday into Sunday morning. See the Special Weather Statement for
more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>052-058-210330-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
1025 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

The arctic air mass will linger through the weekend. Cold
temperatures and bitter wind chills are likely across the area
Saturday into Sunday morning. See the Special Weather Statement for
more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report snow and ice accumulations to our
office.

NCZ053-210330-
Buncombe-
1025 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Advisory.

The arctic air mass will linger through the weekend. Cold
temperatures and bitter wind chills are likely across the area
Saturday into Sunday morning. See the Special Weather Statement for
more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-NCZ059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ101>103-210330-
Rabun-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
1025 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

The arctic air mass will linger through the weekend. Cold
temperatures and bitter wind chills are likely across the area
Saturday into Sunday morning. See the Special Weather Statement for
more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.