A surface front lingered from near St. Augustine to Gainesville with an approaching upper level trough.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A surface front lingered from near St. Augustine to Gainesville with an approaching upper level trough. The upper trough cooled temperatures aloft while high atmospheric moisture continued over the area. Convergent bands of locally heavy rainfall and isolated embedded thunderstorms developed across NE FL as onshore flow increased as high pressure wedged southward from the north and the local pressure gradient increased.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 8, 7:13 AM EST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 813 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 813 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 Occasional light showers will impact SSI and GNV this morning, with occasional MVFR visibilities expected at SSI, while VFR conditions prevail elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to overspread the regional terminals after 15Z, with TEMPO and PROB30 groups for MVFR to IFR conditions during heavier downpours, along with briefly gusty winds, extending through around 00Z. Showers and thunderstorms may linger at the Duval County terminals and SGJ into the evening hours, but confidence was too low to include anything other than vicinity coverage at this time. Showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms will then develop after midnight around the SSI terminal, with convection potentially lingering through the predawn hours on Monday as a north-northeasterly wind surge moves across the southeast GA coast. MVFR ceilings will otherwise prevail this evening outside of any lingering convection, with IFR conditions expected to develop after 07Z at VQQ and GNV. Northeasterly surface winds of 5-10 knots will develop by 15Z today at the regional terminals, with speeds diminishing to around 5 knots or less overnight at the northeast FL terminals. && .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 405 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 A frontal boundary is quasi-stationary over north central FL area and may drift a bit northward later this morning. Another cold front is located over south central GA to the wrn FL panhandle. Aloft, mid/upper level troughing extends from a 500 mb low over the eastern Great Lakes to the TN Valley to the central Gulf coast. Several embedded shortwaves are seen in the guidance from southeast LA to the FL Big Bend. Deep steering flow remains southwest with PWATs remaining high at about 2.2 to 2.4 inches per analysis and 00z JAX Sounding. The trough will only slowly move downstream with the shortwave troughs move eastward in the prevailing 500 mb flow from the west. The combination of shortwave forcing and frontal boundaries over the region through tonight will continue to support high rain chances. Area of more moderate to heavy rainfall are possible as frontal wave along both fronts and shortwave impulses impact the region. The heaviest concentration looks to be near the stationary front across the southeast zones and will place heavy rainfall wording there and gusty winds. Toward the north over our GA zones, there is a more stable airmass and more stratiform rain likely. Highs today will be held to below normal owing to rain and abundant clouds, with 70s far north to lower to mid 80s going south. Tonight, scattered to numerous showers/rains and a few storms expected in the evening, with the best chance of deep convection for northeast FL where greater lift is anticipated. Anticipate areas of rain and any stronger cells/tstorms to diminish overnight as the airmass cools and mid level lift looks relatively weak compared to this afternoon. Lows tonight mostly in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 405 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 The core of a strong mid/upper level trough will lift north from New Brunswick across the St Lawrence river valley through Quebec Monday while elongating southward along the east coast with ridging in it's wake shifting into the Midwest and Great Lakes. This will allow surface high pressure to build eastward through the OH river valley Monday and cause the stalled frontal boundary to sink into central FL late in the day as a surge of northeasterly winds sink down the SE coast into the area. High moisture levels, shortwave energy and increasing NE winds/convergent flow along the coast will induce convergent rain bands moving onshore with embedded T'storms, with coastal convergent showers continuing to move onshore overnight from the coast to about US-17. Cloudy skies will keep highs below normal in the upper 70s to low 80s over SE GA and low to mid 80s over NE FL. Tuesday, the surface high north of the region over the central Appalachians will move gradually across the Shenandoah Valley to the Delmarva peninsula which will press the frontal boundary south of I-4 in central FL with a drier airmass filtering into interior SE GA with dewpoints mixing down into the 60s. This will present a gradient of shower coverage with highest chances south of a line from Gainesville to Jacksonville while coverage decreases with NW extent to isolated/scattered levels before drying out NW of US-84. Scattered embedded storms possible over north central FL closer to the front where higher moisture and instability will reside. Winds will be breezy along the coast and the St Johns river 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Below normal highs anticipated on Tuesday in the low/mid 80s for the majority of the area with upper 80s over north central FL. Lows will begin in the mid 60s over inland SE GA Tuesday morning and the low/mid 70s over NE FL and the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 405 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 Ridging aloft from the Appalachian mountains to the east coast will flatten to the north and shift into the western Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday. This will move high pressure centered initially over near the Delmarva coast ENE into the western Atlantic waters as a tropical low develops far to our west near the TX Gulf coast. Flow will transition to more easterly through the week and remain breezy, especially along the coast as the low to the west moves NE into the lower MS valley before weakening. The frontal boundary will will lift back towards the area Thursday and lift north of the area Friday into Saturday as the remnants of the low moves NE towards the TN river valley by Saturday. Highest chances for rain and storms will be Wednesday into Friday as the front lifts northward and flow becomes south to SW aloft over a rich airmass with PWATs above 2.0 inches. Increasing shear of 20-30 knots may present a risk for strong T'storms, especially along the proximity of the front. The elevated onshore flow will bring rough surf conditions and high rip current risk during the period from Tuesday through next weekend. Temperatures during the period will feature highs about 5 or so degrees below normal with low to mid 80s for most of the area with warmer highs in the upper 80s across the southern St Johns river basin warming to near normal highs in the upper 80s by Friday and Saturday. Lows will begin a bit below normal over inland SE GA and return to near normal during the week while staying near to a bit above normal over NE FL. && .MARINE... Issued at 405 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 Fairly light and variable winds of 5-10 kt over the waters at this time with frontal boundary stalled near the northeast FL waters. As high pressure slowly builds from the north later today and into tonight, winds will become more northeasterly up to 10-15 kt. Occasional showers and a few storms expected in the meantime through tonight. On Monday, the front will slide southward and increasing northeast winds are expected from north to south but mainly affecting the northern most waters and a small craft advisory is possible by mid to late aftn for the GA waters. Further increases in northeast winds and building seas by Tuesday with most of the waters very near or at small craft advisory. Unsettled weather pattern continues Tuesday night into Wed with high pressure ridge remaining fixed across the Mid Atlantic and northeast to east winds continuing over the area waters up to about 15-20 kt and seas that may be near the 4-7 ft range...so small craft advisory will be possible still. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is advertised today and for Monday with surf of about 2-3 ft. Increasing rip current risk late Monday and certainly Tuesday and Wednesday with rough surf. Looks like high risk is likely by Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 405 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 The heaviest rainfall amounts today looks to be across parts of southern Duval, St Johns, Flagler, Putnam, and Marion counties as deeper convection develops there this afternoon and the evening hours. Forecast rainfall amounts are up to around 1-2 inches in these areas, but localized flooding will be possible with potential amounts up to 2-4 inches. As for the St Johns River, water levels are generally in the action stage in the mid and lower St Johns. Levels may be trending gradually upwards Monday through Wednesday as waters are trapped from the northeast flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 77 67 79 65 / 70 50 20 10 SSI 80 72 79 74 / 70 60 70 30 JAX 83 72 81 73 / 80 60 70 40 SGJ 84 74 84 75 / 80 70 80 50 GNV 83 72 84 72 / 80 50 80 10 OCF 86 74 86 74 / 80 50 60 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 130 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:59 UTC.
6 heavy rain, 1 flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A 24 hour rainfall for South Flagler Beach of 5.77 inches from 9:00am September 8 | to 9:am September 9 was 5.77 inches.
A 24 hour rainfall for Southwest Palm Coast was 5.66 inches from 9:00am September 8 | to 9:am September 9.
A mesonet station FW5640 Fernandina Beach measured | 5.63 inches of rain. About 2 inches fell | between 630 and 730 am.
A mesonet station | EW6604 Crescent City measured 4.65 inches of | rain. About 4 inches fell between 220 PM and | 420 PM.
A personal weather station Island Time - KFLFERNA100 measured 4.06 inches of rain. | Rain began around 545 AM. About 3 inches | fell between 545 AM and 745 AM.
At 2:18 pm, the public shared a photo of minor street | flooding at the intersection of N Market St | and Confederate St. Road was passable. At 3:09 pm, a NWS Employee reported minor street flooding in Neptune Beach and Atlantic Beach. There was about 2 to 3 inches of standing water on the roads. At 6 pm, Duval county Emergency Management reported flooding along Dulawan Dr and along Francis Ave between Forsyth Ct and Walter Rd in Neptune Beach. At 7 pm, Duval EM shared a video of flooding along LaSalle St and San Marco Blvd. Wakes from passing cars was approached businesses.
A public weather station in Micanopy measured | about 4 inches of rain in just under 2 | hours.
A tree was blown down near Mandarin | Meadows Dr and San Jose Blvd. Saturated | soils make it easier for trees to be knocked | down with little wind. The cost of damage was unknown but it was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1214313, 1214314, 1214316, 1214318, 1214315, 1214329, 1214322, 1214354.