Rip Current in Florida, October 13, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
203 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IN THE ST JOHNS RIVER CONTINUES...

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...

Dry air and high pressure in place has led to abundant sunshine
and pleasantly warm conditions early this afternoon. No
significant weather concerns are expected tonight as an even drier
air advects across the area ahead of an approaching front. Clear
skies and little wind, if any, tonight should allow low
temperatures to cool into the 50s and to near 60 for inland areas
and in the low to mid 60s near the coast. Patchy shallow fog is a
possibility tonight mainly south of a line from Gainesville to St
Augustine.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)

Digging upper trough will push a cold front over the SE US
southward across the area. Monday will be the warmest day of the
week with WSW flow and sunny skies allowing highs to rise into the
mid to upper 80s. The frontal passage is then expected Monday
night into Tuesday morning. With minimal moisture, the front is
anticipated to pass rain-free and only bring an increase in cloud
cover. A cooler, drier airmass begins to filter into the region
from the northwest in the wake of the front. A north-south
gradient prevails on Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid 70s
to mid 80s and lows dropping into the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through next Sunday)

Upper trough over the eastern seaboard and ridging over the MS
river basin will maintain northerly flow aloft and cold air
advection for mid-week. The coldest day will be Wednesday with
highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s and overnight lows dropping into
low 40s over inland SE GA to around 60 along the NE FL coast.
Temperatures gradually moderate through the week as surface high
pressure builds into the eastern US and flow shifts to onshore.
Subsidence and a dry airmass will continue a mostly rain-free
week. Although, a shower may be possible along the NE FL coast
this weekend. Breezy east-northeasterly winds develop as the local
pressure gradient remains tight. These east-northeast winds will
result in elevated extratropical surge values to the coast of at
least 1 foot, which when combined with full moon by Thursday will
bring coastal flooding concerns to NE FL and SE GA beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions prevail and persist through the evening and overnight
at most airfields. Patchy fog may disrupt flight conditions at times
at KVQQ and KGNV toward dawn Monday. A sea breeze has begun to push
inland and should reach the I-95 corridor through the rest of the
afternoon while westerly flow continues elsewhere. Winds trend
calm tonight but will increase out of the west again by mid
morning Monday with speeds around 8-12 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will shift south as a cold front approaches from the
northwest tonight. That front will push across the waters Monday
night followed by building high pressure from the northwest through
Wednesday. Breezy northwesterly winds immediately behind the front
will reach Caution levels Monday and enhance Tuesday night into
Wednesday, warranting the potential for a Small Craft Advisory. A
second wind surge, this time from the northeast, is expected late in
the week as strong high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic
region. Shower chances will increase late in the week as an inverted
coastal trough organizes across the waters.

Rip Currents: High risk conditions will lower to Moderate levels
Monday and Tuesday as surf reduces to around 3 feet or less.
Increasing risk is expected Wednesday as northerly winds surge
across the coastal waters behind a passing front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Primary change this afternoon was a downgrade from Coastal Flood
Warning to Advisory for the Intracoastal Waterway in Flagler
County. The Advisory for that area will likely need to be extended
prior to expiration at 8 pm this evening. Otherwise, a Coastal
Flood Warning remains in effect for the St Johns River from around
Downtown Jacksonville southward to Lake George. Recession
continues but Moderate flooding is likely at high tide at most
locations through at least early this week. Water levels may
gradually rise during the late in the week as high astronomical
tides and a nor'easter combine; water levels may locally encroach
on Major levels.

Southeast GA: Moderate flooding is ongoing along the Alapaha
River near the gauge at Statenville, where water levels should
fall back to minor flooding by Monday. Water levels along the
Altamaha river at the Charlotteville gauge have fallen below flood
stage, and water levels at Baxley and Doctortown will fall below
flood stage Monday. Minor flooding along lower portions of the
Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson will continue through
early portions of the week.

Northeast FL: Minor flooding is expected along lower and middle
portions of the Santa Fe River during the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  87  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  64  86  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  60  88  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  86  66  82 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  58  86  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  59  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for FLZ033-038-132-
     137-325.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ125-
     133-138-225.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&