Evening thunderstorms associated with the sea breeze produce damage near Willow Oak in Polk County.
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The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
Evening thunderstorms associated with the sea breeze produce damage near Willow Oak in Polk County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 5, 7:07 PM EST, 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
807 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a fairly
dry airmass aloft of the Florida Peninsula early this evening,
with only a few stray showers and storms managing to break through
across the area this afternoon. 00z KTBW radar imagery is also
showing the east and west coast sea breezes continuing to push
inland and about to collide over interior portions of the forecast
area, so a few more storms developing this evening can't be ruled
out yet...but most locations will need to continue waiting for a
chance of rain.
Overall, the forecast looks on track for a mostly dry day again
on Thursday near the coast, with some afternoon and evening
showers mainly over the interior. A few minor rain chances were
made for the next couple of hours to keep up with radar and
satellite trends. No other changes are planned for the evening
update.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Weak upper ridging extends northward along the eastern seaboard,
while surface high pressure north of the Bahamas ridges west over
Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This is keeping a predominant
easterly flow over the region today. Latest HRRR guidance has
showers and storms developing over the interior later this
afternoon/evening with the highest coverage over Polk and Highlands
Counties with the west and east coast sea breeze collisions.
By Thursday morning, the upper ridging and surface high move
southeastward while a weak frontal boundary and upper troughing
moves through the southeast U.S. This will bring a shift in the
winds to the south during the morning and then westerly by the
afternoon hours. This boundary will stall out north of the area
through the end of the week, while weak high pressure ridges over
south Florida. PWAT values will fluctuate between 1.5 - 1.7 inches
through the end of the week, which will support scattered showers
and isolated storms.
The boundary pushes south and east of the area by Saturday allowing
for weak high pressure to build in over the eastern gulf. This will
keep predominant westerly winds over the area and will also usher in
some slightly drier air with PWAT values dipping to around 1.1 - 1.4
inches over the weekend. This will limit shower and storm activity
on Saturday and Sunday.
The ridge will lift slightly northward by the start of next week,
putting Florida under a south-southwesterly wind flow. This will
equate to higher PWAT values in the 1.6 - 2.0 inches range. This
increasing moisture will bring more widespread showers and storms
for the first half of next week. Daytime highs will top out in the
low to mid 90's each day with overnight lows in the 70's.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 807 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
A few showers or storms are lingering along sea breeze boundaries
and could still impact area terminals tonight, mainly around KLAL
and KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD. Elsewhere, rain chances are too low to
mention in the TAFs at this time, but a stray shower overnight is
not out of the question. Mainly dry and VFR conditions will
continue on Thursday, with a few showers or storms possible over
the interior and around southwest Florida.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
High pressure north of the Bahamas is expected to start shifting
southeast later today into tonight. Predominant easterly winds
become onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Showers and storms
should develop over the land this afternoon/evening, drifting into
the Gulf during the late evening and early overnight hours. A weak
frontal boundary approaches the Gulf waters on Thursday and Friday,
which will shift winds to the west through the end of the week. As a
result, showers could develop along the coast early and push inland
during the afternoon. Winds will remain less than 15 knots and seas
2 feet or less through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
High pressure begins to gradually move southeast today as a weak
boundary approaches the area on Thursday and Friday. Scattered
showers and isolated storms possible through the end of the week.
The boundary moves southeast of the area by Saturday allowing for
high pressure to build into the area, which will usher in some
slightly drier air over the weekend. Some critical RH values below
35 percent will be possible on Saturday and Sunday afternoon, but
winds are expected to be light so no Red Flag Warning should be
needed. Moisture rebounds by next Monday as a more southerly wind
flow sets up over the region. Higher rain chances also expected for
the first half of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 93 79 92 / 10 10 30 40
FMY 77 95 77 94 / 20 10 30 40
GIF 74 98 74 96 / 20 30 20 40
SRQ 78 93 79 92 / 10 0 30 30
BKV 71 95 72 93 / 10 0 30 40
SPG 82 92 82 91 / 10 0 30 40
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WynnThe Tampa radar (KTBW), 46 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:57 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Public video and reports shared via social media depict multiple fences toppled and damage to multiple pool cages just south of Lakeland Linder International Airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, June 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1188361.