Flood in Florida, January 15, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
216 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

A quasi-zonal upper level pattern persists over the area through the
week. A warm front over southern Florida will lift northward through
the day bringing scattered showers and an isolated storm to the
area. Areas of dense fog will also be likely during the overnight
hours into Tuesday. A dense fog advisory has been issued from Tampa
Bay southward from 10 pm through 10 AM. A cold front will move
through the area on Tuesday producing widespread showers and
isolated storms. The front pushes south of east of Florida by early
Wednesday morning as strong high pressure builds in from the
northwest in the wake of this front. Some much cooler and drier air
will filter into the region under northerly winds on Wednesday. Some
freezing temps are likely on Wednesday morning along the Nature
Coast with 40's and 50's from Tampa Bay southward. Daytime highs on
Wednesday will only reach the 50's and 60's. Thursday morning will
continue to be on the cold side with some brief freezing temps
possible along the Nature Coast and 40's and 50's elsewhere. The
high pressure moves off the Carolina coastline by Thursday afternoon
and will bring a brief warmup with daytime highs back in the 60's
and 70's on Thursday and Friday. A warm front lifts northward once
again late Thursday into Friday producing brief periods of light
rain to the area. The warm front lifts northeast of the area by
Friday morning as the dry cold front moves across Florida. Strong
Canadian high pressure builds in over the central U.S. over the
weekend and will help usher in the next wave of cool area through
the weekend. Weekend overnight lows will dip into the 30's and 40's
and daytime highs will top out only in the 50's and 60's.
Temperatures will moderate closer to average by the beginning of
next week with pleasant weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

A warm front lifts north through the day producing some low CIGs,
and scattered showers at all terminals. Lower VSBY can also be
expected in showers and mist dropping down to 2-4 miles this
afternoon and evening. Areas of dense fog will be possible during
the overnight hours with IFR/LIFR VSBY/CIGs likely starting between
06-09Z and continuing through 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

Light winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet expected
through Tuesday morning. Dense sea fog is expected during the
overnight hours from Tampa Bay southward that has warranted the
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory for early Tuesday morning. A cold
front moves through the area on Tuesday producing widespread showers
and isolated storms. Winds and seas will build behind this cold
front Tuesday and Tuesday night with SCEC conditions likely. A brief
period of SCA conditions is also possible. Winds and seas will
subside on Wednesday and Thursday. A stronger cold front will push
across the waters on Friday with winds and seas building behind the
front. SCA conditions will be likely on the waters Friday afternoon
and early Saturday, with winds and seas slacking off a bit Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night, however SCEC conditions may remain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

A warm front will move from south to north over the area today with
an increasing chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Widespread areas of dense fog will develop across west central and
southwest Florida tonight, and has warranted the issuance of a Dense
Fog Advisory for early Tuesday morning. A cold front will push
across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday with showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Some lower humidity values are expected on Wednesday
and Saturday, but lighter winds will preclude the need for any Red
Flag Warnings through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  74  44  58 /  50  60   0   0
FMY  68  78  54  66 /  20  60  10   0
GIF  64  78  43  58 /  50  80  10   0
SRQ  65  75  46  61 /  20  70  10   0
BKV  60  75  37  57 /  60  70   0   0
SPG  64  72  46  57 /  40  60   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday
     for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday
     for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay
     waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery