Damaging Wind in Florida, August 3, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
631 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

VFR conditions prevail for the entire forecast area through the
period. Isolated showers and storms may move into the interior
portions of the forecast area tonight before waning after
midnight. Afternoon showers and storms are once again expected
across the area Saturday. Any storms can temporarily reduce
ceilings and visibility below MVFR and IFR flight categories.
Winds will remain out of the southwest to west at 5 to 10 knots.
MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

An upper level ridge nosing east over the Southeast begins to
retreat west as a mean upper level trough over the Atlantic Coast
deepens and shifts west (under the influence of another upper ridge
over the open Atlantic). A surface ridge builds west over Florida
and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico with the building Atlantic upper
ridge, bringing a more organized northwest to northerly flow to the
forecast area and nearby. Guidance is advertising a band of drier
air (precipitable h20 levels dropping into the 1.5"-1.7" range )
moving south across the forecast area this afternoon into this
evening. This should help to limit any convection this afternoon to
areas south of Highway 84. Convection will quickly drop off this
evening, redeveloping offshore late tonight into Saturday morning.
Guidance is advertising a band of moisture moving south over the
forecast area Saturday ( with drier air hot on its heels), allowing
for an uptick in PoPs for Saturday. Highest PoPs continue to be
south of Highway 84. Temperatures Saturday are expected to remain
above seasonal norms, ranging from the low 90s along the coast to
mid 90s east of the Tombigbee River and upper 90s west. Heat indices
are again expected to rise into the 104 to 110 degree range, with a
Heat Advisory in effect for the forecast area from 15z/10am to 00z/7
pm. Temperatures tonight are expected to bottom out in the mid 70s
north of Highway 84 to around 80 along and near the coast.
/16

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Potential Cyclone #4 Key Takeaways:

1. NHC started advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) #4 at
10 AM this morning. Models trended slightly east overnight last
night, and the initial forecast track is generally along the center
of this guidance. The initial forecast track is also very much
inline with the Scenario #1 that we mentioned as the most likely
scenario. At this time that thinking still seems very reasonable.

2. Some uncertainty still remains with regard to the initial
track (as well as future intensity) due to a well defined center
of circulation still not being evident, although it does appear
that one may be beginning to develop in the vicinity of south
central Cuba. Some uncertainties will likely remain until the
system actually forms a true center tonight or early Saturday, and
there could be some slight fluctuations of the track to the left
or right of the current forecast over the next day or so.

3. While still early to know if any local impacts are expected,
beach hazards still appear to be the main impact that we would see
in our area at this time, as swell from the system likely arrives
along our coast sometime late Sunday or into Monday, which will lead
to an increased rip current threat along the AL and northwest FL
beaches. With the current track of PTC #4 (which is expected to
become Tropical Storm Debby sometime on Saturday), we are not
anticipating anything in the way of even minor coastal flooding in
our area. In general through, unless there are major changes over
the next few days, it currently it appears that no significant
impacts at all will occur over our area as a result of PTC #4.

As for the remainder of the forecast, with the expected track of
PTC #4 (likely to become Tropical Storm Debby) to remain well to
the east of our area, this system should have no affects on the
sensible weather over our area. The overall pattern will likely
be dominated by 3 main features into the early or middle part of
next week, those being a large upper ridge over the western US,
PTC #4 (Debby) and a trough over the eastern US.

At this time it continues to appear that PCT #4 (Debby) will make
it's way up into the weakness between the ridge to the west and
the trough off to the northeast. The track forecast will be
shifted a tad further west and north on the 4 PM Advisory, and the
exact path of the PTC #4 (Debby) will depend on exactly where the
more well-defined center develops. Even with slight shifts of PTC
#4 (Debby) to the east or west, almost all of the guidance
suggests a generally basic summertime like weather pattern will
persist across our area through most of next week. With the
tropical system likely staying well to our east, increased
subsidence resulting from the upper high to the and west and the
tropical system to the east will likely result in rather dry
conditions across the area most of next week. The wettest days of
the extended period will likely be tomorrow (Saturday) and Sunday,
when we will be looking at scattered to locally numerous showers
and storms across portions of the forecast area, especially
eastern and coastal sections. After that time, from Monday through
Friday of next week, it appears for now that the upper ridging to
the west will actually expand eastward into our area and as a
result will be looking at lower PoPs (only isolated to scattered
showers and storms) for most of next week.

This pattern also would support increased temperatures and
potentially some triple digit temperatures. Compressional heating
due to subsidence combined with clear skies will allow for highs
to climb into at least the upper 90s most of next week and
potentially some triple digits. This will be especially true west
of I-65 closer to the upper ridge where dewpoints will be able to
mix out into the upper 60s. Heat Advisories will likely need to be
continued for much of next week, but the mixing out of dewpoints
should keep us below Heat Warning criteria even with the potential
triple digit high temperatures.

DS/12

MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Light to a times general westerly winds are expected through the
forecast. Potential Tropical Cyclone #4 south central Cuba will
likely move into the southeastern Gulf late Friday night or early
Saturday, and then likely become Tropical Storm Debby over the
eastern eastern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. This could lead to
increased swell possible over open Gulf waters early this weekend,
otherwise, no impacts expected other than locally higher winds
and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      78  97  75  95  76  97  77  98 /  10  50  40  50  20  40  10  20
Pensacola   81  94  77  93  78  94  79  96 /  20  60  50  60  30  50  30  30
Destin      81  92  78  92  79  93  81  94 /  30  50  60  60  50  50  40  30
Evergreen   75  96  73  95  74  96  75  98 /  20  50  30  40  10  20  10  10
Waynesboro  76  97  74  97  75  99  75  99 /  20  20  20  10   0  10   0  10
Camden      75  93  73  94  74  94  74  96 /  30  30  20  20   0  10  10  10
Crestview   77  96  74  94  74  96  76  97 /  10  70  50  60  30  50  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

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