What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 11:45 AM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 11:45 AM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1245 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Area of SHRA/TSRA is ongoing across the Florida Panhandle and
southern Alabama north of JKA. Expect a slow eastward motion to
convection over the next few hours with PNS remaining with TSRA
through 21Z. Convection appears to stay north of JKA with mainly
MVFR cigs through the afternoon. At MOB/BFM, convection is well east
with an MVFR stratocu deck stretching west into southern
Mississippi. MVFR cigs appear to hold through much of the afternoon
then decreasing towards sunset.
High resolution model guidance signals some fog development
overnight at all TAF sites, especially north of coastal sites. Added
LIFR at MOB/BFM with some possibility of VLIFR in the predawn hours
whereas LIFR mainly in cigs at JKA/PNS. Conditions should improve
from fog back to VFR by late morning. /TAE
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
A fairly vigorous shortwave through axis is moving east across the
forecast area this morning, and has initiated another round of
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms over portions of the area,
especially down near the coastal areas of MS and AL. This newer
round of convection is somewhat limited in coverage however,
partially due to the stabilizing effect of the previous remnant MCS
boundary that moved across the area Monday evening. This area of
convection will spread east across the forecast area through the
morning hours, likely extending further inland with heating after
sunrise as the shortwave axis continues east across the area. The
orientation of the rain axis will allow for some training of heavier
cells, with some brief heavy rainfall rates possible at any one
location as the precip moves east across the area. Some brief
localized ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas could
be possible this morning, but no widespread flooding is expected.
Severe storms are not expected. By early this afternoon, the
shortwave axis will be east of our area and rains will end and skies
will begin to clear from west to east. Low to mid level ridging will
build over the forecast area in the wake of the shortwave, and no
rain is expected from late this afternoon through Wednesday. High
temperatures today should be in the lower 80s for most locations,
but some mid 80s over interior southeast MS (where we will likely
see longer duration of direct sunshine) and only mid to upper 70s
near the beaches with a moderating onshore wind flow coming in off
the Gulf. Lows tonight mainly in the lower 60s, but some upper 60s
to lower 70s possible along the beaches and barrier islands. It will
be warmer on Wednesday, with highs ranging from the mid and upper
80s over most interior locations but low to mid 80s closer to the
coast. DS/12
SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
In the wake of an exiting shortwave trough over the Southeast, an
upper ridge builds north over the eastern Conus. Deep layer
southerly flow becomes organized through the latter half of the
week, bringing Gulf moisture inland. The influx of moisture is
well west of the forecast area mid week, but shifts eastward into
the weekend. A series of shortwave troughs pass Friday through
Sunday. The upper ridge maintains enough strength to deflect the
bulk of the energy north of the forecast area, limiting best PoPs
to northwest and northern portions of the forecast area with each
passing trough, along with limiting rain chances to isolated to
low end scattered. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to
keep temperatures above to well above seasonal norms through the
period. High temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 well inland
with around 80s south of I-10 to the coast are expected. Low
temperatures are expected to range from around 60 to the low 60s
north of Highway 84 to mid 60s/upper 60s closer to and along the
coast. /16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 64 87 64 86 65 85 65 86 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 10 10
Pensacola 66 84 66 84 67 83 67 84 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 10 10
Destin 68 82 67 84 69 82 70 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Evergreen 61 88 59 91 62 89 63 89 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 10 20
Waynesboro 60 88 60 90 63 86 63 89 / 0 10 0 10 10 20 10 20
Camden 61 86 59 90 63 86 63 87 / 0 10 0 10 0 10 20 20
Crestview 62 89 60 91 61 89 62 89 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 30, 8:15 AM CST, 5 hours 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
915 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
ALZ056-301500-
Conecuh AL-
915 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTY
THROUGH 1000 AM CDT...
At 914 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Evergreen, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Evergreen and I65 And US 84.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3129 8672 3138 8709 3153 8706 3153 8684
3152 8682 3152 8670 3145 8670
TIME...MOT...LOC 1414Z 278DEG 12KT 3147 8699
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
16-WORSTERSpecial weather statement, Apr 30, 11:36 AM CST, 1 hour 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
FLZ203-205-301815-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OKALOOSA AND EAST
CENTRAL SANTA ROSA COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM CDT...
At 1235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Baker, or 13 miles west of Crestview, moving east
at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Crestview.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3060 8685 3078 8686 3082 8639 3056 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 263DEG 12KT 3070 8680
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
16-WORSTERSpecial weather statement, Apr 30, 12:15 PM CST, 1 hour 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
115 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
FLZ203>206-301900-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
115 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OKALOOSA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...
At 115 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Navarre, or 10 miles southeast of Bagdad, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Mary Esther, Navarre, and Navarre Beach.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3051 8705 3060 8670 3038 8664 3037 8701
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 258DEG 12KT 3046 8695
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
16-WORSTERSpecial weather statement, Apr 30, 12:24 PM CST, 52 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
124 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
FLZ202>204-301915-
Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Escambia Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
124 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA AND
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...
At 124 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ferry Pass, moving east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, Pace, Goulding, Bagdad, Oriole Beach,
Pea Ridge, and Floridatown.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3045 8729 3062 8724 3060 8691 3033 8698
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 284DEG 9KT 3052 8718
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
16-WORSTERSpecial weather statement, Apr 30, 12:34 PM CST, 42 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
134 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
FLZ205-206-301930-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
134 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM CDT...
At 134 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shalimar, or near Eglin AFB, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso,
Ocean City, Lake Lorraine, Shalimar, and Cinco Bayou.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3040 8664 3060 8670 3071 8659 3068 8639
3046 8639 3046 8637 3039 8636 3040 8639
3037 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 312DEG 12KT 3050 8659
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
71-BUNKERLocal storm report, Apr 30, 12:59 PM CST, 17 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
159 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0133 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 N Navarre 30.44N 86.86W
04/30/2024 Santa Rosa FL Amateur Radio
Power line blown down in Holley. Verified by
Holley-Navarre Fire.
&&