Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front with warm temperatures ahead of it. Dry air at the low levels resulted in high based thunderstorms that resulted in gusty outflow winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front with warm temperatures ahead of it. Dry air at the low levels resulted in high based thunderstorms that resulted in gusty outflow winds. Stronger storms produced wind gusts in excess of 58 mph over Garfield County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 29, 4:45 PM MST, 8 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 545 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An approaching front will bring slightly cooler, more seasonal temperatures tomorrow and Friday, but a warm-up is in store for the weekend. - Chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain along the higher terrain of the Divide through early next week. - A large ridge is expected to build in mid next week, bringing the potential for a prolonged period of well above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 As expected, showers and thunderstorms have already kicked off over the higher terrain this afternoon. While southwesterly flow aloft is advecting some slightly drier midlevel air in, a pocket of 700-500 mb moisture is firmly in place over the terrain north of I-70 and along the Divide mountains. Instability is also maximized over this region, and the fairly robust convection already occurring just confirms that this is the hot spot for the day. Although, some light returns are appearing as far south as the southern San Juans this afternoon, so a light shower at the least will be possible anywhere along the Colorado Divide. Where convection is not occurring, skies remain clear with temperatures soaring, with afternoon highs expected to be close to 10 degrees above normal across the area. It is also rather breezy out there, with areas along and north of the I-70 corridor seeing wind gusts of 30-40 mph. This is thanks to the tightening pressure gradient aloft ahead of an approaching cold front. This front, associated with a Pacific trough working across the Northern Rockies, will move across eastern Utah and western Colorado this evening and into the overnight, and should be near or just east of the Divide by daybreak tomorrow. Aside from the gusty winds mentioned above, this front isn't expected to have a significant impact on the sensible weather for the Western Slope. It's fairly weak, and the term "cool front" may be more appropriate as temperatures will only drop about 10 degrees in its wake, and that is really only across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Highs there will be near normal tomorrow, but areas along and south of I- 70 will see a drop of maybe 5 degrees tomorrow compared to today. In addition, this front will have a very modest impact on shower or storm activity, due to several factors. First, the midlevel dry air working in will begin to descend, limiting the amount of moisture available to work will. Second, the front's passage will be after peak heating, and the modest dynamic lift will have no diurnal boost to help it along. Therefore, if anything, the front's approach may lead to the convection across the north lingering a bit longer into the night, or perhaps spawning one or two stronger storms, but we aren't expecting to see any robust nocturnal convection with this system. Conditions tomorrow and tomorrow night, in the wake of this front, will be dry, with sunny skies, calmer winds, and, as mentioned above, more seasonal temperatures. A stray shower or thunderstorm remains possible along the Divide, but increasing dry air will really limit coverage. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Zonal flow will be over the area with the polar jet displaced well to our north across the U.S./Canadian border and the subtropical jet to our south across the U.S./Mexico border. Temperatures will be near normal as a result on Friday with not much change from Thursday after this evening's frontal passage. Moisture will edge up along the eastern slopes of the Front Range due to a trailing boundary from the previous storm system, allowing for daily isolated thunderstorms each afternoon Friday through the weekend over the high terrain along the western Colorado Divide. Not much impact is expected aside from breezy afternoon winds with mostly to partly sunny skies. The flow aloft turns southwesterly on Saturday into Sunday as a shortwave trough approaches from the Pacific Northwest and tracks across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern High Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday. The end result is high temperatures warming once again this weekend to about 5 or so degrees above normal with breezy afternoon winds and isolated storms favoring the high terrain. Conditions should remain dry though for most areas according to latest model guidance. Heading into the coming first week of June, a large ridge of high pressure tries to build over the region as additional shortwaves move well north of the area along the polar jet, which will lay along the Canadian border. As this ridge builds, it will eventually try to push the polar jet further north into Canada. This should result in a mostly dry forecast to start off the month of June with temperatures warming into the 5 to 10 degrees above normal range by early next week. This means lower valleys of west-central Colorado, east-central and southeast Utah will be creeping into the low 90s with potential for mid and upper 90s in the southeast Utah desert valleys. The higher valleys seeing 80s and some mountain towns rising into the 70s with 60s at the higher elevations. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 539 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms will remain on the terrain until sunset. Terrain adjacent terminals could see VCTS and some gusty outflow winds, as well as small hail. A frontal passage will work its way across the UT/CO line this evening, with a shower/storm or two possible again on the terrain. Winds will shift northwest, then settle into terrain driven behavior late tonight. VFR conditions will prevail Thursday with afternoon winds generally out of the west at 15-25 mph at terminals. A few scattered mid level clouds are possible, but no ceilings are expected. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...BGB LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 356 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-301000- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops-Upper Gunnison River Valley- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 356 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Colorado, southwest Colorado, west central Colorado, east central Utah, northeast Utah and southeast Utah. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. However, isolated to low end scattered thunderstorms are expected over the mountains of the Continental Divide and the eastern Uinta Mountains this afternoon through early this evening. Stronger winds across the northern areas this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front will see gusts to 35 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Isolated to low end scattered thunderstorms are possible over the mountains of the Continental Divide and the eastern Uinta Mountains each afternoon/evening throughout the remainder of the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1254 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
COZ002-005-013-291930-
Flat Tops CO-Upper Yampa River Basin CO-Central Yampa River Basin CO-
1254 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL ROUTT AND
SOUTHEASTERN MOFFAT COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM MDT...
At 1254 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Craig, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Craig, Hayden, and Hamilton.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 40 in Colorado between mile markers 90 and 108.
Colorado 13 between mile markers 71 and 80, near mile marker 84, and
between mile markers 90 and 100.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 4022 10751 4035 10771 4065 10746 4042 10714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 227DEG 22KT 4035 10755
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MDAPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
350 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0341 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ESE Craig 40.50N 107.52W
05/29/2024 M48 MPH Moffat CO ASOS
ASOS station KCAG Craig-Moffat County
Airport.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
359 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0353 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ESE Craig 40.50N 107.52W
05/29/2024 M55 MPH Moffat CO ASOS
ASOS station KCAG Craig-Moffat County
Airport.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
403 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 ESE Hayden 40.47N 107.22W
05/29/2024 M46 MPH Routt CO AWOS
AWOS station KHDN Yampa Valley Airport.
&&The Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 67 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:55 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A peak wind gust of 60 MPH was measured by the automated weather station at the Rifle Garfield County Airport due to virga and strong outflow winds from a distant thunderstorm to the northwest.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, May 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1180608.