Drought in Arkansas, December 5 to 18, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1052 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Updated PoPs/WX and added areas/patchy fog to the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening) Issued at 914 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

The last of the measurable showers are easing out of east TX with
still widespread coverage east of I-49. This is a little faster
now as things will wrapping up shortly after midnight for our
eastern zones. Air temps remain chilly area wide with mid 40s
north and right around 60 on our southern tier of counties and
parishes. Most sites along I-20 are in the middle with low to mid
50s, and dew points within a degree or two. As the rain areas
continue to slide eastward, we can expect fog development to
continue well past midnight. Areas to our west are experiencing
such fog at a mile to a few with no expectation for dense fog. In
fact, the models are showing an increase in the the northerly
winds before daybreak and this will help to thin the fog early in
the day for a change. The HRRR depicts this likelihood very well
as the last of the showers to develop along the front which will
be moving southward and not east like most of this overrunning
activity has all day. Overall, the morning commute should be
mostly cloudy skies and cool temps with a northerly wind chill.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Upper level steering ahead of a cutoff low over northern Mexico and
the Desert Southwest will sustain an unsettled and deeply soggy
pattern to continue through the weekend and into early next week,
with near-areawide PoPs persisting through the early hours Monday.
The latest guidance looks to keep the ArkLaTex dry through the
daylight hours Friday, returning showers to our east Texas zones
shortly after sundown. These showers will overtake the region
overnight, continuing into the day Saturday while increasing in
coverage and confidence and persisting through the weekend and into
early next week. Some guidance has hinted at surface temperatures
being cold enough overnight Friday into Saturday to support brief,
isolated non-liquid precip in our elevated northern zones, but
confidence in timing is not yet high enough to allow these
conditions to prevail. Will monitor closely through the coming days.

As the aforementioned low begins to open up into a longwave trough
and push eastward, Monday looks to see gradual clearing from
northwest to southeast, through a renewed impulse of moisture will
maintain rainfall for our central Louisiana parishes to close out
this extended forecast period. The latest QPF values for the week
ahead depict totals ranging from an inch and a half northwest to
between 3 and 5 inches along and south of the I-20 corridor in Texas
and Louisiana. Temperatures will remain cool to close out this week
with a warm up late this weekend continuing into early next week
before another cold front returns us to seasonable temperatures by
the middle of the week.

SP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Areas of rain are generally moving out of terminals faster than
anticipated, but reduced VIS and CIGS will remain. Most sites will
remain in IFR VIS, with LIFR CIGS hanging around until 05/12z.
There is some indication that winds could decouple enough to allow
for denser fog development, resulting in lower VIS. However, I did
not have the confidence to introduce FG at this time. Otherwise,
things should mix out into VFR category by 05/15z.

/44/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 153 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  47  57  31  50 /  80   0   0   0
MLU  46  53  26  47 / 100   0   0   0
DEQ  35  52  24  48 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  41  55  27  49 /  30   0   0   0
ELD  39  51  23  47 /  80   0   0   0
TYR  47  57  33  52 /  30   0   0  10
GGG  46  58  30  50 /  50   0   0   0
LFK  52  60  34  53 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...44