Arizona, 2024Damaging Wind in Arizona, June 27, 2024
June 27, 2024 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone
A thunderstorm on the east side of Tucson produced a wind gust strong enough to uproot a large Palo Verde tree.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $1,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A thunderstorm on the east side of Tucson produced a wind gust strong enough to uproot a large Palo Verde tree.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 27, 2:03 PM MST, 5 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 2:03 PM MST, 5 hours 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
203 PM MST Thu Jun 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough
moisture for a daily chance of thunderstorms. Storm chances
increase over the weekend and early next week. Some storms will
generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Latest (2030Z) radar scans show thunderstorms
developing south of Coronado National Monument with another storm
struggling to form near Green Valley. CAPE values are up in the
1500-2000j/kg across the region. The higher values are along the
international border to the southeastern Cochise County, along
with better environment for thunderstorms. 12Z HREF paintball
plots highlights the international border this afternoon and into
the early evening. The biggest threats is gusty erratic winds and
locally intense rainfall. The PWATs are 1.56 inches from this
morning and will stay elevated through the rest of the weekend.
Tomorrow, HREF 3 hour probability matched mean shows a signal for
more substantial rainfall south of Nogales which could result in a
rise in the Santa Cruz River and Nogales Wash. Something to keep
an eye on tomorrow afternoon.
This weekend, the high pressure center will push off to the east
and be a better position to bring in southerly moisture flow.
Thunderstorm chances increases along with coverage starting
Saturday. Sunday appears to be the one of the more active days due
to weak disturbance moving around the high pressure center.
Next week, the high pressure will sit more to our east and thus opening
the moisture flow gate a little more. PWATs will be increasing
close to the 1.7-2 inch mark across most of Southeast Arizona.
The ensemble models show a signal for above normal rain amounts by
starting as early as Tuesday through at least Thursday. One way
to look at it, 33% of the 100 member ensemble show a wetter
solution with 24 hour rain totals 0.75 inches to some locally
areas close to 1.50 inches. The other two thirds show rainfall
amounts a little less than that but is worth to keep an eye out
over the next several days. At the moment, there is low confidence
since it is close to a week out but there is increase risk for
flooding impacts especially with the 4th of July events coming up.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 29/00Z.
FEW-SCT 5-10 kft and SCT-BKN 20-25 kft AGL thru the forecast
period. Isolated -TSRA thru 28/03Z with brief MFR conditions
possible near storms, mainly along the international border and in
the White Mountains. SFC winds generally 10 kts with the
occasional gust up to 20 kts in the afternoons, except for gusty
outflow winds from storms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will stick around through
the forecast period. This will give isolated thunderstorms and
showers today and tomorrow, mainly south and east of Tucson.
Moisture will increase more through the weekend and into the new
week to bring higher chances and coverage for thunderstorms and
showers each day. Strong erratic gusty winds of 40 mph or higher
can be expected with any storm development, along with locally
brief heavy rainfall. Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot
winds will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon with the
occasional gust of 20 mph. Min RHs will generally be around 20% in
the valleys and 30s in the mountains with good overnight
recoveries.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
KJS
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Thunderstorm Wind, Pima
- When
- June 27, 7:25 PM MST
- Where
- Pima County, 3.69 mi S of Sabino
- Measured
- 43 kt (49 mph) estimated gust
- Property damage
- $1,000
- Reported by
- NWS Employee
- Coordinates
- 32.247, -110.824
A thunderstorm on the east side of Tucson produced a wind gust strong enough to uproot a large Palo Verde tree. This was near Pantano Rd and Seneca St. Time estimate based on radar.
- Thunderstorm Wind
- Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Excessive Heat and Heat in Arizona, June 27 to 29, 20243 deaths · 3 events
- Lightning Strike in Texas, June 27, 20241 death · 1 event
- Tornadoes and Hail in North Dakota, June 27, 2024$252,000 · 1.5 in hail · 20 events
- Wildfire in Oklahoma, June 27 to 30, 2024$311,000 · 1 event
- Excessive Heat in Texas, June 27 to 29, 202436 events
- Tornado in Louisiana, June 27, 2024$50,000 · EF0 · 1 event
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Montana, June 27, 20241.75 in hail · 28 events
- Tornado and Hail in South Dakota, June 27, 2024EF0 · 24 events
- Damaging Winds in Montana, June 27, 202461 kt wind · 17 events
- Marine Thunderstorm Winds and Waterspout in South Atlantic Coastal Waters, June 27, 202454 kt wind · 12 events
- Damaging Winds in South Dakota, June 27, 202479 kt wind · 12 events
- Flash Flood and Debris Flow in Utah, June 27, 20241.5 in hail · 10 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1177647.