An area of thunderstorms produced heavy rainfall that resulted in flash flooding in the Hereford area.
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The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
An area of thunderstorms produced heavy rainfall that resulted in flash flooding in the Hereford area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 2:03 PM MST, 1 hour 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 203 PM MST Sat Jul 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend and into next week with the main threats being heavy rainfall with isolated strong wind gusts. Localized flash flooding will be possible. && .DISCUSSION... In the upper levels, a ridge axis was placed from southeastern Arizona into southern Colorado, while a jet streak was crossing south-central California through Utah. GOES-West water vapor imagery showed evidence of favorable convective placement this afternoon in southern and eastern areas of southeastern Arizona, with drier mid-level air and less synoptic support further northwest. This keeps Tucson on the edge of the better convective probabilities, with chances increasing south towards Nogales and east towards Safford, Douglas, and the New Mexico border. As of time of discussion, convection has been well under way across areas of Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee counties. Moderate instability, slow storm motions, and decently moist mid- levels will allow for the threat of heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding, especially as these slow moving thunderstorms sit over locations vulnerable to excessive rain. Though not the primary threat, enough mid-level dry air has moved in to allow for an isolated strong to severe wind gust under any thunderstorm. Coverage this evening will rapidly diminish with sunset. A few high-res models such as the HRRR and UofA WRF produce a batch of early Sunday morning showers, which seems reasonable as some instability aloft should remain and the fact hat showers/thunderstorms were observed early this morning. Tomorrow, the upper high shifts east a bit and mean flow over southeastern Arizona becomes southerly. This will bring another day of likely active monsoon weather, this time better oriented to potentially bring thunderstorms into the Tucson metro. Forecast chances are fairly widespread, maximized from Santa Cruz through Cochise counties where initiation should happen first. Heavy rainfall and isolated strong wind gusts remain the primary threats. Looking through next week, the upper level high should remain centered east of the region, keeping southerly flow over southeastern Arizona and daily chances for some sort of coverage of thunderstorms. With the above normal height anomalies, daily high temperatures should generally remain above normal. && .AVIATION... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through 28/02Z near KOLS-KDUG and up north through KSAD, with a slight chance of one near KTUS. Very heavy rainfall and isolated gusty outflow winds to 45 kts near any thunderstorm today. Otherwise winds generally under 12kts this afternoon and becoming light tonight. Chances for thunderstorms expected again Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with day to day variability on which areas will see the best chance of rainfall. Each day has the threat of heavy rain, localized flash flooding and strong gusty winds. Minimum relative humidities will be 20 to 30 percent in most lower elevation locations and 25 to 40 percent in mountain areas. Away from thunderstorms, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light winds overnight. As high pressure builds mid-week, high temperatures should rise a bit and minimum relative humidities should fall by a few percentage points. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Public...Edwards Aviation...Edwards Fire Weather....Edwards Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
216 PM MST Sat Jul 27 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0213 PM Rain 10 SE Sierra Vista 31.48N 110.19W
07/27/2024 M2.57 Inch Cochise AZ Trained Spotter
Trained spotter observed 2.57 inches in 50
minutes. Rain letting up at time of report.
&&
AJEThe Tucson radar (KEMX), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:28 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Two to three inches of rain fell in the Hereford area resulting in Flash Flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1190907.