Cold in Arizona, December 26, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
155 PM MST Wed Dec 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy today with near to slightly above normal
temperatures. Very slight chances for showers and snow showers in
the White Mountains. The rest of the week, dry with a warming
trend into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A passing weather disturbance will continue to bring
breezy conditions across Southeast Arizona. Cochise County has
experienced the strongest winds so far with Pioneer Airfield
gusting to 44 mph and Douglas Airport 37 mph. Breezes will calm
down to mainly terrain driven around sun down. Temperatures will
be near to slight above normal today. Areas in Cochise County will
be near critical fire weather conditions, see Fire Weather
Discussion for more details.

Tomorrow, a shortwave trough will pass over the region to bring a
slightly cooler day but overall temperatures will still be
slightly above normal. Slight chances for snow showers in the
White Mountains tomorrow afternoon and into the evening.

Ahead, a broad ridge will build over the region by the weekend.
Ensemble models are in good agreement of the ridge building with
the impacts of warming temperatures. Temperatures are expected to
be 6 to 15 degrees above normal by Sunday. This December is
on track to be one of the hottest December months.

By early next week, there is some uncertainty on how the ridge
will play out for the first half of the new week. Out of three
ensemble models, the GEFS members show a sharp shortwave trough
riding down the ridge axis to bring small cool down for the
region. Unlike the other two ensemble models, they show a weaker
and not as southward projection of the shortwave. The temperature
spread of the 25-75th percentiles for Tucson is 8 degrees. In
other words, it could be cool as 68F or warm as 77F by next
Thursday. Still, the pattern of above normal temperatures will
continue for the new year. And of course, dry.

&&

.AVIATION...valid through 27/00Z.
FEW to SCT clouds at or around 10K to 14K feet AGL with another
layer at 20k to 25k feet AGL through 26/02. A brief SKC until
26/10 with high SCT to BKN clouds at 25K feet AGL. Mid to low
SCT-BKN clouds at 15K feet AGL moving through by 26/20Z until the
end of the forecast period. SFC westerly winds at 10-15 kts with
gusts up to 25-30kts until 26/02Z.KALK to KDUG line and north can
experience the stronger gusts this afternoon. Overnight winds will
be generally less than 10 kts and terrain driven. By 26/18Z, SFC
winds westerly to northwesterly at 12 kts or less through the end
of the forecast period. Slight chances (less 20 percent) for snow
showers in the White Mountains between 26/18Z and 27/06Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather disturbance is moving through the region
today to bring breezy conditions this afternoon. Winds will peak
20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. The strongest winds will be
in Cochise County and on the higher terrain. The Hot-Dry-Windy
Index has a strong signal for values above the 95th percentile and
mainly focused on Cochise County. This is mainly driven by the
breezy winds and the above normal temperatures. Relative
humidities will be 20 to 25 percent in the lower locations and 30
to 40 percent in the higher locations. Some locals within Cochise
County may briefly hit near critical conditions this afternoon.

The rest of the week, winds will return to generally 15 mph or
less with dry conditions and above normal temperatures by the
weekend. There is another weather disturbance passing tomorrow to
bring mainly slight cooler temperatures and chances for snow
showers in the White Mountains. Relative humidities will be around
15 to 20 percent for the lower elevations and 20 to 25 percent
for the higher locations.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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