Cold in Arizona, December 15 to 18, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
156 PM MST Sat Dec 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS... Dry weather with above normal temperatures will persist
through next week.

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.DISCUSSION... It will be a generally quiet pattern across all of
Southeast Arizona this week that will result in dry conditions
and above normal temperatures the next 7 days. High clouds are
currently moving in from the west and will stick around for the
rest of today. High temperatures will continue to rise over the
next several days with increasing mid-level height anomolies. A
shallow and quick shortwave trough will move through Sunday night
into Monday morning decreasing the overnight low temperature from
Saturday morning by a few degrees. Current forecast high
temperature for Monday, December 15 in Tucson would tie for the
record high on that day. See Climate section below for more
details.

Wednesday morning through Thursday morning winds
will increase in southeastern Cochise county from the east at 15
to 20 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH. There is some uncertainty how
strong this wind will be. It will all depend on how strong a
shortwave trough is passing through the Texas Panhandle. In all,
expect afternoon temperatures across southeastern Arizona to be in
the mid to upper 70s with some day-to-day fluctuations (8-12
degrees above climatological normal) throughout the work week.

Ensemble models continue to suggest a more amplified ridge to
develop along the West Coast the second half of week next week.
The Climate Prediction Center 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks
both suggest temperatures will likely (60 to 80% chance) be above
normal with precipitation likely (40 to 60% chance) below normal.

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.AVIATION...valid through 16/00Z.
Skies becoming SCT-BKN with cirrus AOA 25k ft this afternoon,
becoming FEW-SCT after 15/09Z. Winds light and terrain driven under
8 kts through the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

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.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with above normal temperatures
through next week. Minimum relative humidity values 10 to 15
percent in the valleys through the forecast period, with 15 to 20
percent expected in the higher terrain. 20-foot winds will be
breezy Wednesday with east winds 15-20 mph gusting to 30-35 mph,
especially in eastern exposed areas of Cochise and Graham counties.
Otherwise, winds mainly be less than 15 mph through the forecast
period.

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.CLIMATE...

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS

DATE                         Dec 14           Dec 15           Dec 16
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT        74  80/2010      75  84/2016      79  79/1980
AJO                        73  82/2010      71  81/2016      73  83/2016
KITT PEAK                  58  72/2010      59  67/2010      61  70/1980
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS          74  79/1998      75  84/2016      75  84/1980
PICACHO PEAK               68  78/2010      68  79/2016      70  79/1998
SAFFORD AG STATION         68  76/1995      70  75/1950      70  72/1950
SIERRA VISTA FD            70  72/2010      72  81/2016      71  75/2010
TOMBSTONE                  69  81/1950      71  80/1950      71  83/1950
WILLCOX                    66  78/1915      70  77/2010      68  79/2016

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.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
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Public...Malarkey
Aviation and Fire Weather...Edwards

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