Hail and Damaging Wind in Arizona, August 19, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
152 PM MST Mon Aug 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS....There will be a daily chance of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms through the week across
southeast Arizona. The thunderstorms will be accompanied by the
typical monsoon threats of strong wind gusts, localized heavy
rainfall and flash flooding, and blowing dust. High temperatures
will be several degrees above average tomorrow before falling a
few degrees around mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Moisture remains sufficient for thunderstorms today
with 1 inch near the border with New Mexico to 1.5 inches in
deserts west of Tucson. Decent shear and convective potential will
combine for some stronger storms today with vigorous outflows.
Most favored locations for sustained propagation along outflows
will be mainly south of Tucson, but metro area action mid to late
afternoon is possible.

Our flow will become more southeasterly tomorrow as the inverted
trough over Chihuahua pushes into southern and central Sonora.
This will also likely draw in some drier air in New Mexico for a
short time, with far eastern areas struggling to maintain enough
moisture for storms. Meanwhile temperatures will climb several
degrees, but expected to stay below excessive heat levels.

By Wednesday the high center should be reconsolidated due east
across western Texas and southeast New Mexico. That will combine
with an early transition season style trough digging down the west
coast to bring a strong southerly flow to the area. Wednesday and
Wednesday into Wednesday night or Thursday should be a decent
storm period with strongest storms Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening.

A drier southwesterly flow will likely knock the monsoon back a
bit later in the week into next weekend. Meanwhile tropical
development in a much more active eastern Pacific should remain a
little too far south to be engaged by any troughiness...for now.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 6k-9k ft AGL and BKN clouds AOA 15k ft AGL, along
with ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA thru 20/05Z. Slowly clearing skies between
20/05Z and 20/18Z. Aft 20/18Z, FEW-SCT clouds (locally BKN) at 6k-9k
ft AGL and ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA mainly west of KALK to KE77 line thru
the end of the forecast period. MVFR conditions near TSRA, with VSBY
restrictions, wind gusts to 45+ kts, heavy rain and mountain
obscurations. Outside of thunderstorm wind gusts, wind speeds will
be 12 kts or less, favoring a NWLY direction through the early
evening hours tonight and then SWLY thru NWLY direction Tuesday
afternoon. SFC wind variable in direction at other times. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There will be a daily chance of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms across southeast Arizona through
Thursday, with a significant drying trend Friday through the
weekend. High temperatures will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal
through Tuesday, lowering to 1 to 4 degrees above normal Wednesday
into the weekend. Min RH values will be in the 20-30 percent range
in most valleys locations this week (except lowering to near 15
percent in eastern Cochise and the upper Gila River valley through
Tuesday). Min RH values are expected to lower by late this weekend
as the drier overspreads the area. Outside of any thunderstorm
outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less, with
afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light winds
overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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