Strong thunderstorms produced flash flooding in Nogales.
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The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Strong thunderstorms produced flash flooding in Nogales.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 1:35 PM MST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 135 PM MST Thu Aug 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for thunderstorms continue through next week, with more limited coverage over the weekend. Some storms will generate heavy rain and strong gusty winds. Temperatures will increase over the weekend, peaking Sunday, subtly trending down a few degrees early to middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Ridge of high pressure is currently centered across northern New Mexico, allowing for weak southeasterly flow to remain over southeastern AZ today and tomorrow. With moisture remaining in place today and tomorrow, expect typical daily scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon-evenings. HREF 24 hr probabilities for 1" or more both today and tomorrow only show 30-50%, so a few heavy rain producers may cause flooding issues, especially if they fall over already saturated grounds from yesterdays storms. The wind threat today and tomorrow looks unimpressive, with the HREF only showing 20-30% probabilities of getting 45 mph with any storms. This is also supported by DCAPE values of 800-1200 J/kg. Timing of showers and storms developing today looks like initiating around 1-2pm along the higher terrain, with Tucson potentially seeing some isolated to scattered activity between 7-11pm this evening. Tomorrow, storms will begin to initiate around 1-2pm along the higher terrain, moving from southeast to northwest across much of southeast AZ. As the ridge center shifts more toward the Four Corners region over the weekend, it will amplify a bit, which will increase temperatures over the weekend and bring in drier air aloft. The added drier air will help suppress storms over the weekend. Even so, enough moisture will still be in the mid levels, so isolated showers and thunderstorms will still be possible, mainly along the higher terrain where enough lift will be able to overcome the inhibition. By Monday, the ridge will weak enough to drop temperatures a bit and open the door for easterly waves to influence southeastern AZ. Both the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles show an easterly wave moving into the region sometime Monday night-Tuesday, likely leading to increased activity Tuesday and/or Wednesday depending on timing of the easterly wave. Looking beyond mid week, cluster analysis indicates the Four Corners ridge may get shifted/suppressed next weekend with an upper trough digging into the PacNW. With that shift of the ridge to the east, the flow would return to becoming east-southeasterly, potentially bringing in drier air from the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers expected today. Thunderstorm chances will trend downward slightly this weekend and into the start of the new week. There will be a slight chance (20%- 30%) each afternoon with higher chances over the mountains. Dryer air will move into the region this weekend that will keep min RHs in the upper teens to lower twenties in the lower locations and thirties in the higher elevations. Min RHs will trend upward by next week due to thunderstorm influences. Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers expected today. Thunderstorm chances will trend downward slightly this weekend and into the start of the new week. There will be a slight chance (20%- 30%) each afternoon with higher chances over the mountains. Dryer air will move into the region this weekend that will keep min RHs in the upper teens to lower twenties in the lower locations and thirties in the higher elevations. Min RHs will trend upward by next week due to thunderstorm influences. Outside of thunderstorm winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and light winds overnight. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && DISCUSSION...Peters AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Strongman Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 68 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:23 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Roads in Nogales including Industrial Park Drive closed due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1202212.