Winter Storm in Alaska, February 9, 2024

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
513 AM AKST Fri Feb 9 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Friday night / A weather front will be
moving east across the gulf to the panhandle and then into through
Friday. Precipitation is spreading to the panhandle coast per the
Biorka radar, and Yakutat starting reporting snow about 3 am.

The incoming front has Gale to Storm force winds ( see Marine
section) ahead of the front, and had prompted and advisory and
watch for the North half of the Panhandle to be issue. In
reviewing the latest informing decisions were made on the watches
and current advisories.

The potential warm up and the timing of when it may do so still is
the fly in the ointment for the forecast. Now for changes to
headline Issues. The Yakutat area's Advisory got a bump up to a
warning due to snow accumulations through the afternoon. The
advisory for Elfin Cove/Pelican area, the Gustavus area, and
Hoonah/Tenakee Springs the watch was changed to and advisory for
snow amounts, The Pelican area with around 5 inches was one of the
more favored locations, and if anything this area almost got a
warning. Skagway's watch I made an advisory although this one may
be touch and go to verify. The watch that was out for Haines and
Juneau, got upgraded to warning levels. For Haines it may be just
the heaviest snowfall for a 12 hour period in the middle that
verifies the warning. Juneau again could be the focal point for
the best snowfall accumulations with the potential for 6 inches to
a foot of snow.

Did not make much in way of change to Temperature forecast. Winds
for the western communities could see the gustiness from Sitka
south to Hydaburg through the afternoon so gusts approaching 40
mph.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday into Next Week/...A quick moving wave will
keep the rain and snow in the forecast for Sunday. Snow amounts
are looking pretty light though, maybe 1-3 inches on Sunday,
lesser amounts Sunday night and Monday.

After Sunday, 500mb ridge builds with surface high in the Yukon
next week, giving the area a few days of quiet weather. The upper
level ridge and surface high show increased likelihood of
sticking around through the week.

This pattern will give the panhandle outflow winds and lowered
PoPs. Early evidence shows mostly sunny to partly clouds skies
returning to the area persisting into the mid to late week
period. However, with all the extra moisture at the surface, there
is concern for a low cloud deck that would keep the area under
cloudy to mostly cloudy skies early on. So stay tuned in for the
less- active- weather updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions remain for significant portions of the
panhandle at the time of writing, but these conditions are
expected to deteriorate through the morning. MVFR and IFR
conditions are expected throughout the day today with an
approaching front bringing rain and snow to the panhandle. CIGs
and VIS are expected to remain low through the day before
gradually improving during the evening to overnight hours. Some
places could see periods of LIFR conditions with the heavier snow
that moves in during the mid morning to late evening today. With
the approaching front, LLWS and Turbulence is expected ahead and
along the front as it moves through. By the latter half of the TAF
period, most places should see LLWS and turbulence become less of
an issue.

&&

.MARINE...A gale to storm force front extending from a storm
force low in the western gulf will impact the panhandle Friday.
Gale force winds will spread across the NE gulf early Friday
morning into Friday. South of Cape Suckling, storm force winds of
50 kts are expected as the front compresses against the coast
through Friday morning. For the NE gulf coast, gale force winds
will persist into Friday afternoon before beginning to diminish as
the front continues to push inland. Small craft conditions will
then develop over the inner channels as winds shift southerly
behind the front Friday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ317.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon AKST Saturday
     for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM AKST
     Saturday for AKZ319-325.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM AKST this
     evening for AKZ320>322.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ641-642-644-651-652-661>664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-035-036-053-643.

&&

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...SF

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