A strong frontal system lifting into Southcentral from the Alaska Gulf produced mainly higher elevation snow across parts of the Prince William Sound and Kenai Peninsula regions between mainly 2/8 and 2/9. Warm temperatures moving in ahead of the front resulted in mostly rain falling near sea level for this event while strong cross-barrier flow kept more Southcentral interior locations fairly dry.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A strong frontal system lifting into Southcentral from the Alaska Gulf produced mainly higher elevation snow across parts of the Prince William Sound and Kenai Peninsula regions between mainly 2/8 and 2/9. Warm temperatures moving in ahead of the front resulted in mostly rain falling near sea level for this event while strong cross-barrier flow kept more Southcentral interior locations fairly dry.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 7, 4:57 AM AKST, 10 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 457 AM AKST Wed Feb 7 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today through Friday night)... A long-wave trough is centered over the Bering Sea, with short- waves ejecting out of the trough and across the Gulf and Southcentral. One short-wave is lifting northward across Southcentral early this morning. Radar imagery shows a narrow band of snow marching inland ahead of the trough. This will bring a dusting to a inch of snow, with the best chance of accumulation in the Susitna Valley due to upslope flow. Two more short-waves along the Alaska Peninsula this morning will consolidate into a single marginally stronger short-wave late this afternoon and evening. This will lead to development of a surface low in the Gulf, but it will remain offshore. The southern end of the short-wave will drive eastward across the Gulf, leaving a much weaker trough to pass through Southcentral late tonight through Thursday. Expect a brief period of rain for Kodiak Island Wednesday and some snow pushing onshore of the Kenai Peninsula Wednesday night into Thursday. It's looking like the rest of Southcentral will likely remain dry with this weak trough. A much stronger storm system is on track to affect the region Thursday night through Friday night. Models have trended eastward with the low track over the past 24 hours, now tracking the low to near Kodiak Island Friday before then moving into Bristol Bay. The leading frontal system cross the Gulf Thursday night and moving onshore of Southcentral Friday looks a bit stronger, while the overall airmass behind the warm occlusion looks warmer. Expect moderate to heavy precipitation for Kodiak Island and Prince William Sound/Eastern Kenai Peninsula. Kodiak will see mainly rain while coastal Southcentral will experience a transition from snow to rain as warmer air arrives on Friday. There is some threat for low visibilities along the Seward Highway corridor on the eastern Kenai Peninsula as snow and wind arrive Thursday night. However, temperatures at and near sea level will be right around the freezing mark (or possibly even a bit above), so it looks marginal. The transition to rain will limit snow accumulation, with the best chance for heavier snow accumulation in Turnagain Pass. Meanwhile, strong east to southeast low-level flow will initially lead to significant downslope drying for the western Kenai up to Anchorage and the Mat-Su. As the low heads inland across Southwest Alaska Friday night, flow over Southcentral will shift to southerly and a trailing upper level short-wave will help spread precipitation inland. While colder air will move in aloft, some of the remnants of the warmer air combined with southerly surface winds pushing onshore could be just enough to produce a mix of rain/snow or possibly even pockets of freezing rain as precipitation first arrives. This seems most likely from Anchorage and the Mat Valley south to the western Kenai Peninsula. If this does occur, it should be short-lived as the air aloft looks cold enough to change precipitation back to all snow. Those places that do observe the southerly winds will likely see temperatures rise to freezing or above, which will be the warmest temperatures since January 14th. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Broad cyclonic (counterclockwise) flow remains in place across the entirety of the Bering this morning under the influence of a 960 mb vertically stacked low, roughly 225 northwest of the Pribilof Islands. Associated winds around the low remain at small craft to gale speeds. The low lifts north and immediately west of Saint Matthew Island through tomorrow morning. For this morning, an occluded front has moved onshore of the Southwest Alaska coast and is now also pushing into the Alaska Peninsula further to the south. The front will maintain scattered light snow showers in vicinity of the front before tapering off later this evening into the overnight hours. In the short term, gusty conditions along the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak Island are combining with light snow to reduce visibility down to one half mile. Despite winds gusting at or above 40 mph, warm temperatures just below freezing will limit the threat of blowing snow. Instead, periodic reduced visibility will be limited to the presence of light scattered snow showers, which will gradually taper off for most areas later this afternoon and evening. The next front lifts out of the North Pacific and over the Alaska Peninsula on Thursday. Easterly gales with storm force gusts are forecast on the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula, with gales spilling into the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula through Thursday afternoon. Warm temperatures on the Pacific side, due to continued southerly flow, will see above freezing temperatures and subsequent precipitation into King Cove and Sand Point, fall largely as rain, with a mix of rain and snow on the Bering side. A strong pressure gradient then forms over Greater Bristol Bay region Thursday night into Friday morning, which will allow for enhanced easterly winds to spread from the Kamishak Gap and across Iliamna, New Stuyahok, and Koliganek. Gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible, with 30 to 40 mph gusts reaching Togiak and Dillingham. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... Large scale features persistent through the forecast period include upper level ridging over northwestern Canada and the eastern interior of Alaska, with an area of low pressure over the Bering Sea and the western coast of Alaska. Saturday morning a surface low over the Kuskokwim River Delta continues on a northbound track and weakens. Sunday afternoon into Monday morning a North Pacific low crosses the Alaska Peninsula into the Bering Sea with storm force winds. Several shortwave features pass over Kodiak and the western Gulf through Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION... PANC...Potential snow over the next few hours will briefly lower cloud decks and visibility, but will quickly rebound above VFR thresholds after the showers pass. Conditions will improve throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes, increasing cloud decks above 10000 feet by the afternoon hours. Light winds will also persist through the duration of the TAF period. &&
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
The Turnagain Pass SNOTEL recorded an increase of 9 inches of snow depth on 2/9, ending at 9 PM AKST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1165480.