A 988 mb low that moved north north through the Chukchi Sea brought blizzard conditions to the western Arctic Coast on February 14th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.
A 988 mb low that moved north north through the Chukchi Sea brought blizzard conditions to the western Arctic Coast on February 14th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 4:07 AM AKST, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
407 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A mix of weather expected across northern Alaska through the end
of the week. Above normal temperatures continue for much of the
mainland as southerly flow dominates thanks to a strong ridge in
place. Strong southerly chinook winds are ongoing in the Alaska
Range and will continue into Friday morning. A front across the
Western Interior this morning will slowly wander west over the
next several days, maintaining precip chances. Mixed precip this
morning across the Western Interior slowly changes over to snow
by this afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 563 dam (decameter) closed high is centered
near Yakutat this morning will remain the main player for the next
several days. The high will lift north and east and strengthen to
566 dam by Friday morning as the center moves to be near Teslin
in the Yukon. The high continues eastward through the weekend.
Broad upper level troughing persists across eastern Russia and the
Bering Sea through the week. Within the trough are a number of
shortwaves that will lift north across the Bering and through the
Bering Strait. This morning, the northernmost shortwave is
situated between Wrangel Island the Point Hope, while a second
shortwave stretches from the Gulf of Anadyr south and east between
St Lawrence Island and St Matthew Island to the Y-K Delta.
Another shortwave stretches across the northern Kamchatka
Peninsula southeast into the western Bering Sea. These shortwaves
will track north and east through through Thursday and weaken. Yet
another shortwave will push into the central Bering Sea by Friday
morning and then slide east northeast through Saturday to the
West Coast. A stronger closed low will push into the western
Bering Sea by Saturday morning.
At the surface, a 990 mb low is 100 NM northwest of Cape Lisburne
with a front stretching east to Mackenzie Bay. A second front
stretches south east from the low across Kotzbue Sound to Anvik.
The low northwest of Cape Lisburne will weaken to 998 mb as it
moves northeast to be 200 NM north of Wainwright this afternoon,
continuing northeast into the high Arctic Thursday and Friday. As
this low lifts northeast, it will drag the front away from the
coast. The second front will push eastward and stretch from the
low to Wainwright to Huslia to Holy Cross to Aniak by this
afternoon. The front will weaken and slowly wander west across the
Western Interior through the next several days. Weak high
pressure builds in from the Chukotsk Peninsula south to the
central Bering Sea by Thursday afternoon. A 990 mb low moves north
of the Alaska Peninsula Friday morning and weakening to be a 1000
mb low 75 NM northwest of Nunivak Island by Friday evening,
continuing to weaken as it moves northwest to be near St Lawrence
Island Saturday afternoon.
Models...
The 14/00Z models initialized well against the 00Z RAOBS and the
00Z and 06Z surface obs. Models are in good agreement with the
major features and the overall pattern as ridging aloft remains
the dominant player. Models continue to struggle with precip and
winds as has been the case the past few days. To combat the
differences in guidance and what has been observed, we opted to go
for a general blend for precip and temperatures, and leaned
towards the NAM and the Canadian for the winds, as they capture
the gales expected over the Arctic waters with the low that moves
northeast, and the stronger downsloping winds that are occurring
across the Interior.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front along the coast will push offshore today as the parent low
moves northeast. This will bring strong southwesterly winds to
areas west of Utqiagvik this morning, as well as the potential
for snow, and blowing snow. The strongest winds are expected
between Cape Lisburne and Point Lay where a Winter Storm Warning
remains in effect for potential blizzard conditions. In the Brooks
Range, strong southerly winds have developed and are expected to
continue, especially in the passes. The warm temperatures will
limit the amount of blowing snow, but blowing snow will remain
possible. Temperatures well above normal again today as southerly
flow dominates. High temperatures largely above zero today with
many locations in the mid 20s to around freezing. Temperatures
cool Thursday and Friday as winds turn onshore.
West Coast and Western Interior...
Unsettled weather conditions are expected through the week as a
series of shortwaves move across the region. A front remains
stretched across the Western Interior through the next several
days, slowly wandering west. West of the front, temperatures have
dropped below freezing, while east of the front temperatures
remain warm. This leads to an area of mixed precipitation
continuing (rain, snow, and freezing rain) this morning from the
Lower Koyukuk Valley to the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Extended the
Winter Storm Warnings through this afternoon for the Lower and
Middle Yukon Valleys and added a Winter Weather Advisory for the
Upper Kuskokwim Valley for rain and mixed precip this morning.
Expect for the mixed precip to turn over to snow this morning
across the West Coast and Western Interior. Since the front makes
little movement through early Friday, added in a Winter Storm
Warning for the lower Yukon River for heavy snow. Expect 7 to 10
inches of snow between this afternoon and early Friday morning,
primarily for Marshall and Russian Mission. Elsewhere along the
West Coast and Western Interior, expect 3 to 6 inches of snow
through Friday morning. Another round of mixed precip is possible
on Friday primarily south of Unalakleet to the Y-K Delta as
temperatures warm back into the lower to mid 30s. This will have
to be monitored as additional WWAs may be needed.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Warm, dry, and windy (in passes) sums up the forecast for much of
the Interior into the weekend. Strong southerly chinook flow
(with gusts to 80 mph possible) continues across the Alaska Range
through at least Friday morning before diminishing during the day
Friday. In addition to the southerly chinook winds will be the
Tanana Valley Jet, bringing gusty south to southeasterly winds to
Delta Junction. Gusty southwest winds with gusts to 50 mph are
occurring near Eagle Summit this morning and are expected to
diminish by this afternoon. Issued a Wind Advisory for zone 834 to
account for this. Well above normal temperatures continue through
the next several days courtesy of the strong downsloping. No
precip is anticipated.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Building upper ridge over much of the state and NW Canada is
expected to persist into next weekend. Longer range models and
ensembles continue to indicate the ridge becoming more NW-SE
oriented by late week possibly shifting the storm track further
west, bringing drier conditions to the Western Interior.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801-813-814-819-828>830.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ826.
Wind Advisory for AKZ834.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ852.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ813-859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Gale Warning for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 237 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024 AKZ809-150000- Central Brooks Range- Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, and the Dalton Highway from MP 232 to MP 322 237 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024 ...Strong winds, blowing and drifting snow along Dalton Hwy... Strong southerly winds will continue across the Brooks Range today with gusts upwards of 50 mph through mountain passes and along the Dalton Hwy. Blowing and drifting snow may result in reduced visibility at times creating hazardous travel conditions.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Blizzard conditions developed at Point Lay the morning of the 14th and continued through early afternoon. Winds as high as 50 mph also occurred during this event.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1161630.