An atmospheric river pumped heavy rain into the western Susitna Valley causing flooding across the Yentna and Skwenta Basins. This rainfall led to rapid river rises, and their tributaries, flooding numerous cabins and lodges across the region.
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The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
An atmospheric river pumped heavy rain into the western Susitna Valley causing flooding across the Yentna and Skwenta Basins. This rainfall led to rapid river rises, and their tributaries, flooding numerous cabins and lodges across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 3:44 AM AKST, 11 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 444 AM AKDT Wed Aug 7 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)... Wet weather continues for much of southcentral Alaska. Satellite and radar imagery shows the front and associated atmospheric river continuing to bring moderate to heavy rainfall to much of the area. Over the past 24-36 hours, several inches of rainfall has fallen across the southeast Kenai Peninsula, with many sites in the remote Kenai Mountains recording 4 to nearly 8 inches of rainfall. Seward has received nearly 4 inches of rainfall, with Seldovia recording about 2.5 inches. As we progress through the day, rain will continue for much of the same areas, though picking up in intensity for Anchorage and the Mat- Su Valley late this afternoon and evening. The primary flood concerns remain for the eastern Kenai Peninsula, where 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall is expected in locations such as Seward and also the Portage-Whittier area. 1 to 2 inches in addition to what's already fallen for Anchorage and the Mat-Su may result in isolated urban and small stream flooding, but widespread and significant issues are not anticipated. The front and main moisture axis finally begin to push eastward early Wednesday night, shutting off the gap winds, with moderate to locally heavy precipitation moving into the eastern Prince William Sound region. Areas of light to moderate rain will continue across the western Kenai, Anchorage, and Mat-Su through Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave rotating around the base of the main longwave trough axis and an associated weak triple point surface low entering the Gulf will drive another around of precipitation into Southcentral. Widespread light to moderate rain is expected again across the Kenai Peninsula through the Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valley, and now also portions of the Copper River Basin, with the heaviest precipitation remaining focused near the coast near the Prince William Sound. When all is said and done, additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible for Seward and much of the Prince William Sound coast through Thursday. The main trough axis finally pushes eastward through Southcentral on Friday, ending the steadier and heavier precipitation, but unsettled conditions and areas of showers will remain across the area. -Brown/ME && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Longwave troughing stretches south across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula, bringing continued widespread rain across the region today. Multiple shortwaves rounding the rough will lift into Southwest which will extend chance for rain showers through Thursday night. A high pressure ridge continues eastward across the Western Aleutians and Bering Sea. Areas of fog are likely under the ridge until a trough extending from a Kamchatka low brings increased winds and rain to the Aleutian Islands Thursday, and to the Alaskan mainland Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... The long term begins on Saturday with a large upper-level low embedded within a trough over the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Its surface low spreads across the entire Bering while pushing its front over the central/eastern Aleutians and into Southwest AK. This wind-wrapped system is expected to bring widespread rain to much of the aforementioned regions. The upper trough will pivot across the rest of Mainland AK through Tuesday, spreading rain eastward across the rest of the state. The EC/GFS solutions are still in favor of high pressure building over the Bering and Aleutians at the end of the weekend and into the start of the next week. However, the latest Canadian runs look to form a transient shortwave ridge before bringing a strong upper low and trough quickly across the Aleutians. The EC/GFS eventually form an upper trough much later in time. Overall, expect wetter conditions for Southwest and Southcentral AK and generally drier conditions across the Bering and Aleutians, following the trough. -AF && .AVIATION... PANC...An occluded front moving through the Gulf will bring continued rain showers overnight into early tomorrow morning. This afternoon and evening, gusty easterly winds ranging from 15 to 20 knots are likely. As waves of moisture move over the airport, lowering ceiling heights and visibility will cause a VFR to MVFR conditions. A brief period of dry conditions is likely tomorrow morning. However, a short wave is likely to bring another round of rain and easterly winds to Anchorage tomorrow afternoon/early evening and southerly winds and lingering showers in the late evening. -DJ &&
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain from an atmospheric river led to rapid rises on the Yentna and Skwenta Rivers in the western portion of the Susitna Borough. Rivers inundated cabins all along the rivers with water widespread flooding of the campgrounds, airstrips and access to structures.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1208888.