Drought in Alabama, December 1 to 16, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
825 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

Made a few tweaks to hourly temperatures as these have fallen
rather quickly into the upper 30s, especially in our Florida
counties away from the coast. 18Z guidance appears on track with
going lows and did not make any appreciable changes there. Freeze
warning remains in effect for all counties away from the immediate
coast with a frost advisory at the coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

The surface high over western Alabama becomes more diffuse as the
night wears on, but should hold on long enough to keep winds
relatively calm most of the night. Meanwhile, a few high clouds
continue to stream from west to east across the Deep South this
afternoon as they ride along the H25 jet. This jet should sag south
of our region tonight, taking the high clouds with it. All that to
say tonight is a prime candidate for radiational cooling across much
of the region. For that reason, decided to side more with CONSMOS
than the NBM, which drops us into the upper 20s to near 30 across
the vast majority of our area. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight
across the entire region away from the immediate coast. A Frost
Advisory was issued for our coastal communities tonight as lows dip
into the middle 30s and relative humidity values tick up.

High pressure remains in control of our weather Sunday as
temperatures climb into the lower to middle 60s, or a few degrees
below normal for the first day of December.

&&

.SHORT TERM / LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

The focus Monday through Wednesday mornings will be the continued
cold weather in the Tri-State Region. The next chance for precip
then presents itself on Thursday into the following weekend.

Dry, deep-layer northwest flow aloft as high pressure slides from
the Upper Plains states on Monday to the Southeast on Wednesday.
This will maintain the Continental polar (cP) air mass. Based on the
surface pressure gradient, longwave "radiational" cooling will not
be maximized until Wednesday morning, with otherwise clear skies.

As we have been mentioning, if the Freeze Warning for Sunday morning
Dec 1st verifies (temperatures between 26 and 32 degrees for at
least two hours), subsequent Freeze Warnings will be suspended until
March 15th, with the exception of temperatures 25 degrees or lower
("Hard Freeze"). Regardless, Frost Advisories are suspended for the
season after the first widespread freeze is observed.

Lows on Monday in the low to mid-30s, then upper 20s to lower 30s
Tuesday morning; Cannot rule out slightly colder temps each morning
in more sheltered locations (mid to upper 20s). The coldest morning
is expected to be Wednesday with high pressure overhead. Current
forecast is widespread mid to upper 20s away from the urban centers
and away from the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, highs will be in the 50s
with some lower 60s closer to the Gulf coast.

As the high slides east of the region midweek, a Maritime tropical
(mT) air mass begins to advect into the region on Thursday. With
that increase in moisture as overrunning gets underway ahead of a
northward advancing warm front, showers are in the forecast in the
western half of the Tri-State region. Predictability is low with
greater uncertainty than normal in the Fri-Saturday period.
Forecast will be dependent on how a closed low evolves near the
Four-Corners region, and the interaction of southern and northern
stream energy, with large differences in the models including
run to run consistency.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period for all
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

With the cessation of advisory-level conditions on Saturday,
fairly tranquil boating conditions on Sunday into the middle
of next week. High pressure moves into the waters with north
or northeast winds then clocking around to the southwest mid-
week as high pressure moves east of the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

Dry and cold conditions continue through the weekend into early next
week. Fair to good dispersions are expected each afternoon .
Relative humidity values are forecast to drop to between 20 to 30
percent the next couple of afternoons. Transport winds should remain
relatively light out of the north to northwest.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

Portions of the region remain abnormally dry or in drought.
The next chance of precipitation is not until Thursday and
Friday. There are currently no flooding concerns over the
next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   33  62  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   37  63  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        31  61  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        27  60  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      30  62  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    27  65  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  40  64  38  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Sunday for FLZ007>019-
     026>029-034.

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Sunday for FLZ108-112-
     114-115-118-127-128-134.

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST Sunday for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST Sunday for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...LF