Heat in Alabama, August 1, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 829 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

The weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary that has been draped
just to our northeast the last 24 hours has edged a bit further
west overnight into this morning. A weak disturbance moving
southeast along it is currently producing clusters of showers and
thunderstorms along it to the NE of southern middle Tennessee.

Some weak forcing extends southwest from this disturbance aloft
into northern Alabama. Mainly near and east of a line from
Winchester (TN) to New Market (Madison county - AL) southwest
into southern Lawrence county (AL). A few showers have developed
already this morning in Madison county. Expect additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
through around 1 or 2 PM as this boundary moves east. Not sure how
much convection we will have late this afternoon, as subsidence
behind this disturbance may end precipitation.

Given current cloud cover and expected additional development
(along with some high cloud cover behind it), it may not be quite
as hot as previously thought this afternoon, mainly near and east
of this boundary producing convection this morning.

However, with dewpoints remaining in the 73 to 78 degree range
most likely and the very warm start to the day in the upper 70s in
NW AL, dangerous heat indicated by the Heat Advisory currently in
effect until 7 PM is still expected. He index values later this
afternoon should still climb to between 105 and 109 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Tonight, high pressure will begin to retrograde as a trough begins
to push SE through the Great Lakes region. The trough and
accompanying cold front look to influence our area as early as
Friday morning. The NW flow associated with it will provide
enough of a lifting mechanism to trigger a low chance of
scattered showers and storms during the day on Friday with best
chances east of I-65. The continuation of a Heat Advisory remains
possible west of I-65 where condition will likely remain more
clear allowing for better heating. The additional Heat Advisory
will be further assessed by the dayshift.

The cold front will continue to push SE through the weekend, this
feature coupled with diurnal heating will provide enough support
for additional low to medium shower and storm chance Saturday
afternoon with best chances again being east of I-65. Conditions
dry out on Sunday as the trough continues into the mid Atlantic.
The passage of the front does little in the way of temperatures
with temps only decreasing to the mid 90s through Sunday. While
the slight decrease in temps keep us out of heat advisory
criteria, precautions will still need to be taken for those
partaking in outdoor activities this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Weak frontal boundary will be south of the central TN Valley going
into the second half of the weekend period. Upper ridge pattern over
the SW states will also begin to gradually build eastward heading
into the new week. This will limit much in the way of rain chances
Sun/Mon, with perhaps a few showers/tstms possible in lower NE AL.
Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s Sun will also rebound a
couple of degrees going into Mon. As the upper ridge axis to the west
nudges more into the region, highs look to rebound further into the
mid/perhaps upper 90s Tue/Wed, with max heat indices approaching 105F
by mid week. Rain chances for the most part look nil as well heading
into the middle of the week. Lows Sat night in the lower 70s/near 70F
will also trend more in the lower/mid 70s for the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

VFR weather should continue across the region through late Fri
morning. A westerly surface flow of 5-10kt, with a few higher
gusts this afternoon should become light and variable this
evening. A cold front approaching from the NW will bring an
increase in clouds, along with higher chances of showers/storms
late in the TAF. Chances for a shower impacting an airport is too
uncertain for inclusion in the latter portion of the TAF.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...RSB