Thunderstorms developed within a warm, moist, and unstable atmosphere in advance of an approaching cold front. Some of these storms increased to severe levels and produced damaging winds and/or hail up to half-dollar size.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed within a warm, moist, and unstable atmosphere in advance of an approaching cold front. Some of these storms increased to severe levels and produced damaging winds and/or hail up to half-dollar size.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 12:03 PM EST, 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 103 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move from Midwest to the eastern Great Lakes today. Thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to develop in a warm, moist, and unstable airmass across the region this afternoon. The risk of seeing thunderstorms will continue until the passage of a cold front by Tuesday morning. High pressure is then expected to work across the Tennessee Valley Tuesday, with drier weather through Wednesday. An area of low pressure, moving along a front from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas, will bring our next chance for storms Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1015 AM EDT MON AUG 07 2023 Key Messages: - Severe thunderstorm risk has been increased to a Moderate level, or Level 4 out of 5, for this afternoon and evening. - Please have multiple ways of receiving weather information this afternoon and evening. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving through the Ohio Valley at mid-morning. The trough should become negatively tilted as it, along with the speed max (and increased upper- level difluence) associated with the 250mb jet, moves into our forecast area this afternoon. Thermodynamically, we've got at least a head start. This morning's RNK sounding had close to 700 J/kg of MLCAPE. Instability should be more than ample across our area this afternoon, as daytime heating allows MLCAPE values to approach 2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon (SBCAPE could reach 3000 J/kg). As the synoptic scale features approach our region, effective bulk shear values will likely increase to 40-50 kts. Based on the strength of the fields and the potential for damaging wind gusts greater than 70 MPH, just about our entire area has been upgraded to a Moderate (or Level 4 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction Center. As a bit of trivia, this is the first August Moderate Risk for the NWS Blacksburg forecast area since August 2005. Overall, there's been no significant change in the expected development/progression of the convection this afternoon. We still think that thunderstorms will develop/move into the western part of our forecast area between noon and 2 PM. Initially, these storms will likely be discrete. But as they continue to develop and move eastward, they will form into a line, with a primary risk of damaging winds and hail. Tornadoes are also possible across the entire area, although the parameters for development appear to be greater along and west of the I-81 corridor. As of 240 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: Severe storms a good possibility this afternoon... Models this morning continue to advertise a decent chance of strong to severe storms this afternoon, especially east of the mountains, but even the mountains will not be immune to strong storm potential. There is a complex of storms moving out of Illinois and Indiana, heading into northern Kentucky this morning. The 0z HRRR/ARW/FV3 all have this lined up fairly close, while the 3km NAM is lagging in time by up to 3-4 hours. Usually in these scenarios, the convective allowing models, and models in general tend to be slower than actuality. Considering this will likely still see our best window for storms running from noon-1pm through 6-8pm. The NCAR Neural Network lines up well with this thinking but slightly slower just like the CAMS. No changes to the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center as enhanced risk continues with a strong southwest-west flow aloft for August leading to increased bulk shear. The question will be cloud cover reaching our mountains early enough to limit instability but even with that said, the dynamics/shear would still be strong enough to overcome that for severe storms. The better chance for severe from what we are observing will be east of the mountains and especially in the foothills/piedmont as high-res models develop a QLCS. The better parameter for any brief tornadoes per the low and mid levels exists from southeast KY through the Alleghanys into PA, with lower chances east. Further east the big issue will be straight line damaging winds, but cannot rule out a brief tornado along the bowing line. Though there is a marginal risk for flooding, the speed of the storms should limit this. Given the mode of storms expected today, cannot say for sure that everyone will see measurable rain so kept pops in the 60-70 percent range, with higher chances north of I-64. The main line of storms should be out of the forecast area by 8-9pm, maybe sooner. Behind this the actual front and upper vort pass through as low level flow turns west keeping showers and few storms in the mountains into the evening but more scattered. Showers will likely stay scattered through the overnight in WV thanks to being under the 5h trough and some upslope component. Aside from the storms today, the gradient will be tighter so outside the storms, expect a breeze with a few gusts to 25 mph in the mountains/foothills. Temperature forecast leaned toward persistence. Would be surprised that temps drop into the 70s as the line moves across this afternoon, but overall high temps should be around 90 in the piedmont and perhaps Roanoke to 80s in the west. Confidence is higher for the piedmont over the mountains for highs. Tonight, drier air will be starting to filter in as dewpoints drop from the upper 60s to lower 70s today to the lower to mid 60s by Tuesday morning. Lows will be close to this, slightly higher in the piedmont with upper 60s to 70 east to lower 60s west. Winds stay up enough late tonight, so not expecting any fog concerns. Forecast confidence is high on sky cover, timing of storms and severe risk, but average on temps. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1235 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Potential for Storms on Thursday. - Wednesday will be dry for most locations. Discussion: Surface high pressure will become established over the area following the passage of a cold front, leading to quiet, dry weather for most locations through Wednesday night. A warm front draped across the southeastern US will slowly lift northward, as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes through Thursday, which will provide the next opportunity for strong storms over the area through Thursday. Increased mid level winds associated with the more northern system will advect greater moisture into the area, as indicated by forecast PWATs over 1.5 inches by Thursday morning. This set up may contribute to heavy rainfall within any of the storms that develop. Models are suggesting that the strongest storms will be along the southern Blue Ridge and the Piedmont, given the eastward movement of a strong low level jet across Tennessee and the Carolinas. With the upslope flow from strong westerly winds, mountain showers and storms could continue into Friday. Temperatures will be near normal through this forecast period, with highs in the upper 70s in the west and mid to upper 80s in the east. Forecast confidence is average to high. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1255 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Storms possible on Saturday, Sunday and Monday look dry for most. - Near normal temperatures are expected. Discussion: A surface frontal system develops over the Great Lakes, and while the center low looks to track northeastward through eastern Canada, the cold front will drop through the Mid Atlantic over the weekend. This system will provide the next chance for the area to see showers and thunderstorms. Showers and storms will likely develop by Saturday afternoon over the mountains, then push eastward and eventually diminishing by the overnight hours in the east. Some showers and storms may linger over the mountains through early Sunday morning. Some models are also hinting at the front slowing down to the east over the area, over far eastern Virginia and North Carolina, which may lead to continued chances for showers and storms over the Piedmont through Sunday. However, given how far out this is in the forecast period, confidence is not very high. Temperatures will be near normal through this forecast period. Forecast confidence is average through Friday, but low over the weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 603 AM EDT MONDAY... Areas of fog/low clouds across the forecast area this morning will scatter out by 14-15z. Still looking at good chance of storms this afternoon with gusty winds the main threat. Aviation interests will need to be cognizant of severe weather threats in our area between 17z-00z. Trying to time storms impacting terminals with tempo groups has BLF/LWB getting the bulk of it in the 19-20z time frame then reaching BCB/ROA 19-21z and LYH/DAN 20-23z. Gusty winds ahead of the front and storms expected out of the southwest. Mainly VFR outside the storms today, then IFR/MVFR in the storms. Once the storms clear, the front will give more showers/few storms into Monday evening over the mountains BLF/LWB with sub- VFR likely, while further east starts to dry and scatter out. Forecast confidence is average. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Tuesday and Wednesday: Flight category reductions possible in river valleys due to areas of late night BR/FG. Otherwise, mainly VFR flight categories are expected. Thursday and Friday: Another storm system could yield more storms and sub- VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...DB NEAR TERM...DB/WP SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...PM/SH/WP
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 937 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-081345- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson- Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 937 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a moderate, or Level 4 out of 5, risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. This area is generally west of a Boone North Carolina, to Martinsville and Buckingham Virginia Line. Across the remainder of Southside Virginia and the North Carolina Piedmont, there is an enhanced, or Level 3 out of 5, risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging winds, possibly in excess of 70 miles an hour, and hail. Tornadoes will be possible, especially west of the Interstate 81 corridor. Localized flooding is also a possibility. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk. Butts
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:48 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew several trees down in the Chilhowie area. Damage values are estimated.
Quarter to half-dollar size hail fell at the intersection of Highway 221 and Indian Valley Road.
Thunderstorm winds blew down multiple trees in the community of Claudville. Damage values are estimated.
Thunderstorm winds blew multiple trees down across the southern sections of the community of Stuart, VA and also, tops of trees were blown off and one tree was uprooted three miles west-southwest of Critz, VA. Damage values were estimated.
Thunderstorm winds blew a tree down along Route 58. Damage values are estimated.
Thunderstorm winds blew multiple trees down along Penn Store Road and also a single tree along Old Well Road. The downed tree along Old Well Road fell on a home, trapping, but not injuring, one resident. Damages are estimated.
Thunderstorm winds blew a large tree down across a power line along Marigold road, resulting in a power outage in the area. Additionally, thunderstorm winds blew a tree down near the intersection of Highway 58 and Soapstone Road. Damage values are estimated.
Thunderstorm winds blew numerous trees down along Highway 311 near Crows. Damage values are estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1132379, 1132375, 1132377, 1132381, 1132382, 1132383, 1132384, 1132389, 1132380.