Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, September 8 to 11, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
729 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and The Early Weekend/

Changes are on the way, just will be initially slow through
tomorrow morning, then we'll begin to expedite things beyond the
short term period. Looking at the current thermodynamic data/
skew-T from the current 00z FWD U/A run, we are still seeing the
effects of the eastern extent of the strong upper ridge within
the 400mb-500mb layer. In addition, only a thin veil of moisture
was noted within the 700mb-550mb layer with relatively weak NW
flow 20-25 kts. So despite a strong westward-moving outflow
boundary now moving into the far eastern Metro up to near I-35
along the Red River, there are some mitigating factors to go along
with the fairly unreliable forecasts of our CAMs. We are watching
scattered strong-severe storms across far southern Oklahoma along
the main synoptic cold front (the first of several this coming
week) and steering currents will result in relatively south to
southeastward motion of convection the remainder of the evening
and overnight hours.

After collaboration with SPC and WFO OUN regarding our
thermodynamic environment down here, it was deemed to be a fairly
isolated severe coverage this evening with a pause on any severe
tstorm watches for North TX at this time. This is all in despite
the very hot temperatures and continued inverted-V conditions
below high elevated cloud bases around 10 kft or 700mb. In
addition to boundaries and wind shifts/storms, the environment S
of the front across southern Oklahoma remains very hot with temps
still in the 106-109 degree range west of the aforementioned west-
moving outflow boundary. Air west of this boundary was also well
mixed and much drier with dew point temperatures between 45-55
degrees with a few fires cropping up in Montague Co just SE of the
city of Bowie and another few smaller flare up across central
Palo Pinto County not too far from the town of Palo Pinto. So per
collaboration with TFS, HAMS, and EMs, are on the ready in case a
Fire Warning is needing to be issued.

Any low coverage severe weather threat will be confined to
especially those parts of North Texas along and N of Hwy 380 and
across Central TX east of Hwy 6, but more so east of I-45 into
East Texas. Light S winds 5-10 mph will become E 10-15 mph with an
occasional gust to 20 mph once the outflow boundary passes west
through the DFW Metro and I-35/35W corridor the next several
hours. Winds should return SE around 10 mph just before sunrise
Saturday, before the cold front arrives Saturday, mainly during
the afternoon for most of us, though earlier from Hwy 380
northward to the OK/TX border. Winds will once again become east
to even northeast 10 to 20 mph once the front passes through. In
addition, scattered showers and storms, a few strong to severe can
be expected along and ahead of the cold front where highs will
still reach or exceed the century mark primarily south of I-20.
Further north with morning cloud cover, a few showers and storms,
and some low level cold advection...highs should be contained in
the 90s, though I certainly would rule out a few upper 80s across
the immediate Red River Valley E of Sherman-Denison to Paris and
down to I-30 and the Sulphur Springs/Emory/Cooper areas. It's just
the beginning folks, so enjoy it as we progress through the
weekend into early next week!

05/Martello

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 224 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023/
/Next Week/

Foreshadowing a transition to autumn, a significant pattern shift
will result in high temperatures next week 20 to 30 degrees cooler
than today's extraordinary heat. While not a drought buster,
multiple days of precipitation chances may bring the most
appreciable rainfall amounts since spring.

By Sunday, our persistent ridge will have repositioned itself over
Chihuahua and Sonora, introducing deep northerly flow above North
and Central Texas. Subtle ripples aloft will increase clouds and
maintain rain chances into the upcoming workweek, but daytime
temperatures will remain above normal (though below 100F) Sunday and
Monday. The first significant cold front of September arrives
Monday night with attendant showers and thunderstorms.

Much cooler air will surge into the region on Tuesday. Clouds,
breezy north winds, and lingering rain chances should keep many
locations north of the I-20 corridor in the 70s, the first day
below 80F in North Texas since June 13. Upglide will continue into
the latter half of the week even as southerly winds gradually
return at the surface. This will maintain cloud cover and rain
chances, keeping daytime temperatures below normal through the end
of the week. Although the severe potential looks low, multiple
rounds of rainfall may yield widespread week long totals of 2 to
3 inches.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR with light S winds 4-7 kts, becoming E 10-15 kts with a few
gusts to 20 kts behind a wwd-moving old storm outflow boundary
moving into the far eastern D10/DFW area at this hour. Once the
outflow boundary progresses far enough wwd away from the airports,
then a return to SE winds around 10 kts should occur after 12z
Saturday and until a FROPA occurs in the 19z-21z time frame. At
that time, E-NE winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts will prevail
thereafter.

Another challenge is widely scattered TSRA now developing from the
Red River from K0F2(Bowie) to KGLE(Gainesville) and N of
KDTO(Denton). After collaboration with other D10 aviation
forecasters, there seemed to be too low of confidence due to some
warm air aloft and unreliable CAMs forecasts. We'll be monitoring
this closely for any VCTS additions and VRB gusty winds in/near
any storms, as well as any airport weather warnings for DFW
airport.

As for Waco, S winds 5-10 knots will back SE 9-14 kts by 04z-06z,
or once any LLJ can establish with the surface being relatively
coupled with the 950mb-925mb layer due to the steamy temperatures.
As FROPA approaches in the afternoon, better coverage of TSRA was
enough to insert a VCTS at this time after 18z, but remaining VFR.

05/Martello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  98  75  96  74 /  20  20  10  20  20
Waco                79 103  75  98  72 /  10  40  20  20  10
Paris               70  92  66  91  66 /  40  10   0   5  10
Denton              76  96  71  96  70 /  20  20  10  20  30
McKinney            74  95  69  93  69 /  30  20   5  10  20
Dallas              79  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  20
Terrell             74  96  70  95  69 /  30  30   5  10  10
Corsicana           78 100  75  97  72 /  20  30  10  10  10
Temple              79 104  73  99  72 /  10  40  30  20  10
Mineral Wells       75 100  72  98  71 /  20  20  10  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>093-100>104-115>121-129>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-105-122-123-
135-148.

Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
TXZ130>134-141>147-156>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
122 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091300-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
122 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Excessive heat will once again be a hazard this afternoon as
temperatures rise to 110 in some locations with heat index values
around 112.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight,
especially across East Texas. A few storms may be strong to severe,
with damaging winds and large hail the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Heat will continue on Saturday for areas near and west of I-35,
where highs are expected to range between 100-105.

Storm chances will continue through the rest of the week. Severe
storms are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Very limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon east
of the I-35 corridor.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
716 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023

TXZ092-090100-
Cooke TX-
716 PM CDT Fri Sep 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Cooke County through
800 PM CDT...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hubert H Moss Lake, or near Gainesville, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Muenster, Lindsay, Callisburg, Lake Muenster, Hubert H
Moss Lake, Lake Kiowa, Valley View, Walnut Bend, Bulcher, Sturgeon,
Marysville, Sivells Bend, Woodbine, Dexter, Burns, Myra, Illinois
Bend, and Lake Ray Roberts.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 489 and 503.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 9694 3346 9695 3359 9749 3391 9748
      3383 9746 3382 9738 3387 9734 3386 9726
      3392 9721 3386 9717 3381 9721 3376 9719
      3372 9711 3381 9709 3382 9705 3385 9709
      3384 9703 3389 9698 3395 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 307DEG 18KT 3372 9722

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30