Drought in Texas, September 5 to 30, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

Short term impacts include fire weather (see fire weather discussion
below), heat, and low chances for showers and storms.

Tonight, we'll see continued low chances for showers in storms in
Atoka / Bryan counties (associated with the upper low meandering
through eastern Oklahoma) and very low chances in northwest Oklahoma
(a few models show a subtle upper wave moving through, though
moisture is quite questionable).

A front is forecast to enter northwest Oklahoma early tomorrow
morning, slowly making its way southward before stalling
approximately from southwest Oklahoma up through north central
Oklahoma (confidence in the location of stalling is low). This will
provide some modest relief from the heat in northwest Oklahoma, as
well as a focus for a few scattered showers and storms along the
front Tuesday evening and overnight as the main wave moves over.

Southern Oklahoma and north Texas (and to a lesser extent,
extending up into central Oklahoma), on the other hand, will
continue to see temperatures and humidity ramp up, bringing heat
indices back into the 105 to 110 range. Thus, a heat advisory has
been issued for these southern counties.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

The aforementioned front should give a gradient between cooler
temperatures in northern Oklahoma (heat indices in the 90s) and
hotter temperatures in southern Oklahoma and western north Texas
(heat indices of 100 to 110). Again, allow for some uncertainty in
where this boundary sets up exactly.

By Thursday, southerly flow will bring the heat right back across
the forecast area. With the increasing temperatures, RHs will dip
again across western parts of the forecast area allowing RFTIs to
become elevated again.

Another front is expected to enter the area Friday as the upper
ridge shifts westward, bringing cooler (near to just above normal)
temperatures and increased rain chances over the weekend.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected at least
through mid afternoon tomorrow.

There is a low chance (10%) of showers late tonight into tomorrow
morning. Otherwise, generally mid-level clouds are expected
tonight with breezy southerly winds tonight. A modest low-level
jet will result in low-level wind shear (LLWS) as well.

A cold front/northerly wind shift will enter northwest Oklahoma
tomorrow morning, which will gradually move to the southeast
through the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the front late afternoon into the early evening,
which will have the highest chance of affecting KOKC/KOUN/KLAW.
Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty, variable
winds and brief reduction in visibility.

Mahale

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

There are a number of nuances to the fire weather situation today
and tonight across western Oklahoma and western north Texas, even
after RFTIs fall to zero and the Red Flag warning expires.

Currently, RH values are dipping into the teens (some obs as low as
11 percent) across this area, combined with sustained southerly
winds of 20 to 25 mph (thus the Red Flag warning). However, even
after RH values start to recover (expecting a fair recovery of 50 to
60 percent tonight), south winds are expected to remain gusty (15 to
25 mph) through much of the night. Additionally, we have a very low
chance (10%) for an isolated shower or storm in northwest Oklahoma
this evening, which could produce some localized gusty outflow.

Toward morning, winds will reach a relative minima of 10 to 15 mph
and a cool front will start to bring a wind shift to the north into
northwest Oklahoma. Progression of the front will be slow before it
eventually stalls approximately from southwest Oklahoma to north
central Oklahoma (note, confidence in location of where the front
stalls is low). Winds will be breezy again tomorrow, mainly ahead of
the front, but RH values will be a bit higher (low to mid 20s)
limiting RFTI values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76 100  71  93 /  10  10  30  10
Hobart OK         76 104  69  98 /   0  10  30   0
Wichita Falls TX  78 107  75 105 /  10  10  30  10
Gage OK           70  95  62  93 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     75  98  66  91 /  10  10  20  10
Durant OK         75 101  75 102 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ032-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ085-086-089-
     090.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
917 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-060230-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
917 PM CDT Mon Sep 4 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance for thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening along a cold front near the I-44 corridor.
Isolated, damaging wind gusts is the primary hazard with the most
intense thunderstorms.

There is a low chance for thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma
and north Texas Wednesday afternoon. There will be more
widespread thunderstorms chances this weekend into early next
week.

.Heat...
Heat index values of 105 to 110 will be possible starting Tuesday
and continue through Friday, especially across portions of
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible once again
Thursday and Friday in parts of western Oklahoma and western north
Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale