Flash Flood and Damaging Wind in Texas, May 26, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
645 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Overall, confidence is relatively low for the location and timing of
convection in our area today and tonight, given the slow moving MCS
currently stalled over eastern New Mexico and not being handled well
by HiRes CAMS. The details for the potential of discrete supercells
across SE NM moving into our area later today and this evening are
below, but much of the area may see little to no thunderstorm
activity, or another separate MCS (details also below) similar to
what we've seen the last few nights out of NE NM.

The slow moving MCS currently on our doorstep in eastern NM is
expected to eventually drift southeast across our area through the
remainder of the overnight and after sunrise over the South Plains
and eventually over the southern Rolling Plains toward the I20
corridor by early afternoon. Stable low stratus cloud cover in the
wake of the MCS should persist into the late morning, early
afternoon on the Caprock. Low stratus ceilings should begin to erode
west to east across the Caprock, beginning in the early afternoon.
Instability will increase quickly where clouds begin to clear with
robust boundary layer moisture in place. Steep low level lapse rates
will develop where the clearing occurs in eastern New Mexico, with
modeled CAPE values (~1500 J/kg) likely a little low due to lack of
precision of where the sun will be able to first break through to
our west. An increase in the sub-tropical jet across southeast New
Mexico will result in improved effective bulk shear values around
50kts at peak heating in vicinity of our southwest South Plains
zones by late afternoon, and collocated with the best upper level
divergence. The SPC has upped the day one outlook to 'Enhanced'
with supercells possible of producing all hazards including a five
percent chance of tornadoes and heavy rainfall into the early
evening hours. CI is expected to originate in SE NM and the storms
to move into or in the vicinity of our area rather than originate
in our CWA.

There is still some question as to whether the convection driven by
the instability across SE NM will make it into our area before
heading farther south toward the I20 corridor later in the evening.
Not to be ignored, is another shortwave across NE NM, progged to
eject across the amplified upper level ridging. Another MCS is
expected to develop along the front range of the Sangre de
Cristos and work southeast through the late day and evening hours,
similar to the last few nights. Instability out ahead of that
scenario is difficult to diagnose at this point with cloud cover
anticipated to keep max temperatures in the low 70s across the
southwest Texas Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue for most days through
the end of next week. Southwesterly flow aloft will enhance this
weekend with a short wave ridge axis currently overhead shifting
east. A rex blocking pattern in the eastern CONUS will keep this
pattern through Sunday. Low level south to southeasterly flow will
preserve continued moisture flux into the region. Minor short waves
within the southwest flow aloft on Saturday will bring better lift
but models will likely have a better handle on these more subtle
features with later runs. A more well defined short wave trough is
forecast to approach the area on Sunday afternoon bringing better
lift overhead. Healthy low level theta-e values on both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons will lead to strong uncapped instability. Monday
and Tuesday may see less thunderstorm coverage as upper ridging
builds overhead again. Thunderstorm chances on these days will favor
areas off the caprock where a slight weakness in the mid level
height fields will be located. A return to southwesterly flow aloft
from Wednesday and beyond will bring additional severe storm
chances. Flow aloft will increase with possible negatively tilted
short waves bringing a possible active start to June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period at KCDS. Low MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected through
much of the morning and early afternoon at KPVW and KLBB along
with showers and thunderstorms through mid-morning. Showers and
thunderstorms can be expected once again later this afternoon and
evening in the vicinity of KPVW and KLBB, though confidence is low
attm for best timing and location of strongest storms.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...55

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
253 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

TXZ021>044-270800-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
253 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A complex of scattered thunderstorms will move southeastward into the
area early Friday morning. Some storms may be strong to severe. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing hail to the size of
quarters, wind gusts to 60 mph, and localized flash flooding.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in eastern New Mexico
this afternoon and move east into West Texas during the evening
hours. Some storms may be severe, capable of producing hail to
baseball size and wind gusts to 70 mph. A few tornadoes will be
possible this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and persist
into the evening and overnight hours from Saturday through Thursday.
Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Heavy
rainfall may also result in localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
708 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

TXZ029-034-035-261300-
Hockley TX-Lubbock TX-Hale TX-
708 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lubbock, northeastern
Hockley and southwestern Hale Counties through 800 AM CDT...

At 708 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles west of Abernathy to 5 miles west of
Reese Center. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lubbock, Abernathy, Wolfforth, Shallowater, Idalou, Ransom Canyon,
Lubbock South Plains Mall, Texas Tech University, Lubbock
International Airport, Downtown Lubbock, Woodrow, Reese Center, New
Deal, Smyer, Buffalo Springs and Lubbock Science Spectrum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3374 10161 3346 10170 3339 10208 3372 10232
      3382 10208 3395 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1208Z 307DEG 23KT 3383 10192 3362 10213

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MCZ