Another round of strong storms produced heavy rainfall across the area, resulting in flash flooding during the afternoon of May 15.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS HGX wrote it up.
Another round of strong storms produced heavy rainfall across the area, resulting in flash flooding during the afternoon of May 15.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Houston/Galveston, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 12:51 PM CST, 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 151 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Sunday featured plentiful and widespread rainfall with some locations seeing street flooding and rises on local bayous and creeks. This is especially apparent across Harris, Montgomery, Grimes, and Chambers Counties. That's important to note, because with all of the previous rainfall, our soils are fairly saturated. CREST soil moisture reveals saturation of up 45%-65% in portions of these counties. With a 588-590 dam mid level high pushing westward into the Mississippi/Alabama region, shortwaves wrapping around this high will provide the lift needed to generate another round of showers/storms this morning/afternoon. Moisture availability will be greatest along and west of the I-45 corridor, so this is where PoPs are the highest. We'll need to monitor the Matagorda Bay area as high resolution model guidance continues to point towards this area receiving another 2-3" of rain today. Showers and storms are expected to develop in the late morning hours and expand in coverage throughout the afternoon hours while moving in a general south to north direction. With additional rainfall occuring over already saturated soils, additional rises on creeks and bayous will be possible. As a result, areas west of I-45 are under a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) of excessive rainfall, and a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) to the east of I-45. As far as temperatures go, it'll be highly dependent on the timing of showers/storms over a particular location. Mid level ridging will be building in, so we should get some decent breaks in the cloud cover especially east of I-45. Low to mid 80s will be common, but upper 80s will be possible for our eastern locations if they can manage to dodge the rainfall long enough. Rainfall tapers off going into the evening hours, and we reset to do it all over again on Tuesday. However, there is a "cold" front to talk about. A weak cold front will push its way in on early Tuesday morning and will become increasingly washed out as it moves in, but it will do two things for us. One, there'll be a northerly wind shift (at least north of I- 10). Two, moisture convergence along the boundary increases PW values back to near the 90th percentile (~1.76"). The front won't really do much for lift, but we will have favorable mid level dynamics as a shortwave trough begins to develop with its axis oriented along the TX Gulf Coast on Tuesday. So, expect another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday from the late morning to the early evening hours. Again, we have the scenario of additional rainfall falling over saturated soils. Unsurprisingly, there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for most of Southeast TX on Tuesday. It's worth noting that some models indicate this shortwave trough evolving into a cutoff low over South TX, but there are some notable differences on timing. Some models bring this low in on Tuesday afternoon and some bring it in on Tuesday night. As a result, I've kept PoPs going into Tuesday night especially south of I-10 where there will be more favorable forcing. A brief note on Tuesday's temperatures: a rather robust upper level digs down into northeastern CONUS on Tuesday and squashes out the ridging aloft that had been in place earlier in the week. Our Tuesday shortwave trough is at the tail-end of this larger upper level trough...see? All the storylines got connected together at the end! Multiple river sites, bayous, creeks, and streams remain with elevated flows and the additional rainfall will definitely not help with that. So, be sure to stay up to date on the forecast and road conditions around waterways. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 The weak cool front mentioned in the Short Term section should finally make its way off the coast by early Wednesday morning. Showers and storms will still be possible over the coastal counties and waters given the combination of low level moisture, sfc weak convergence and the passage of subtle shortwaves aloft. Drier and warmer weather conditions return to the region after midweek as mid-upper ridging builds to our west. Even warmer conditions can be expected on Friday as the ridge axis moves overhead. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s both days. Some locations could see highs in the low 90s by Friday. A deepening upper level trough near the Great Lakes will drag a "stronger" cold front southward into the Southern Plains early Saturday. Latest GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with the frontal timing and strength. The Canadian, on the other hand, keeps the frontal boundary north of the area, and brings different shortwaves over the region through the upcoming week. For this forecast package, have leaned towards GFS/EC/NBM with the FROPA moving through on Saturday. Therefore, kept some 15-30 percent PoPs through early Sunday. Drier weather returns towards the end of the long term period as a sfc high pressure builds over the central CONUS. JM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop across SE Texas this afternoon, periodically bringing MVFR CIGS. Rainfall tapers off this evening as winds become light and variable. Patchy fog and low CIGS may develop overnight, bringing MVFR to IFR conditions into the early morning hours of Tuesday. VFR conditions return Tuesday morning with winds becoming north to northwest from a weak frontal boundary. Another round of scattered storms should develop late Tuesday afternoon. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a few disturbances move through the Middle/Upper TX coast. Locally gusty winds, elevated seas and frequent lightning can be expected near/with the strongest storms. Isolated showers and storms can again be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak cool front slowly moves and possibly stalls over the northwestern Gulf. Dry weather can then be expected into Saturday. Light onshore winds will prevail through the week; however, light and variable winds can be expected Tuesday - Thursday time frame. JM && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Due to the recent rainfall, there are multiple river sites that are either in flood stage or forecast to go into flood stage mainly along the Lavaca/Navidad and San Jacinto. Most of these sites are near or approaching their crests, but we will need to monitor for the additional rainfall expected over at least the next few days. Today's main concern will be along the Lavaca/Navidad in our southwestern counties as this is where high resolution model guidance continues to trend towards an additional 2-3" of potential rainfall. In addition to the river flood warnings that are out, we have also issued two areal flood warnings based on reports from Montgomery County OEM of numerous roadways that are not passable and HCFCD gauge reports. Again, we will have to monitor today's rainfall trends as they could cause additional rises along area rivers, creeks, and bayous due to the soils being fairly saturated leading to quicker runoff. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 84 67 82 65 / 50 30 50 10 Houston (IAH) 86 70 85 68 / 40 20 50 20 Galveston (GLS) 84 73 84 72 / 20 20 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...Batiste LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...03 MARINE...JM
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
126 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023
TXZ199-212-213-227-151900-
Waller TX-Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-Montgomery TX-
126 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023
...A cluster of strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north
central Fort Bend, southwestern Montgomery, southeastern Waller and
northwestern Harris Counties through 200 PM CDT...
At 123 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jersey Village. This storm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Katy, Tomball, Jersey Village, Brookshire, The Woodlands, Greater
Greenspoint, Aldine, northern Addicks Park Ten, Hockley, Waller, Pine
Island, Pattison, Hooks Airport, Willowbrook, Cypress, Carverdale,
Greater Inwood, Hidden Valley, Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing and
northwestern Acres Home.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 2991 9539 2975 9593 3001 9608 3018 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 140DEG 4KT 2992 9562
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
BBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
208 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023
TXZ197-211-152015-
Washington TX-Austin TX-
208 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Austin
and south central Washington Counties through 315 PM CDT...
At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shelby, or 14 miles southwest of Brenham. This storm was nearly
stationary.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Shelby and Industry.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3017 9653 3000 9643 2996 9656 2997 9658
3004 9662 3007 9662 3008 9663 3011 9663
3012 9664
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 151DEG 4KT 3002 9657
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPHSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 230 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 TXZ199-213-152000- Inland Harris TX-Montgomery TX- 230 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 ...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Montgomery and north central Harris Counties through 300 PM CDT... At 229 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Splashtown, or near Spring. This storm was nearly stationary. HAZARD...Pea size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Tomball, The Woodlands, Spring, Oak Ridge North, Shenandoah, Splashtown, The Woodlands Pavillion and Chateau Woods. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 3007 9535 3001 9548 3014 9564 3025 9546 TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 140DEG 4KT 3009 9545 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH BB
The Houston radar (KHGX), 72 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:41 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
N Eldridge Pkway was made impassable due to floodwaters between FM 1960 and Falbrook.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1102314.