A strong upper level system over northeast CO swung across the central Plains. Strong surface pressure gradients led to winds 30-40 mph with gusts 55-60 mph.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
A strong upper level system over northeast CO swung across the central Plains. Strong surface pressure gradients led to winds 30-40 mph with gusts 55-60 mph. A large grass fire burned in Wheeler County on the afternoon of March 31st where RH values got as low as 7 percent. Given the significantly dry fuels and the strong winds, the amount of time that it took to contain a fire that quickly spread to over 1000 acres was pretty good.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 11:10 AM CST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1210 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023
Upper level trough over northeast CO will swing across the central
plains today, with a strong surface gradient setup across the
Panhandles, we'll see sustained winds 35-40 mph across the west and
southern Panhandles, with 30 to 35 mph winds elsewhere. Gusts may
reach 60 mph in the southern and western Panhandles and 55mph
elsewhere. While we'll have plenty of mixing due to clear skies
and a weak morning inversion that will quickly break after sunrise,
the winds aloft get weaker and it will be harder to mix stronger
wind gusts down. But there will be a lot of subsidence as we'll be
in the left entrance region of the upper jet, and we'll have strong
surface gradients, so overall it will be a windy day Panhandle wide.
Due to the ongoing drought and recent wind events that have produced
blowing dust, even at a lower magnitude than expected today, we will
be going with a Blowing Dust Advisory, in addition to the other wind
highlights. These winds will quickly relax in the evening as the
jet exits east and the strong surface low moves further away into
the Great Lakes region. Winds will come down and should fall less
than 20 mph after sunset, and go light and variable overnight. In
addition to all the wind today, very dry air will be over the
Panhandles today from the Pacific front currently moving across the
Panhandles, as dewpoints will drop into the teens to single digits,
and RH values could go as low as 5 percent.
With the light and variable winds tonight and clear skies, it is
expected that the northern Panhandles will fall below freezing, and
the northwest Panhandles may even have a hard freeze. We are still
too early to start Freeze Warnings for the growing season, but we're
also not that far off from when it's about to start.
Saturday there will be a brief break in the active weather as zonal
flow will be over the Panhandles and warmer air will start to move
back in from the west. Most areas should see highs on Saturday in
the 70s. Winds will be out of the south and around 10 to 20 mph.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023
Overview:
Big story in the long term continues to be the threat of fire
weather conditions nearly every day. That said, we could see some
relief on Wednesday/Thursday as cooler temperatures are forecast,
but that is not a guarantee at this time as elevated conditions
could come to fruition. At this time, Tuesday does look to be the
most noteworthy day regarding potential impacts from fire weather.
Otherwise, we have a very small change for rainfall on Sunday,
but this small chance only covers a small portion of the southeast
TX Panhandle. In other words, not something to get any hopes up
for at this point regarding rainfall accumulation in this
forecast.
Further Details:
Pattern aloft can be characterized by cross-barrier flow which
will help induce lee cyclogenesis essentially every day in the
extended. On Sunday, a very subtle and weak shortwave will be
noted within this zonal flow, and precipitation chances could
arise across southeastern parts of the Texas Panhandle, but at
this time chances are much better east of the forecast area. In
fact, most--if not the entire area--will likely be dry
Sunday/Sunday night. The probability for 0.10"/12hr is less the
5%, so this is not anything we should get too excited about
regarding the drought conditions across the Panhandles. This only
solidifies the fact fire weather is the main threat in the
forecast at this time as warm, dry, and breezy/windy conditions
are expected. The next trough is larger and stronger, and that one
is progged to start passing through the Plains on Tuesday,
bringing a strong stacked jet over the Panhandles.
With daily occurrences of a surface low/trough in the vicinity of
the forecast area, gradient wind speeds and afternoon mixing will
lead to strong wind speeds. The strongest wind speeds are
anticipated on Tuesday when sustained speeds of 30-40 mph are
expected with gusts of 55+ mph. The 24hr probability from the NBM
of gusts greater 41 knots is 70%-90% across nearly the entire
area, and the probability for 24hr gusts over 48 knots is around
50%-70% across mainly the border between us and New Mexico. In
other words, it does appear the strongest wind speeds will be
favored across western portions of the forecast area. This also
means the greatest threat for fire weather will be across the west
as well. Of course, this is still day 5, and there have been some
indications from previous runs that the next longwave trough
could end up coming through faster. This could alleviate the
threat of fire weather to at least some degree. While Tuesday is
the most noteworthy day in the extended, it might be a little too
early to call it a guarantee for higher end critical fire weather.
Will continue to monitor because we are going into several days
of accelerated drying which could make fuels dangerous on Tuesday.
In fact, Monday night RH is only forecast to get to around 15-25%
for overnight recovery, so it will not take much to get to
critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday given the strength of
the winds and the fuel environment.
Guerrero
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023
The main story will be the ongoing strong and gusty winds that are
expected to continue through 00Z Saturday. West winds will
continue to gust over 40 kts for all three terminals at least
through 22Z or so with a gradual decrease through about 03Z
Saturday. After 03Z Sat winds will start to drop below 15 kts with
a more northerly direction. Heading toward the sunrise, around 10Z
Sat, winds are expected to become light and variable for a short
time before picking back up to around 15 kts out of the south to
southwest. Skies should remain clear, however, during these first
6 hours of the period blowing dust could cause ASOS's to measure a
broken deck below 3k feet causing some MVFR conditions at times.
36
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023
Critical Fire Weather will be across the entire Panhandles today.
Winds will be in the 30 to 40 mph range and gust up to 60 mph in the
southern areas. Northern and easter areas will be in the 30 to 35
mph range and gusts could be up to 55 mph. RH values will be as low
as 5 percent, and there's even a hint at isolated ares dropping to 4
percent. Winds will be coming down as the RH's bottom out, but
overall we'll still be seeing widespread RFTI's 6 to 7, with
a few hours of 8's, maybe even a brief 9 could occur. Fuels are
not quite to the 90th percentile which would push today into a more
solid extreme category, but still today will be a high end
critical Fire Weather day and may even be extreme for a couple
hours.
Very dry air and winds close to 20 mph will suggest possible
critical Fire Weather in the Cimarron County area tomorrow. So have
gone with a Fire Weather Watch for that area, with mostly elevated
Fire elsewhere.
Weber
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 35 71 45 81 / 0 0 0 10
Beaver OK 30 68 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 27 67 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 35 73 47 84 / 0 0 0 10
Boys Ranch TX 33 73 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 33 72 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 38 69 44 82 / 0 0 0 10
Dalhart TX 28 69 38 79 / 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 29 68 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 33 74 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 31 68 45 83 / 0 0 0 10
Pampa TX 34 69 45 82 / 0 0 0 10
Shamrock TX 38 69 43 81 / 0 0 0 10
Wellington TX 39 69 43 82 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-
317.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>005-010-015-
020.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-006>009-
011>014-016>019-317.
OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for OKZ001.
&&
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...36Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Amarillo TX 351 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-312100- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 351 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the entire area today. Strong wind are expected as well. Red Flag Warnings, Wind Advisories, and High Wind Warnings are in effect across the Panhandles. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Elevated to critical Fire Weather conditions are also possible Saturday through Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for elevated or critical fire weather conditions today through Wednesday.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1205 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1106 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W LIPSCOMB 36.22N 100.41W
03/31/2023 M61 MPH LIPSCOMB TX MESONET
FIRST WIND GUST REPORT FOR THIS LOCATION.
EVENT IS ONGOING.
&&
PVPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1206 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1205 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW LAKE MCCLELLAN 35.23N 100.90W
03/31/2023 M58 MPH GRAY TX MESONET
FIRST WIND GUST REPORT FOR THIS LOCATION.
EVENT IS ONGOING.
&&
PVPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1210 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1146 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SE DUMAS 35.83N 101.92W
03/31/2023 M58 MPH MOORE TX MESONET
FIRST WIND GUST REPORT FOR THIS LOCATION.
EVENT IS ONGOING.
&&
PVPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1215 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1146 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW LAKE MCCLELLAN 35.23N 100.90W
03/31/2023 M58 MPH GRAY TX MESONET
CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
FROM 2 WNW LAKE MCCLELLAN. CORRECTS PREVIOUS
NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 2 WNW LAKE
MCCLELLAN. FIRST WIND GUST REPORT FOR THIS
LOCATION. EVENT IS ONGOING. LAST UPDATE:
ERRONEOUS REPORT. NO 58 MPH WIND GUST.
&&
PVPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ENE HEREFORD 34.86N 102.33W
03/31/2023 M61 MPH DEAF SMITH TX AWOS
FIRST WIND GUST REPORT FOR THIS LOCATION.
EVENT IS ONGOING.
&&
PVThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Red Fork Fire cause was unknown, but on a day of high winds and critical fire conditions a fire started and lasted about 3 hours. By the time of containment it had burned about 1033 acres.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1084360.