An upper level high pressure system over El Paso was being partially suppressed by a short wave moving across northern New Mexico on the evening of the seventh. Scattered thunderstorms developed along a surface pressure trough near the Texas/New Mexico state line and drifted eastward during the late afternoon and evening hours as a broken line of thunderstorms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
An upper level high pressure system over El Paso was being partially suppressed by a short wave moving across northern New Mexico on the evening of the seventh. Scattered thunderstorms developed along a surface pressure trough near the Texas/New Mexico state line and drifted eastward during the late afternoon and evening hours as a broken line of thunderstorms. Hot and dry near surface conditions allowed for high cloud bases supporting severe wind gusts underneath thunderstorm activity. Several Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet sites measured severe wind gusts with the strongest activity.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 1:36 PM CST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 A broken line of showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly push southeastward across the southern South Plains and the Rolling Plains. This line should continue to slowly wane through the mid afternoon. Farther west, CU has begun to build across the higher terrain of southeastern New Mexico on par with model projections as a result of a weakness in the upper high situated over northern Mexico. Convection should continue to build and push eastward through the mid to late afternoon and cross the Texas/New Mexico state line shortly before 00Z. Models are in decent agreement with having the line of storms approaching the I27 corridor before 03Z with breaks in the line developing along the way. Despite the line breaking apart, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible across the FA through much of the night thanks to a ~35 knot LLJ and ample surface moisture. Some storms could be strong to severe with wind gusts being the primary hazard from wet microbursts. Some isolated showers may still be present by sunrise, mainly over the Rolling Plains, but any showers that remain should begin to dissipate by late morning. The upper high will build northwestward tomorrow placing the FA under northwesterly upper flow. This could allow for another chance at precip tomorrow evening if convection can develop across eastern New Mexico. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 An upper level shortwave will track across the forecast area on Saturday evening. Most models/ensembles indicate the potential for thunderstorms to develop across portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle and the northern Rolling Plains. Sunday looks to be more benign as an upper high builds over northern Mexico and dynamics look unfavorable for any precipitation. Another shortwave will propagate through the ridge moving northwest to southeast on Monday evening, again bringing the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. The PoPs have been increased from the previous forecast accounting for most guidance showing a large swath of QPF over the area. Precipitation chances will diminish mid-to-late week with the absence of any significant upper features. Triple-digit temperatures are expected to return by next week as the aforementioned upper ridge strengthens and synoptic winds will gradually shift from southeast to southwest. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 Shattered rain showers will continue near LBB and CDS over the next hour or two before clearing. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop along the Texas/New Mexico state line by mid to late afternoon and push eastward into the evening. This line may affect PVW and LBB between 00Z and 03Z. There is some uncertainty on coverage during this time, therefore VCTS will prevail in the TAF for the time being. There is greater uncertainty if CDS will be affected. The biggest hazards from any storms that affect the terminals will be strong winds up to 45 knots and brief heavy rainfall. CIGs may also drop to MVFR within convection. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...51
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 TXZ021>044-081945- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Texas - New Mexico state line this afternoon and spread eastward over the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and far southern Texas Panhandle this evening. A few storms may become severe with damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph and up to quarter size hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a chance of thunderstorms during the evening/overnight hours from Saturday through Monday, mainly across the far southern Texas Panhandle. Monday looks to be the most favorable setup. Main threats would include large hail and damaging winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 84 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:54 UTC.
13 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Friona measured a wind gust to 67 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Dimmitt measured severe wind gusts from 1625 CST through 1645 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Amherst measured severe wind gusts from 1635 CST through 1640 CST. A peak wind gust of 62 mph was measured at 1636 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Olton measured a wind gust of 58 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Hart measured a wind gust of 59 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Tulia measured intermittent wind gusts of 58 mph between 1713 CST and 1732 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Anton measured severe wind gusts from 1626 CST through 1627 CST. A peak wind gust of 64 mph was measured at 1626 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Abernathy measured a wind gust of 61 mph.
At 1754 CST, a Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Levelland measured a wind gust of 59 mph. The AWOS at the Levelland Municipal Airport measured a wind gust of 64 mph at 1755 CST.
An off-duty NWS employee estimated wind gusts of 60 mph south of Wolfforth.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Post measured wind gusts to 59 mph at 1924 CST and 1927 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Sundown measured severe wind gusts from 2147 CST through 2151 CST. A peak wind gust of 66 mph was measured at 2151 CST.
Several Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet sites in around Lubbock measured severe wind gusts from 2242 CST through 2305 CST. A peak wind gust of 64 mph was measured at the Lubbock 4SE station at 2257 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1104035, 1104037, 1104036, 1104041, 1104042, 1104045, 1104043, 1104048, 1104455, 1104457, 1104458, 1104460, 1104465.