A weak upper level trough remained stagnant over North and Central Texas during the first week of July, generating isolated thunderstorms each afternoon. A few storms produced marginally severe hail and wind damage on the 3rd and 4th of July, while one slow-moving storm cluster produced flash flooding in Denton County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A weak upper level trough remained stagnant over North and Central Texas during the first week of July, generating isolated thunderstorms each afternoon. A few storms produced marginally severe hail and wind damage on the 3rd and 4th of July, while one slow-moving storm cluster produced flash flooding in Denton County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 12:54 PM CST, 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 154 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1113 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday/ A steady warmup is underway this morning with only some scattered middle and upper level clouds. Afternoon highs should have no problem reaching the middle and upper 90s but afternoon heat index values should only be a few degrees higher thanks to boundary layer mixing of drier air from just above the surface. The 12Z FWD sounding shows a layer of moisture between 850 and 700 mb, so scattered cumulus and altocumulus will continue to develop through the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will also develop through the afternoon with the most favored area for storms across the southeast half of the CWA where precipitable water values will be the highest. However, any new or lingering outflow boundaries could encourage convection just about anywhere across the forecast area. Weak mid-level flow and only moderate instability will keep storms below severe limits, but gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any storm that develops. The loss of surface heating will be the demise of all storms this evening, leaving behind only some scattered altocumulus and cirrus. The weather pattern will begin to change on Independence Day with the Desert Southwest upper ridge gradually shifting eastward, forcing the Plains upper trough, currently overhead, to shift eastward. Although this change will be subtle, it will likely nudge temps/heat index values up a bit and decrease precipitation chances slightly. There will still be enough moisture and instability around to warrant some low (10-20%) PoPs during the heat of the day, especially east of the I-35 corridor where moisture will be most abundant. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday through the Weekend/ As the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest continues to slide eastward, temperatures will also gradually increase across North and Central Texas by midweek. Low rain chances will be in play for our eastern and northern zones late Wednesday, but most areas will remain dry and hot. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s areawide. By Thursday, a front associated with the trough progged to push across the northern CONUS will approach the Red River and slide into North Texas. A secondary shortwave will move in from the west as well. With decent moisture in place, these dynamic features may provide a focus for showers and storms across the area Thursday afternoon and evening, especially for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor. The mesoscale setup for Thursday's convection could be rather complex with the slow moving front and any potential outflow boundaries that develop as well. That being said, severe weather is not expected at this time, but any storms that develop have the potential for gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The front will likely not make it very far into North Texas and won't be very strong, so areas that do see the frontal passage will only see temperatures drops of a few degrees. By Friday, the upper ridge takes a stronger hold over the region and essentially squashes out any meaningful chance for rain by the end of the work week. Southerly flow also returns areawide by then and the hot, dry trend for Friday will continue through the upcoming weekend with temperatures rebounding into the triple digits. Schroeder && .AVIATION... /Issued 1113 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023/ /18Z TAFs ...VFR with south flow... Low and mid level moisture coupled with daytime heating will result in scattered afternoon Cu and isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storm coverage will be limited but chances will be high enough to warrant a brief TEMPO group during the afternoon. The better storm chances will likely be south and southeast of the the Metroplex terminals where moisture will be most abundant. Storm chances and cloud cover will both decrease after sunset. A south wind will prevail at sustained speeds generally less than 12 knots. Occasional daytime gusts could get as high as 18 knots. Of course, erratic and gusty winds will be possible in and near any storms that manage to develop. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 78 96 79 98 / 20 20 20 0 5 Waco 98 76 94 76 97 / 20 5 20 5 10 Paris 94 73 92 74 94 / 20 10 20 5 10 Denton 99 75 97 76 99 / 20 20 20 0 5 McKinney 96 74 94 76 96 / 20 20 20 0 5 Dallas 98 77 96 79 98 / 20 20 20 0 5 Terrell 96 74 95 76 96 / 30 20 20 0 10 Corsicana 96 77 95 78 96 / 30 20 20 5 10 Temple 98 76 96 76 98 / 20 5 20 0 10 Mineral Wells 99 74 97 75 99 / 20 10 20 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. There is a chance of storms this afternoon, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor. Severe weather is unlikely, but a few storms may become strong, with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Low thunderstorm chances will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, with better storm chances on Thursday. Any storm that develops will have the potential to produce lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:35 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management reported a downed telephone pole, a carport thrown into a nearby field, damage to an awning, and damage to an RV between Kaufman and Kemp. A 4-wheeler was also pushed across the yard and other trailers on the property were moved 2-3 feet.
Photos of a blown over metal awning at a business just north of Paris.
Emergency management reported damage to a fence at Wood Family Dog Park from approximately 5 inches of rushing water. Trees were also washed away at the park.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail in Sanger.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1119708, 1120740, 1119706, 1119703, 1119707.