Drought in Texas, February 28, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1035 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

A very weak, Pacific cold front has made its way into far western
portions of the CWA this afternoon. Other than a drop in dewpoint
temps (into the 40s and 50s) and a light northerly wind, there's
been virtually zero sensible weather change from the rest of the
CWA. The front is forecast to stall later this afternoon, retreat
northward, then dissipate this evening, with light and warm
southeasterly winds returning. The warm and moist environment, in
addition to light winds, tonight will likely cause patchy to areas
of fog to develop beginning this evening across the marine waters
before spreading and/or developing inland after midnight tonight.
Latest model guidance suggests the more dense fog should remain
offshore and across portions of the Brooks/Kenedy County Ranches
into Tuesday morning.

Another abnormally warm day is in store for Tuesday. After a mostly
cloudy start to the day, clouds will erode and temperatures will
heat up into the upper 80s and lower 90s for most locations in the
afternoon, though a few locations across Starr and Zapata counties
may reach the mid-90s. Southeast winds will become slightly
breezy/gusty during the afternoon hours as a thermal low across the
Mexican Plateau strengthens the pressure gradient in South Texas.
Afternoon wind gusts will peak around 30 mph. Winds are expected to
further increase Tuesday night as another 30-40kt LLJ develops over
the South Texas coast. A few gusts up to 35 mph will be possible.
Lows will range from the upper 60s/lower 70s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

It continues to look like March will come in as a fiery lamb as heat
builds Wednesday with a heat spike and fire danger still in works
Thursday with the synoptic setup supporting the significant
heating. A cold front follows Thursday night helping to lower
temperatures Friday and next weekend. Still no rain is indicated
Wednesday-Monday which will continue to exacerbate the ongoing
moderate to severe drought plaguing our County Warning Area (CWA)

The strong mid-low pressure trough currently pounding California
tracks through the 4-corners region Wednesday and across West Texas
Thursday maintaining much of its energy but not its moisture.
Strong southwest to west mid-level winds of 50-80+ knots on the
base of the trough flow over the Sierra Madre of Nuevo Leon
providing a downsloping compressional flow over Deep South Texas.
The downsloping affect intensifies Thursday as a cold front
advances a little faster into South Texas and drier air begins to
infiltrate into the western portions of the CWA. Latest Model
guidance remains on board with record heat for Wednesday and
Thursday showing 850mb temps nearing 24C Wed and 28C Thu which are
more common in June than early March. Model guidance trends
continue to show maximum temperatures 20-25+ degrees above normal
or widespread 90s to lower 100s Wednesday and widespread 100s
along and west of I-69C. Daily records are in jeopardy with the
potential for a few monthly records being threatened. Fire weather
threat remains elevated with SPC posting 70 percent probabilities
of critical conditions developing along the Rio Grande Plains and
40 percent for elevated conditions for much of the remainder of
the CWA Thursday. See the Fire Weather section below for
additional details.

Cold front advances through far western area late Thursday afternoon
working offshore by or shortly after sunset. Much drier air and
cooler air works into the region riding on 20-40 mph winds. Wind
advisories may be necessary Thursday night especially for the
western and northern ranchlands where the strong low level jet
resides. Temperatures steadily fall reaching upper 50s to lower 60s
Friday morning. Fair and dry conditions along with more typical
March temperatures ranges, highs in the 70s to low 80s and lows in
the upper 40s to near 60 forecast Friday-Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

Low clouds moving in along the coast have dropped conditions to
IFR at KBRO and MVFR at KHRL. Satellite shows the low clouds and
areas of potential fog, but low ceilings are the main concern now.
Southeast to south winds will remain light to moderate overnight,
bringing more low clouds over the TAF sites and maintaining the
threat of sea fog moving inland. Conditions will lower to to MVFR,
and even IFR late tonight. Southeast winds will slowly increase
Tuesday morning, but VFR conditions may not be realized until late
morning or early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             89  68  88  70 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               92  67  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 92  68  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  66  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  66  73  67 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  67  86  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...54-BHM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
402 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-282215-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island-
Cameron Island-
402 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at the local beaches
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

An elevated risk of rip currents will occur through most of the
period.

Strong winds, especially near the coast, will be possible late
Thursday through early Friday behind a cold front.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
behind the late week cold front. Dry air will surge into the
ranchlands Thursday night, and will push farther east Friday
morning, while winds remain strong.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-282215-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from
20 to 60 nm-
Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from
20 to 60 nm-
402 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Patchy sea fog will be possible across the Laguna Madre and
nearshore waters each night through midweek.

Small Craft Advisories are possible Thursday and Friday ahead of
and behind a cold front. Strong southerly winds ahead of the front
are expected Thursday before turning northwesterly Thursday night
with building seas Thursday night into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.