Showers and thunderstorms developed along a warm front during the evening hours. Some of the storms produced locally heavy rainfall.
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The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed along a warm front during the evening hours. Some of the storms produced locally heavy rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 12, 2:57 PM EST, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 357 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Several rounds of showers and storms continue into Friday night and Saturday before the warm frontal boundary shifts further south. Rain chances decrease Saturday night before returning Sunday, especially Sunday night with upper level energy moving through. The pattern will trend drier through the start of the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Broken line of showers pushes through our central OH counties by the late afternoon. There are additional showers firing off in Kentucky and pushing into southern OH. Across our fa, SBCAPE values will increase to around 500 J/kg and may even approach 1000 J/kg in some locations. This will help fuel the potential for thunderstorm development, but, in general, the environment is lacking the parameters that would be conducive to producing severe thunderstorms. Instead, the lower wind shear values, coupled with deep-layer moisture (PWATs between 1.5" to 1.7" range) will create an environment that will produce some slower moving soakers. Repeated rounds of showers, especially where storms develop, could create some minor flooding issues. Given that the overall forcing remains weak, flood risk remains low through today and tonight as any hydro issues should remain more isolated. Shower/storm coverage lessens overnight, but the warm frontal boundary remains draped across Ohio which will keep spotty precip around. Bufkit soundings do show saturation increasing through the lowest levels down to the surface, which may create some misty conditions late overnight into Saturday morning, slightly reducing visibility in spots. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Frontal boundary begins to sink further south on Saturday. Some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may linger across portions of west-central OH early in the day before shifting more towards the OH River later in the afternoon/evening. Once again, parameters not particularly favorable for producing strong storms. PWATs do still remain around the 1.5" range however, so could be some heavy downpours with any thunderstorm that forms. Dewpoints remain above 60 degrees through most of the day, but we will start to observe a decline in humidity values late afternoon into the evening across central OH with the front sliding southward. Daytime highs will continue to trend several degrees above climatological normals. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 12Z guidance has trended towards the drier side for Sunday. There still is some potential to see some storms get into the Tri-State, mainly west and south of Cincinnati, but even that chance looks fairly low. There could be quite a bit of cloud cover but dry air at the surface is going to be difficult to overcome. Stronger forcing with a southeastward moving short wave passes across the region on Sunday night may be sufficient to have some showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the southern counties. Thereafter, expect an extended period of dry conditions. A short wave pivoting into the base of an eastern Canada long wave trough will push a front through Tuesday night, but indications are that this will be moisture starved. Next significant short wave will be dropping southeast out of the Northern Plains on Thursday and approaching the region on Friday. While there are some timing differences with this, it does present the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Several rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms expected, particularly through the first half of the taf period. A broken line of light showers currently moving through KCMH/KLCK, with additional shower development occurring now near the Tristate. The showers further south will have a better chance to develop some thunder with instability rising this afternoon/evening. Note that most terminals will observe repeated rounds of precipitation, especially through the early overnight hours. Vsby reductions possible with the heavier rainfall. Late this evening, moisture increases near the surface and will provide lower CIGs and even some MVFR vsby reductions due to BR. CIGs likely to drop into IFR category, with guidance suggesting LIFR potential, especially at KILN/KDAY. Held off on including LIFR for now to see if this signal persists. Rain coverage will wane overnight, but there will still be some spotty showers around to keep a VCSH mention. Main axis of pcpn will shift south on Saturday, so mainly expecting additional precip development at KCVG/KLUK, and perhaps KILN. As the front sags southward early Saturday, winds will shift more towards the NE. CIGs gradually improve through the late morning hours Saturday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms and occasional MVFR conditions are possible on Saturday, and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM... AVIATION...Clark
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 419 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 OHZ026-034-035-043>046-051>056-062>065-073-074-082-130830- Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami- Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Greene-Fayette OH- Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Pike- 419 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast today into tonight. Heavy rain will be possible which may result in localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-060-061-070>072- 077>081-088-130830- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Darke-Preble-Montgomery- Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Scioto- 419 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast today into tonight. Heavy rain will be possible which may result in localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. A system will have the potential to move through the region on Sunday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this feature, however damaging winds will be a possibility. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed on Sunday.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Standing high water was reported on several roads.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1092518.