Thunderstorms developing in the evening of March 31 resulted in multiple weather hazards. Trees were downed and property was damaged from thunderstorm wind gusts.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developing in the evening of March 31 resulted in multiple weather hazards. Trees were downed and property was damaged from thunderstorm wind gusts. In the days that followed, storm damage surveys teams confirmed multiple tornadoes has moved through.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 6:54 PM EST, 3 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
754 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 752 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023
Severe thunderstorms are expected late this evening into the early
overnight hours. The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts
with an isolated tornado or 2 possible. Be sure to have multiple
ways to receive weather alerts.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 752 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023
Line of showers and storms continues to quickly move NE ahead of
the advancing warm front. The majority have behaved themselves,
but a few cells have managed some rotation, supporting vigorous
updrafts sufficient for up to golf ball size hail. These will
exit the area over the next hour or 2 with confidence low on how
much additional convection may develop in the warm sector prior to
the arrival of the main show expanding across central IL. One
cell trying to get going in Miami county as of writing this. All
modes of severe would be possible with any storms ahead of the
main line. Our main show most likely will come from the central IL
storms with hi res modeling suggesting potential for several
swaths of strong wind across the S. Impacts in the NW from this
line are uncertain, with them possibly needing to wait for
convection across NW IL. Suffice to say, severe threat not over
with, especially across the moderate risk area and into the
enhanced risk. Just how far NE the convection makes it remains
uncertain and will be monitored.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023
There are no significant changes in the near-term forecast thinking
for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening (see AFD
update from this morning). Convection is well underway to the west
and our surface observations indicate favorable conditions.
Supercells moving through central IL are being monitored, should
they enter our forecast area within the next few hours.
Alternatively, additional development is favored on some high-res
guidance. These would be the supercells capable of all hazards.
POPs were adjusted this evening to refine the QLCS timing, which
looks to move from west from about 9p to 1a EDT. Damaging wind
gusts remain the primary concern, along with embedded tornadoes.
Very windy and cold on Saturday in the wake of a tight thermal
gradient aloft as the upper-level trough becomes negatively tilted
and lifts northeast. Most model guidance favors strong wind gusts
mixing down from about 850mb, resulting in wind gusts of 40 to 50
mph. Two periods where gusts of 55 mph are possible is behind the
cold front tonight, along the US 24 corridor as the dry slow moves
overhead. The second period is Saturday afternoon downwind of the
lake as the surface low occludes and a secondary thermal trough
aloft moves in. In fact, an argument could be made for a high wind
warning adjacent to the lake, but the duration is likely shortlived.
Thus, the wind advisory remains most representative of this wind
event. One area that might struggle to see wind gusts of 45 mph is
far northeast IN and far south-central MI. Blending a variety of
model guidance and peppering in some 90th percentile National Blend,
I am still coming up short there with gusts closer to 40 mph
instead. With the expected precipitation, there will be less mixing-
down of the stronger wind gusts. There will also be passing rain and
snow showers on Saturday. Delightful. No snow accumulation is
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023
Wind gusts subside Saturday evening. High pressure moves in through
at least Monday morning. Thereafter, the weather pattern become
active with WAA over much of the Mississippi River valley and a warm
front lifting into our CWA Monday night or so. This brings the
chance of rain to the forecast, which lingers through Midweek when a
low lifts through the Central Plains and Midwest. We look to be in
the warm sector of this storm, so, there will be the chance for
thunderstorms both ahead and along the cold front. The late-week
period is cooler behind the front, but soon rebounds in the wake of
a departing surface high.
There will be several warm days early in the week as ridging builds
in and WAA washes over the area. Highs will be well into the 60s on
Monday, with highs in the 70s likely for some on Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023
Band of showers and isolated storms, associated with the
approaching warm front, was clearing KFWA and will clear KFWA in
the next hour resulting in leaving out of 00Z TAFs. Confidence low
on additional development of storms prior to arrival of
intensifying line of storms racing NE out of central Illinois, set
to arrive into the area after 2Z. This line may mainly impact KFWA
but will be close with damaging winds and a threat for an
isolated tornado will be the main concerns with these storms for a
1 to 2 hour period. Other storms in NW IL may move NE and not
impact KSBN but will monitor trends closely.
Once the storms clear later this evening, a period of VFR cigs
may settle in prior to arrival of colder air and drop to MVFR.
With greater concern on convection right now, only minor changes
made beyond the main period of focus.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory from 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ to 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/
Saturday for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-
103-104-116-203-204-216.
MI...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for MIZ078>081-177-
277.
OH...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
LMZ043-046.
&&
UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Fisher
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www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndianaHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 948 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204- 216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-011400- Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall- Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington- Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte- Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte- Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI- Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams- Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH- 948 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 /848 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023/ ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms late this afternoon and early tonight can produce damaging wind gusts. Tornadoes are possible as well. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. LMZ043-046-011400- New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI- 948 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of southeastern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Small Craft Advisory. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1129 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1055 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW KEWANNA 41.00N 86.45W
03/31/2023 FULTON IN EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE ACROSS ROAD.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1144 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0955 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 WNW BADGER GROVE 40.61N 87.03W
03/31/2023 WHITE IN EMERGENCY MNGR
2 HOMES DESTROYED AND SEVERAL DAMAGED.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1145 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1145 PM FLASH FLOOD SOUTH BEND 41.68N 86.27W
03/31/2023 ST. JOSEPH IN TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTS LOTS OF FLOODING UP AND DOWN
MIAMI ST IN SOUTH BEND. AT LEAST 6-8 INCHES
DEEP.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1146 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1112 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW BENTON 41.52N 85.78W
03/31/2023 ELKHART IN PUBLIC
2 FT DIAMETER TREE DOWNED. POWERLINES DOWNED
AND TRAIN RAILCARS FLIPPED OVER.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1152 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1020 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SW ROYAL CENTER 40.82N 86.54W
03/31/2023 CASS IN EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED AT 875W AND 400N.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1153 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1130 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NNE FORT WAYNE 41.12N 85.11W
03/31/2023 M62 MPH ALLEN IN AMATEUR RADIO
&&The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:51 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Brief EF0 tornado develops south of Road 424 and tracks rapidly|north, crossing the Maumee river. Several homes with minor roof|and siding damage. Numerous trees uprooted and snapped along this|path.
Emergency manager reports a semi was blown over.
Emergency manager reports a semi was blown over.
Emergency manager reports two large trees were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Ohio, 2023Warnings in Ohio, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1086304, 1086318, 1086319, 1086320.