Flash Flood and Heavy Rain in New Mexico, August 23 to 24, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1112 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are likely today as the remnants of
tropical storm Harold move through the area. Expect moderate and at
times heavy precipitation that could lead to localize flooding.
The temperatures will be well below the normal with this tropical
system in the vicinity. The temperatures will gradually increase
to at and above the normal with the rains chances decreasing the
rest of the period with this weekend being the hottest over the
next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Currently, showers and thunderstorms are rolling through the area
as the remnants of tropical storm Harold begin to move in. For
today, expect wide spread showers and thunderstorms with the bulk
of the moisture across the area. Many place will have overcast
skies around sun rise with low ceilings due to this tropical
feature in the vicinity. There will not be a lot of instability
will this system; however, there will be some embedded
thunderstorms that could produce heavy rainfall, which could will
lead to localize flooding. There will be some shear with more of
a stable mid level lapse rate. The main concern with this system
today will be flooding in areas under heavy downpours and areas
with pour drainages. Expect anywhere between 0.5 to 1.0 inches of
rainfall by the end of the day as this system gradually moves
across south western New Mexico. Also, I can't completely rule out
a weak tornado or funnel cloud this afternoon should the
instability increase with some breaks in the sun. Any thing will
be possible with this system as it moves along the southwestern
periphery of a ridge of high pressure centered across parts of the
midwest and central southeast. With increased cloud coverage and
rain-cooled air, the high temperatures this afternoon will be
well below the normal for this time of the year. For tonight, the
center of the tropical system will be located across eastern
Arizona. Moisture will continue to wrap around the low, which
will aide in more showers and a few thunderstorms across much of
the area. However, due to the location of the low, areas west of
the Rio Grande will see the bulk of the precipitation. The winds
will be generally light except in and around thunderstorms. Cloud
coverage will inhibit radiational cooling in some areas; however,
rain-cooled air will cause the low temperatures on Thursday
morning to be below the climatological average especially for most
lowland locations.

For Thursday, active weather will continue as this system drift
across northeastern Arizona. Conditions by then will not be that
active as today as much of the moisture will be mostly over
eastern and northeastern Arizona. There will be better instability
on Thursday that will aide in better thunderstorm developing
across the area. There will be a chance for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across the much of the CWA with more of the focus
over the mountains and across west of the Rio Grande. The high
temperatures on Thursday afternoon will still be below the average
but not as cool as what they will be today. The winds will be
mainly light and from the south except in and around
thunderstorms. For the rest of the period, there will be continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms as the center of the ridge
maneuvers across the country. By the end of the week, the ridge
will be located across the Central Plains with a trough across the
Pacific West. With these two systems in place, moisture will be
advected from the south aiding in showers and thunderstorm
chances. The upper level ridge by this weekend will shift across
the our area that may cut off precipitation chances mainly for the
lowlands; however, the mountains will see a few storms during the
course of the weekend. The temperatures will increase this
weekend with subsidence aloft. By early next week, the upper
level ridge will shift across to the West and as it does, residual
moisture coupled with daytime heating will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to the develop first across the mountains and then
over the lowlands. Between Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, a
cold front will move down from the north that will also bring a
few showers and thunderstorms by then. Overall, our area will see
the temperatures be at and below the normal through the end of the
week; however, the temperatures will increase to above the normal
by this weekend with daily rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Tropical system remnants still moving through the region with best
rainfall along and east of the Rio Grande with P6SM -SHRA
SCT060-080 BKN080-100. Expect rain to continue shifting NE through
the afternoon with some breaks in the clouds expected at least
over Hudspeth and Otero counties, possibly into El Paso. Where
some sun comes out, some strong thunderstorms with 1-3SM +TSRA
BKN020-030 possible. Rain should move out of the area by 06Z with
just a few showers lingering into the morning hours. Winds north
to northeast 5-15KTS but becoming light and more east to southeast
by the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023

For today, a fairly good amount of moisture will be be in place
due to the remnants of tropical storm Harold that will be moving
through the area. Showers and thunderstorms will be expected
throughout the day. The 20ft winds will be mostly light except
across the west slopes of the high terrains with the temperatures
well below the normal. Tonight recovery will be excellent. For
Thursday, the moisture will decrease while still being good
across the area. There will also be continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms especially in the mountains and areas west of
the Rio Grande. The 20ft winds will be light with below average
temperatures. Thursday overnight recovery will be very good to
excellent. For the rest of the period, the winds will be light as
moisture decrease each consecutive days. The temperatures will
increase to at and above the normal though the weekend. There will
be chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the
week and into the weekends. With that said, there will be no fire
weather concerns across the entire area through the end of the
period.

The min RHs today will be above 30% in the lowlands and above 50%
in the mountains. The mid RHs on Thursday will be decrease 15 to
20% across the entire. The ventilation rates will be poor to
excellent today then poor to very good on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80  71  92  72 / 100  50  40  30
Sierra Blanca            76  62  83  62 / 100  40  60  20
Las Cruces               74  65  89  68 / 100  70  50  40
Alamogordo               76  64  89  65 /  80  70  50  30
Cloudcroft               56  49  67  49 /  90  80  80  20
Truth or Consequences    72  65  84  67 /  90  90  70  40
Silver City              68  59  81  62 / 100  80  90  50
Deming                   74  63  89  67 /  90  60  60  40
Lordsburg                74  61  87  67 /  90  70  70  50
West El Paso Metro       77  69  89  72 / 100  50  40  30
Dell City                78  66  89  65 / 100  50  50  10
Fort Hancock             78  66  91  67 / 100  30  50  20
Loma Linda               72  63  82  64 / 100  40  60  20
Fabens                   77  67  90  68 / 100  30  40  20
Santa Teresa             75  66  87  68 / 100  50  40  40
White Sands HQ           77  68  88  70 / 100  70  70  40
Jornada Range            73  64  87  66 /  90  70  70  40
Hatch                    74  64  89  67 / 100  80  80  40
Columbus                 73  64  88  67 /  90  50  50  40
Orogrande                77  64  87  65 /  90  60  60  30
Mayhill                  65  54  78  54 /  90  70  80  20
Mescalero                67  52  77  52 /  90  70  80  30
Timberon                 63  51  75  52 /  90  70  80  20
Winston                  66  56  75  57 /  90  90  90  40
Hillsboro                74  60  84  62 / 100  90  80  50
Spaceport                72  63  87  64 /  90  80  80  40
Lake Roberts             71  53  79  54 / 100  80  90  60
Hurley                   74  61  85  64 / 100  70  80  40
Cliff                    72  56  88  58 / 100  80  80  40
Mule Creek               72  58  81  61 /  90  80  80  40
Faywood                  73  61  84  65 / 100  70  80  40
Animas                   74  61  89  65 /  90  50  60  40
Hachita                  72  61  88  65 /  90  50  60  40
Antelope Wells           72  60  89  64 /  80  40  50  40
Cloverdale               69  58  86  62 /  80  40  50  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1136 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-241745-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1136 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms have
the potential to produce isolated instances of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the
weekend, generally favoring area mountains. Localized flooding
will be possible. Additionally, temperatures will rise back into
the mid 90s across the lowlands

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed but any reports are
welcomed.