Drought in Nebraska, May 1 to 31, 2023

Name: Drought in Nebraska, May 1 to 31, 2023
Start: 2023-05-01T00:00
End: 2023-05-31T23:59
Location: Nebraska

May 1 to 31, 2023 · NWS GID · 24 events in 24 counties and zones

S. Drought Monitor (USDM), marking the first time in 10 years (since April 2013) that the ENTIRE area was briefly blanketed by D2-or-worse.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 24 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 24

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.

During May 2023, the entire 24-county South Central Nebraska domain spent at least the vast majority of the month assigned at least Severe Drought (D2) by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), marking the first time in 10 years (since April 2013) that the ENTIRE area was briefly blanketed by D2-or-worse. On a more recent note, this also marked the 16th consecutive month that D2 plagued at least some portion of the local area. However, of greater concern during May was the increasing coverage of both Extreme Drought (D3) and worst-off Exceptional Drought (D4). By month's end, at least portions of 16 counties were afflicted with D3-or-worse and at least portions of 10 counties contained D4. This also marked the greatest areal coverage of cumulative D3+D4 within South Central Nebraska in exactly a decade, as a gradually-worsening drought situation over the last few years ratcheted up another notch. Although drought clearly worsened during May especially for central and eastern portions of the area, it was actually not bad news for the entirety of South Central Nebraska as a handful of far western and northern counties managed to pick up near-to-slightly-above normal rainfall, prompting limited drought improvement (see below for more May precipitation details). Focusing on county-level USDM drought category specifics during May, the first two USDM issuances of the month featured mainly degradation. Among the most notable early-month changes included the conversion of a lingering stripe of previously-better-off Moderate Drought (D1) within the majority of most far southern local counties to a mix of D2/D3. In fact, much of especially Webster/Nuckolls/Thayer counties saw a rapid two-category degradation between the April 25th and May 9 USDM issuances. At mid-month, the May 16th USDM actually featured some limited improvement in far northern/western areas, as D3 improved to D2 in parts of mainly Valley/Greeley/Dawson counties. Thereafter, the final two USDM maps of May featured primarily additional degradation in eastern areas, as D3 expanded westward to now include all-or-most of central counties such as Adams and Hall, and D4 also ballooned westward out of extreme northeast counties to now include all-or-most of Nance/Merrick/Hamilton/Clay/Fillmore counties. The only late-month positive note involved a fairly small slice of western Furnas County, which saw a mix of D2-to-D1 and D3-to-D2 improvement. At month's end, things stood as follows: 1) Worst-off D3/D4 dominated most counties along/east of Highway 281, with D4 most concentrated within areas both north of Highway 6/east of Highway 14...2) The vast majority of counties west of Highway 281 (along with most of Greeley/Howard counties) featured D2, except for the sliver of better-off D1 in western Furnas County.

Turning to May 2023 precipitation details, while the majority of South Central Nebraska received below normal rainfall, the overall-biggest story was a significant disparity between far western/northern counties (near to above normal) and a few far eastern counties (incredibly dry). For sure, there was quite a bit of variability across the area, as the majority of the 24-county domain registered anywhere from 1-5 inches, or about 20-115 percent of normal. More specifically, around 80% of the area saw at least slightly below normal May precipitation, with nearly half of the domain registering less than half of normal. However, by far the worst-off real estate included parts of several eastern and a few central counties (particularly York/Fillmore/Hamilton/Polk/Nuckolls/Clay/Adams), where most places received no more than one-third to even LESS THAN ONE-FOURTH of normal! Just to highlight a few lowlights for long-term NWS stations, York notched its DRIEST MAY ON RECORD out of 131 years with merely 0.42, and Hastings airport endured its 5th-driest May on record (out of 127) with 1.22. More notably, both Hastings and York endured their 4th-driest March-May (meteorological spring) on record with merely 2.90 and 2.93, respectively (30-35% of normal). Getting back to May-only data, on the much more fortunate end of the rain gauge, near to even slightly above normal amounts fell within several far western/northern counties including Furnas/Harlan/Gosper/western Dawson/Sherman/Valley. Per around 150 NWS and NeRAIN/CoCoRaHS observers, some of the most pitiful May totals included: 0.42 near York and also near Grafton, 0.43 at McCool Junction, 0.45 near Tobias (in extreme eastern Fillmore County) and 0.53 near Hampton. In sharp contrast, among the very-wettest amounts from the limited above normal areas featured: 7.06 in Alma, 6.23 near Orleans, 6.04 six miles west of Elyria and 5.95 in Beaver City.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 11:53 PM CST, 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 11:53 PM CST, 7 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1253 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

- FIRE WEATHER:
Today's Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire "on time" at 8 PM.

It still appears that MOST of our coverage area (CWA) will be
"safe" from outright-critical fire weather thresholds on Monday
afternoon due mainly to lighter (but still breezy) winds, but a
few hours of marginally-critical conditions cannot be ruled out in
limited areas. Please refer to the separate Fire Weather section
below for more details.

- THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST/FREEZE CONCERNS:
Have made very little (hardly any) change to the overnight
forecast inherited from day shift. As a result, the CWA-wide
Freeze Warning continues as-is, as most of the CWA is expected to
at least briefly bottom out in the 28-32 degrees range (and some
typically-colder spots could easily drop a bit lower than this).
Actual FROST development is a bit more in question (the airmass
has been so dry lately that it has been difficult to generate more
than very patchy frost on our colder nights), but our official
forecast still highlights the potential for "widespread frost"
across various parts of the area, as that possibility certainly
exists.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

Key Messages:

* Red Flag Warning in effect today until 8PM.

* Freeze Warning issued for tonight into Monday morning. Another
  sub-freezing night is likely Monday night into Tuesday morning.

* A warming trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday with low-
  mid 80s for highs Thursday. Periodic chances for rain and/or
  thunderstorms Wednesday evening through next weekend.

Widespread northwest winds gusting 30-40 mph have developed
across the forecast area and relative humidity values are in the
low 20s...a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM this
evening.

Tonight...
The Red Flag Warning will expire as the wind decreases, then
temperatures will drop off significantly. While some areas in
north central Kansas will just barely drop to or just below
freezing, further north temperatures will fall to the mid to upper
20s, and in those areas such as from Lexington to Ord, a hard
freeze is possibly if not likely. This will be cold enough to kill
any small plants left outside.

Monday...
The upper low over the Great Lakes will continue to move east,
helping to relax the pressure gradient and decrease the winds.
High pressure near the surface will keep conditions dry and
mostly cloud free. Winds will be strong enough and the area will
be dry enough that widespread near-critical fire weather
conditions are expected. That being said, winds may not be strong
enough to do more than perhaps very isolated and fleeting critical
fire weather conditions along and east of a line extending from
Ord to Grand Island...locations further south-southwest are
expected to have lighter winds. High temperatures will be in the
lower 60s north and the upper 60s south. We may very well need
some kind of frost and/or freeze product Monday night into Tuesday
morning, with most of the area once again forecast to be below
freezing.

Tuesday through Thursday...
After a cold start Tuesday morning, high pressure over the area
will allow temperatures to rebound quickly, especially with
relatively light winds expected. The upper level ridging will
build over the area through Thursday, with increasing highs
throughout. Highs Tuesday will be mainly in the 60s Tuesday, the
70s Wednesday, and the low-mid 80s Thursday. Conditions will be
dry through Wednesday before a disturbance moves across the area
Wednesday evening bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Friday through next weekend...
From here on out, things depend on how quickly the upper ridge
breaks down. If, as indicated by the EC run, it is slower to break
down, the chances of precipitation over the area are reduced with
the bulk of the moisture missing to the north and east Friday. If
it is slightly faster as suggested by the GFS, there will be a
greater chance of precipitation over the area Friday. Saturday and
Sunday, confidence is a little higher of an upper trough impacting
the area and bringing showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
remain warm with highs in the 70s Friday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon May 1 2023

Not much change from the on going pattern the last few days, which
has featured clear skies, light winds overnight, and then gusty
northwesterly winds during the day time hours. VFR conditions will
continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

Monday afternoon:
Widespread near-critical fire weather conditions will develop
across most of the outlook area, due to northwest winds gusting at
least 20-30 MPH and relative humidity dropping as low as 15-25
percent. Although parts of mainly the northeast half of the
outlook area (especially along an axis running roughly from
Ord/Loup City southeastward through the Tri Cities and toward
Geneva/Hebron) could meet marginally-critical fire weather
conditions for a few hours, lighter winds than the last couple of
days should help limit the overall fire danger level.

Tuesday afternoon: Winds will be even lighter yet, but some
marginally near- critical fire weather conditions could still
materialize mainly within counties east of the Highway 281
corridor, which are most favored to see northerly wind gusts
around 20 MPH and relative humidity as low as 20-25 percent.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

-- ONE OF THE VERY-DRIEST APRILS ON RECORD IN THE TRI CITIES!

We have compiled the final April precip totals for our official
Tri Cities airport stations, and the results are not "pretty" at
all, with both Grand Island/Kearney having a Top-3 DRIEST APRIL!

- Grand Island:
Only 0.15"...3RD-DRIEST APRIL on record of 128...driest since
0.09" in 1989!

- Kearney:
Only 0.20"...2ND-DRIEST APRIL on record of 128...driest since
0.05" in 1989!

- Hastings:
0.69"...14th-driest April on record of 126...driest since 0.33" in
1990
(side note: due mainly to a very localized/slow-moving
thunderstorm on the 9th, our NWS office just north of the city
ended up with 1.86" for the month, but this total was definitely
NOT representative of what fell in most of the city).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 30, 7:26 PM CST, 4 hours 34 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
826 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
011200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
826 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

The entire outlook area is under a Freeze Warning through 9 AM
Monday. Please refer to the Warning statement for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A Freeze Warning will remain in effect through 9 AM Monday. Then,
late Monday night into Tuesday morning, another round of slightly
sub-freezing temperatures and/or frost development will again
occur,but this could end up being one of the final frost/freeze
threats of the spring.

On Monday afternoon, widespread near-critical fire weather
conditions will develop across most of the outlook area, due to
northwest winds gusting at least 20 to 30 MPH and relative
humidity dropping as low as 15 to 25 percent. Although parts of
mainly the northeast half of the outlook area could meet
marginally-critical fire weather conditions for a few hours,
lighter winds than the last couple of days should help limit the
overall fire danger level.

On Tuesday afternoon, winds will be even lighter yet, but some
marginally near-critical fire weather conditions could still
materialize mainly within counties east of the Highway 281
corridor, which are most favored to see northerly wind gusts
around 20 MPH and relative humidity as low as 20 to 25 percent.

Between Wednesday evening and Saturday, there will be
several, off-and-on chances for thunderstorms within the area.
It is too soon to confidently assess the potential for any severe
storms, but at least for now, there are no days or nights that
look particularly concerning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Pfannkuch

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

24 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Valley

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Valley forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.567, -98.982 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Greeley

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Greeley forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.567, -98.521 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Nance

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Nance forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.397, -97.992 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Sherman

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Sherman forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.221, -98.976 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Howard

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Howard forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.220, -98.517 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Merrick

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Merrick forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.170, -98.038 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Polk

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Polk forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 41.187, -97.568 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Dawson

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Dawson forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.870, -99.820 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Buffalo

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Buffalo forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.855, -99.075 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Hall

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Hall forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.873, -98.502 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Hamilton

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Hamilton forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.874, -98.023 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, York

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: York forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.873, -97.597 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Gosper

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Gosper forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.515, -99.831 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Phelps

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Phelps forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.511, -99.414 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Kearney

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Kearney forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.507, -98.948 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Adams

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Adams forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.525, -98.501 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Clay

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Clay forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.524, -98.051 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Fillmore

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Fillmore forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.525, -97.596 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Furnas

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Furnas forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.177, -99.912 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Harlan

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Harlan forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.177, -99.405 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Franklin

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Franklin forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.176, -98.953 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Nuckolls

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Nuckolls forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.176, -98.047 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Thayer

When: May 1, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Thayer forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.176, -97.595 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Webster

When: May 2, 12:00 AM CST to May 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Webster forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 40.176, -98.500 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Nebraska in 2023 Every state in 2023 This day in weather history Warnings in Nebraska, May 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1096257, 1096258, 1096259, 1096260, 1096261, 1096262, 1096263, 1096264, 1096265, 1096266, 1096267, 1096268, 1096269, 1096270, 1096271, 1096272, 1096273, 1096274, 1096275, 1096276, 1096277, 1096278, 1096279, 1096280.