A weak cold front sparked a few thunderstorms during the evening across southwest Minnesota, which strengthened just enough to produce isolated large hail near Jackson.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
A weak cold front sparked a few thunderstorms during the evening across southwest Minnesota, which strengthened just enough to produce isolated large hail near Jackson.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 29, 4:55 PM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 555 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 KEY MESSAGES 1. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening and overnight with a lower end threat of strong storms. 2. Almost daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the week with far more dry periods than wet. 3. Above normal temperatures continue with highs in the 80s to near 90. Rest of Afternoon/Evening: Memorial Day featuring weather typical of the unofficial start to summer this year with sunshine and temperatures in the 80s this afternoon giving way to scattered thunderstorm chances later. Mesoanalysis suggest only a weak to non- existent cap in place but not much of focus to more substantial lift to cause anything more than a Cu field at this time other than weaker convection exiting into MN. Forecast soundings and short range guidance suggest this weak cap erodes further and thus at least slight chance POPs become justified most locations by late afternoon/early evening. With this said, a couple of different waves may provide for a bit better focus of convection chances deeper into the evening hours. Main mid level wave is currently evident on WV imagery lifting into the western Dakotas with a secondary weaker wave progged to slide east through Nebraska this evening. This may set up two foci for better thunderstorm coverage, one near and north of Hwy 14 and another near and south of the MO River. This idea is further supported by several CAMS and HREF thunder probabilities. In terms of severe weather chances... deep layer shear remains weak with EBWD values of only 20-25 kts in most locations. MLCAPE does sit in the 1500-2000 J/kg, locally higher, so initial updrafts would carry the risk for up to half dollar to ping pong ball size hail before likely collapsing on themselves. Forecast soundings encroaching on inverted-V and DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg also result in a risk for wind gusts up to 60-70 mph, but again, with a lack of shear, organization will be tough to come by. These threats are highlighted by a Marginal Risk from SPC for points near and west of I-29 and a Slight across south central SD. Tonight: Any thunderstorm activity will continue to work east overnight but will likely see a diminishing severe weather threat as instability wanes and LLJ support decreases. Overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s are expected. Tuesday: No real change in the overall pattern for Tuesday with thermal profiles again favoring high temperatures in the 80s, perhaps making a run at 90 in some locations. Atmosphere largely only weakly capped, if at all, by late afternoon again but no real trigger for convection. Will keep low end POPs for any rogue storm chance. The better chance of convection likely arrives into the late evening and overnight hours as another wave lifts northeast out of Nebraska and should result in expanding thunderstorms. Similar threats to today's in terms of severe weather but overall remains on the low side. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Wednesday through Sunday: The upper level flow pattern remains weak into the weekend with upper level ridging trying to back westward into the region. This may ultimately keep any late week shower and thunderstorm chances more on the isolated to scattered side but with weak waves in the flow and an atmosphere only weakly capped, likely one with daily rain chances. Timing of any thunderstorm chances will be much more nebulous with likely at least some favor to the late afternoon and evening diurnal periods. High temperatures again remain fairly steady state, or 80s to near 90s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 551 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight. Confidence in exact timing/location is low. Much of the day on Tuesday will be dry, with possible isolated/scattered thunderstorm development again toward the end of TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && SHORT TERM...Kalin LONG TERM...Kalin AVIATION...JM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 447 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032-MNZ072-080-081-089-090-301000- Osceola-Dickinson-O'Brien-Clay-Cherokee-Buena Vista-Ida-Lyon- Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- 447 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, and southwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There will be scattered thunderstorms from this evening into the overnight. A couple of storms may produce up to dime size late this evening but severe weather is not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening. Small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible but severe weather is unlikely. There will be continued chances for primarily late afternoon and evening thunderstorms into next weekend. At this time, severe weather is unlikely with these storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. IAZ001-012-020-031-MNZ071-097-098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050- 052>071-301000- Lyon-Sioux-Plymouth-Woodbury-Lincoln-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota- Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake- Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix- Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-Union- 447 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the James River late this afternoon. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a couple of storms could produce hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph. These storms will move east toward I-29 with storms continuing overnight. While severe weather is unlikely, hail up to 1 inch in diameter will be possible through midnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday There is a chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Severe weather is not expected with these storms. There will be continued chances for primarily late afternoon and evening thunderstorms into next weekend. At this time, severe weather is unlikely with these storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is possible after 4 pm. Schumacher
The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 140 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:11 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Occasional hail fell over a long period, at times reaching as large as penny to quarter size.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1102032.