Drought continued from July in NW MN. It worsened to D3 by mid August, with the D3 area covering 2 counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Drought continued from July in NW MN. It worsened to D3 by mid August, with the D3 area covering 2 counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 10:35 PM CST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1135 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 .UPDATE... Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Batch of clouds that was in NW ND is now into SE ND and going from mid clouds to some patchy high clouds. Otherwise skies clear and winds are picking up from the southwest and therefore agree that risk of fog tonight is minimal. UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Area of mid/high clouds dropping southeast thru northwest and north central ND at 23z....and this cloud batch will drop south- southeast this evening. Other than that feature remaining diurnal CU will dissipate. Winds light this evening but more consistent SW 5-10 kts overnight and this should prevent any AM fog formation. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Hazardous weather is not anticipated today through Tuesday night. Surface ridge over the area this afternoon will migrate south tonight. A gradually increasing pressure gradient in the wake of the departing ridge will help keep winds from going calm tonight into Tuesday morning. This will hamper overall chances for fog tonight, with less than a 10% chance of occurring. This tightening pressure gradient comes ahead of a glancing brush with a frontal boundary/weak surface trough moving through Manitoba into western Ontario. This front is forecast to slowly dip into and stall within MN into the Red River Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening. Current expectations are for the vast majority of forcing to remain in Canada, along with notable convective inhibition and meager instability. For these reasons, there is only around a 10% chance for sustained convection near the international border Tuesday afternoon/early evening, with this 10% mainly stemming from enough low level convergence near the stalling front to spark a shower or weak storm to life before peak daytime mixing. Warming temperatures aloft begin to advect into our area from the southwest starting Tuesday, aiding in warm temperatures well into the 80s, potentially into the low 90s within the Red River Valley into eastern North Dakota. The pressure gradient Tuesday night continues to increase ahead of a more substantial cold fropa to come Wednesday. This will help keep winds elevated during the overnight hours Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Key Messages: - A cold front Wednesday will provide a chance for showers and thunderstorms, along with windy conditions. - The forecast is trending toward above average temperatures along with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms late this week, and possibly beyond. Discussion: A potent shortwave trough will move southeast through the Canadian Prairie Provinces into Ontario Wednesday and Thursday. This will send a notable cold front through the area on Wednesday, increasing winds both ahead and behind the front, with higher winds behind the front out of the northwest over 30 mph. Based on global and medium range guidance, along with potential for deep, post-frontal mixing, there is currently around a 40% chance for winds to exceed 40 mph within the Devils Lake basin Wednesday afternoon. The shortwave trough and attendant cold front will help attempt spark convection near the front itself. Considering the magnitude in air mass change and momentum of the front, lift for ascent should be plenty. However, most guidance advects a plume of very warm and relatively dry low level air mass ahead of the front into our area. This is expected to inhibit more widespread, robust convection near the surface. Despite the capping that should be in place, the amount of forcing for ascent should help create showers and thunderstorms, especially closer to the international border where forcing is relatively higher and furthest away from the very dry/warm air mass within our local area. So with this in mind, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with the front on Wednesday, but more likely elevated in nature. This warm, dry low level air mass will also hinder instability from building more substantially, as well as introduce dry air entrainment issues with initial updrafts that try to root themselves closer to the surface. This may also play a role in coverage of precip. Should thunderstorms try and succeed in rooting themselves closer to the surface, instability of at least 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 40- 50 kt will help organize convection, introducing some potential for strong to severe storms. The chance for strong to severe storms looks to be confined to daytime, peak heating hours of the afternoon Wednesday. This places some uncertainty still in the location of potentially strong to severe storms. Should the front come through slower into our area, more of our area would hold this potential for stronger convection. However, should the front come through as advertised by majority of guidance, or faster, then the area of this potential will be within Minnesota. Overall concerns about convection becoming more surface based within our area, timing dependence of the front, and uncertainty in coverage of robust thunderstorms, will opt to not dedicate graphical messaging on this potential for now. Otherwise, Wednesday ahead of the front could also be warm, depending on if a front can move through slower than advertised. Behind Wednesday's shortwave and front, ensembles suggest upper ridging to build into the area, quickly reintroducing precip chances into the area late this week, along with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. CSU severe outlooks also highlight our area with 5% chances Friday through Monday, which will allow the possibility of strong to severe chances to incorporate into our precip chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 VFR thru the pd. Winds southwest thru Tuesday AM then westerly for a time in most locations as a weak front slips south along with some high clouds. Winds begin to go back more southwest by Tuesday evening. Speeds look to be in the 5 to 15 kt range. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...CJ LONG TERM...CJ AVIATION...Riddle
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 307 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 MNZ001>008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-152015- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk- North Clearwater-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-West Becker- East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Grant-Towner- Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson- Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent- Richland-Western Walsh- 307 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. MNZ009-017-024-032-152015- North Beltrami-South Beltrami-Hubbard-Wadena- 307 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
D2 drought began in Kittson county on August 15th. It continued through the end of the month.
D2 drought began in Roseau county on August 22nd. It continued through the end of the month.
D2 drought began in Lake of the Woods county on August 22nd. It continued through the end of the month.
D2 drought began in East Becker county on August 22nd. It continued through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1119019, 1119021, 1119022, 1119023.