A cold front passed through the area on the 7th, leading to a few showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms caused heavy rainfall in a short period of time that led to an instance of flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A cold front passed through the area on the 7th, leading to a few showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms caused heavy rainfall in a short period of time that led to an instance of flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 8:36 AM EST, 4 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 936 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Large scale troughing will build to the north and west of the region this weekend, with a cold front eventually clearing the area by Monday. High pressure will build overhead Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of mid morning, a surface trough extended north-to-south across north-central Maryland and eastern Virginia. Convergence along this trough as well as daytime heating suggests convection may initiate as early as noon-2pm for the I-95 corridor, with more numerous showers and thunderstorms likely later this afternoon. A disturbance will move through the eastern Great Lakes today. This will combine with a surface trough and the position within the right entrance region of the jet to allow for organized showers and thunderstorms to continue throughout the afternoon and perhaps into the early evening. As we get into the time frame of 3pm to 7pm, the thunderstorm coverage will likely be most numerous. There could be a little more movement in the thunderstorm activity this afternoon into this evening compared to yesterday where thunderstorms just sat over the same areas and dumped the rain. However, some thunderstorms could get stuck between the surface trough and developing bay/river breezes near the I-95 corridor. Thunderstorms could be a bit stronger than yesterday as instability will be greater, though DCAPE may be weaker. Gusty winds will be the main threat along heavy rain. Higher PWs and slow storm motions could lead to the threat of flooding or flash flooding in some places once again, particularly over the urban corridor of I-95 near and NE of DC where FFG is lowered. Thunderstorm activity will slowly dissipate over much of our region after dark with patchy fog possible overnight tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Additional thunderstorms will be possible again Saturday as another disturbance rotates through the mid-level trough off to our northwest. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 80s to near 90. A surface low pressure system may begin to form near or over the forecast area Sunday. Precipitation chances definitely increase throughout the day with abundant moisture nearby. Instability and shear look favorable for some severe thunderstorms. The Storms Prediction Center has put the eastern two-thirds of our CWA in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Current guidance is forecasting a cold front to be over or just southeast of the area Monday. Overall this will lead to much lower rain chances compared to Sunday. However, an upper level trough will still be overhead which could help spark some scattered showers or storms. High temperatures will be slightly below normal, with some noticeable relief from the weekend mugginess by Monday night. For Tuesday and Wednesday, the Mid Atlantic will be under the influence of surface high pressure in between boundaries stretched across the southeast US and Great Lakes. While subtle forcing features could result in an isolated shower or storm, these days should be mainly dry. Temperatures will return to typical July values, although dew points will remain in the lower-mid 60s. Heights will begin to lower Thursday, with a better chance of diurnal convection amidst a hot and humid airmass. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. However, thunderstorms may bring a bout of sub-VFR conditions due to heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening and again Saturday afternoon and perhaps even venturing into Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds will be relatively light out of the south outside of thunderstorms, but light out of the west near KIAD/KCHO and especially KMRB for a time this afternoon as a surface trough strengthens just to the east. Brief stronger winds driven by thunderstorms and thunderstorm outflows are possible, as well. A few afternoon t-storms are possible Monday, but overall a drying trend is expected early next week with primarily VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Light south to southeasterly winds are expected over the waters through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms appear possible each day through Sunday, with the greatest coverage in the afternoon hours. SMWs may be needed at times in association with these thunderstorms. SCAs will be possible Sunday with a tighter pressure gradient. Special Marine Warnings may be needed Sun with numerous thunderstorms expected. A cold front will push to the southeast Monday, but it's uncertain how strong winds will be behind it. A few thunderstorms are possible, but overall a drying trend will begin. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A light onshore to south flow is likely through Sunday. This will cause elevated water levels around times of high tide. The most likely scenario is for many areas to reach action stages. However, minor tidal flooding cannot be ruled out, especially at sensitive locations like Straits Point, Annapolis, and DC Southwest Waterfront. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...ADS NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF SHORT TERM...KLW LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...ADS/KLW/DHOF MARINE...ADS/KLW/DHOF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1154 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-081600- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1154 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. Scattered instances of flooding or flash flooding are possible, especially over the Baltimore and Washington metropolitan areas, where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect. Thunderstorms may also produce strong wind gusts on the waters which may require Special Marine Warnings. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, which could cause scattered instances of flooding or flash flooding. Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are also possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Rainfall, flooding, or wind damage reports would be appreciated. Spotter activation may be needed Sunday. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-081600- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 1154 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. Scattered instances of flooding or flash flooding are possible, especially over the Baltimore and Washington metropolitan areas, where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, which could cause scattered instances of flooding or flash flooding. Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are also possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Rainfall, flooding, or wind damage reports would be appreciated. Spotter activation may be needed Sunday. MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-081600- Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 1154 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon, which could cause isolated instances of flooding or flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
113 PM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0112 PM Flood 1 ESE Arlington 38.88N 77.08W
07/07/2023 Arlington VA 911 Call Center
Washington Blvd at Arlington Blvd near the underpass
closed due to high water.
&&
Event Number LWX2301326
CPBPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
128 PM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0127 PM Flood 2 NW Reagan National Ai 38.87N 77.06W
07/07/2023 Arlington VA Dept of Highways
Left two lanes of I-395 closed due to standing water.
Car stuck in high water.
&&
Event Number LWX2301327
CPBThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Ruxton Road was closed at Circle Road due to high water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Maryland in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Maryland, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1101196.